TRUONG £)~I HOC KINH TE THANH PHO HO CHi MINH Be) MaN LY THUYET TH6NG KE - THONG KE KINH TE Chu bi6n: HA VAN SON GIAo TRINH LV THUYET .'A A THONG LING DI,lNG TRONG QUAN TRI vA KE KINH TE lOOO 5000 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 C 8 ~ ~ 8 ~ ! ~g ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ N ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ R NHA XUAT BAN TH6NG KE TRUONG f)~1 HOC KINH Tt THANH PH6 HO CHr MINH eo MON LY THUYETTH6NG Ka - TH6NG KE KINH TE Chu bifm: HA VAN SdN GIAOTRINH LV THUYET THONG KE UNG DVNG TRONG QUAN TRI vA KINH TE (STATISTICS FOR MANAGEMENT AND ECONOMICS) NHA XU'T BAN TH6NG K~. 2004 L~IN61f)AU La cOng CI,I khong thEfthi6u dlf<;fCtrong hoat dQng nghi6n cuu va cOng hie thl,tc ti~n, cho n6n th6ng k6 da tr~ thanh ml)t mOn hoc c4n thi6t trong hAu h6't cac nganh dso tao. Trong cac chuy~n nganh khOi kinh t~·xa hQi, Ly thuy6't thOng k6 la mQt mOn hoc co sO bAt bUe)cc6 vj trf xung ching vol 11I<;fng thoi gian dang k~. Cling vol chfnh sach mO clla va sl,t phst trlfn clla klnh tt thi tnlong t'- chju st! dl~u ti~t clia nha mJoc, tlnh hlnh klnh xA h~i m/Clc ta dA c6 nhi~u chuy~n bifn.
TrtJoc dAy cOng tac th6ng k6 diAn ra chu yAu trong khu V!JC klnh tf nha 0I1(1c,trong cac co quan th6ng k6 nha nuec d' thu th.p thOng tin phl,lc VI,I cho vi~c. quan Iy kinh tA xi h¢i cua cac co quan chinh quyt1n cac cap. Hi~n nay cOng tac th6ng kA da cJtJ~ccnu y trong cac doanh nghi~p a tat ca cac nganh. VI~c sll dl,mg cac phllong phap thOng ke trll ntn c4n thi6't va phcSblfn.
B6n canh d6, trong xu huang he)i nh.p vol khu vtJc va th' glol, giao dl,lc d~i hoc Vi~t Nam dang tllng btJdc chuy~n minh, va dao tao th6ng ke cOng khOng nam ngoal quy d~o d6. Nhu cau vt1 mQt giao trlnh th6ng ke vlla phu hQp val di6u ki~n giang d,y va hoc t.P hi(\n nay, vua thong nhat voi chuang trinh dao tao th6ng ke kha chu~n "We tal cac mroc dang to ra cap bach. f)~ dap ung yeu c4u nghi'n cuu, glang d,y va hoc h)p cua giao vien va dOng dao sinh vi6n cac chuyen nganh kh6i kinh t€. X8 hQi, cung nhtJ y6u cau tham khao cua dOng dao cuu sinh vien va nhOng nguo! dar.g lam c6n9 tac thlJC tA, 8e) mOn Iy thuyft thong kll.
th6ng k6 kinh tfi 16 chuc bi6n so~n giao trlnh Ly thuyft thOng k~. Giao trlnh nay dU(1c xAy dl,lng vcfjj d!nh htJang ung d~ng trong kinh t~ va quan trj theo xu th~ hOi nh. Vai kinh nghi~m giang d$y dll~c tfch lOy qua nhieu nAm c¢ng vai n6 Il,Ic nghien cuu tlJ cac ngu6n tsi Ii_'u phong phu. giao trinh bi4)n s~n 14n nay c6 nhi~u thay dCS! va bd sung d' dap ung y6u c~u nAng cao chAt IUQngdao t~o d~t ra.
Tham gia bi~n 90$n g6m c6: - ThS. Ha VAn Son, chu bi'n, billn 90~n cac chtJang 6,7,8. Tr!n VAn Th6ng bi~n SO,," chuang 1. Mai Thanh loan bitn so~n chllang 5.•'Jguy6n Vin Trai bi6n s~n chllang 13.
Hoang Trong bi6n so@nchUdng 2,3,9,10. Va Thj Lan bien so~n chUang 11,12. £)~ng NgQCLan bi!n so~n chtJang 4. Chung tOi xin chAn thanh cam dn anh Hoang NgQc Nh~m, anh Tran Tuan Cuang, chi Duang Xu!n Sinh da dQCva gop y cho cuon giao trlnh nay.
M~c du cac tac gia da co nhi4u co gAng, song do kha nang co han, cling vo; nhOng thay dol va bo sung nhu v~y, chAc chAn vi~c bien soan khong tranh khoi :1hOngthi~u s6t. Chung tOi r~t bi't on va mong nh~n dll~c nhung y ki~n trao do; va d6ng g6p cua ban doc d' Ian tai ban sau gieo trlnh dll~c hoan thi~n hdn. Thu g6p Y xin gui v4 dla chi sau: SO mOn Ly Thuy~t ThOng Ke - ThOng K~ Kinh rs Khoa Toan - ThOng K6 £)~i Hoc Kinh T6 TP H6 Chf Minh, s6 91 dllong 3/2: qu~n 10. TP Hi) ChI Minh Email: hason@uch.vnho~chasondhkt@yahoo.H6 Chi Minh, nhang ngay dau xuan nam 2004 Cac tac gia Ml)C Ll)C CHI TIfT CHUONG I: GI<l1 THltU MON H(lC 1.1 THONG KI: LA Gt? I l.2 MOT 56 KHAI NltM nUNG TRONG TH6NG Kf: 2 1.1 T5ng lh~ Ih6ng k~ va dc," vi 16ng Ih~ , 2 1.2,4 Ti{':u lhllc thCing k€: , , " , 4 1.5 Chi lieu IhClng ki! 5 1.3 KHAI QUAT QuA TRINH NGHlf-:N cuu THONe; Ki: 5 1.1 Thang do dinh danh , , , " 7 IA.2 Thang do Ih(t h(lc ".3 Thang do khonng 8 1.4 Thung (10 ty Ii; ,., , 8 CHlf<1NG 2: THUTH~P Dff Llt;U TH6NG Kt .1 XAC, B1NH 0 0"Llf-U CAN ~ THU TH~P • 10 2.2 p(f usu D1NH TINH vA 00 L1~U BlNH LtJ~NG II 2.3 off Lieu THU CAP vA 00 usu MJ CAP " .1 Ngu6n diJ lieu thi c!p 13 2,3.2 Th'J th<)p dilli¢u S<1 dip IJ Di~u Ira Ihm"'ng ~uy~n v~ di~u Ira kbOng th\t()ng xuyh ,., 14 Di~u Ira loon bQ va dj~u Ira !thOng loon l>9 1-1 2.4 cAc PHl]ONG PHAp THU THA,P OUI.Itu BAN DA U J (J 2.1 Thu Ih~p lIVe lier _ 16 Quan sal 16 Phong va'n IIVl:liC'r 16 2.2 Thu t~p gian ticp : " ".5 XA• Y 0 V NG Kc"':'u n~CH DIJ:U l.1 MC> la mne dlcl~·di~u Iro : .2 Xdc djnh d6i tWng dj~u Ira v{1ltdn vi cti~u Ir:1 18 2.3 N<)idung di~u Ira , , :.4 Xac djnb tMi ctii!m.
'h~i Itt cti~u Ira ~ 19 2.5 Bi~u di~u Ira v{1bdn gi:ti tldch deb ghi bi~u ~ , 20 2.6 SAlS( TRONG DIEU TRA TH6NG tt , 21 2.1 Sai sO do d!ing k~ : , r 21 2.2 Sa; s6 do tfnb cbt(1 ~i bii!u 22 2.3 M{ll s6 bi¢n pMp chu y6u nbhm ~n cbl. sai 56 troD, c1i~uIra tbfi'ng ke 22 CHUt1NG J: T()M T.( T vA TR)NH oA Y Df! Lltu J.2 C:k hlr(k tic'n hanh phan tiL 25 3. 1LI!a chon lieu Ihl1e pMn 16 25 3.2 VAN DVNG PHlJdNG PIIAP PHAN 1'6 TRONG TOM TAT vA TRINH nAy D(f J(:u 29 3.1 TISm ~t va tdnh bAy dtr lieu dinh Unh : 29 .2 Ban, t4n s6 cO gbtp nh6m (c6 pMn 15) 29 3.2 T6m tit vll trinb bay dir li~u djnh Il11;1n& 32 3.1 Phlft1ng ph:5p nh:1nh vA 141 , 32 3.3 Cdc d~i IlI<,1nglb(ing Icc mo t:i 37 3.1 Bung IcCIhup 2 diJ li¢u djnh Hob 39 3.2 Bang kCI h\~p3 dO' li~u djnh (inh 41 3. ":lng kct hl,1" da lieu dlnb Il1qng vdi oil' lieu dinh linh , ·n 3.~ Trinh !lay kc't '{uti 16m 111ttla li~u !l?ing l'Ii~u dIL ~6 3.1 Y nghia eua !li~"A6 4(, 3.2 Cac loai d6 Ihj Ib6ng kc 46 3.3 NhiJng v:fn a~ dn chu y khi x5y dl,tllg Ilifu d6 va d6 thi thOng Icc 53 CHt.!<1NG4: M6 TA DO LltV BANG CAc DJ\C TRlfNG 90 Lu(1NG 4.1 sIS' \uy~t dtSj Ih~i <1ilm : 5!'i 4.2 so' tuy~t dlSi IlMJi Ity !'i6 4.:4 Ddn vi llnh CUllI(} luY~1do, 56 .1 E>dn vi hl~n v~t S6 4.2 Don \Ii li~n l~ : 57 4.3 Ddn v] IhlJi gian lao dl)ng S8 4.2 Cac IO\li 56 tlldng dlfi : 59 .1 SiSIIAmJ diS! ~ni tlWi : : :'19 4.2 Si$IU'dng dlS'ik~ hoilch : flO -1.4 ~ lIAfnl dffi c;~nl ~ ; 61 .c TRl1NO 00 UJlJNG KHUYNH Hl1dNG TA.1 S6lnJnl blob C;~DJ (s6lJ'UDg blnb 56 bQc ) 63 4.2 sstrun, blnh cOng aia quy~n 64 4.456 trun, blnb nbAn (s6&run& blnb hlnh bQc) 69 4.7 TlJ phin vi 75 4.8 MOL sO v5'n d~ hru 9 khi sir dung s6lU'dng Mi, .~i~ tuyel Mi, ~\\ irung blnh 78 4.4 cAc DAc TRtfNO DO LtJ~NG DO PHAN TAN : 79 4.2 Kho:ing hi!!n lhien (R} 79 4.3 DQ tnii gilla (R(J ) : 80 4.4 E>Q lech tUY¢1tl6'i trung blnh (d) 80 4.45 PhU'IIng sai : 81 4.6 HI) lech lieu chuSn 84 4.7 He s6 bien Ihien (V) 86 4A.S Kh:io sat hlnh dang phSn phOi cua day 50 87 4A.1 Phan pho! <16i xll'ng : 87 4A.2 Philo ph6'i I~ch ph:1i 87 4.3 PhSn ph6i lcch lr:ii 88 CH1X1NG5: n~.
uJ(,tNG N(;AU NHrf:N vA <:ACQUY LU~l' PHAN PHO. XAC SUAT THt)NG Dl)NG - .)~I UJ<' NO N(iAU NHU:N 89 5.)~I LUUNG N(iAU Nlllf:N 1{9 5.~T PHAN PHOl xxc XliAT ellA J-)~l LtJ(.lNCi NGAU NHJi:N 1I9 5.1I~1phan phi\i x~k su5l cua d;,1i1U'IJngngau Ilhi~n r~i rae ')() 5.\I~I phdn phi~i xac suat cua d~i 11I(1ng ng_allllhicn liell we 91 :'i.~ M<)Tso QUY LuAT PHA:-.I PH<)I XAC SUATTH()NG Dl,}NG 92. I Quy IU;'l pMo pht",i nhl.~ Quy lu~t phan phili Poisson 93 5.43 Quy I~t philo phoi chudn 94 5A.4 D~ng philn phi>i chu.1n d~ ltil'p xl phiin ph6i nh] thac va phan phcii Poisson.5 PhSn phoi Chi hlnh pilltdng (;(2 ) 9& 5.6 Pt:1n phoi Student t 99 5.7 PhSn rhOi Fisher - Sncdccor (phan phOi F ) 99 5.5 PHAN PII()I MAU 99 5.1 M{lj lien h~ gilla t<ing_Lha chong v?i t6ng tM m~u 99 55.2 Khai nicrn phSn pMi mau 101 ,';.1 Phan phc-';icua trung hlnh m!u 101 5.2 Phan ph6i ty Ie: mlu lOS CHtJdNG 6: l1"C Ll1<JNG 6.tJ(JNG KHOANG 106 6.1 Vck Itl<Jogtrung binh 16ng lh.2 tJlk ILtl,1ngty Ie; tong Ih~ 111 6.3 V~c htQng phlfdng sai cua I{lng lh~ , I J.2,4 Vt1r: lltl,1ngW k.hat:hiet gilla 2 trung blnh cua hai tdng th~ II ~ .1 TnII'1og hQp m~u phOi Jx. TnA'1ng hop m4u dQc I~p 115 6.
110c ltIQng s\t khdc bi~t giiJa hai IY Ir: t6ng lh~ 116 6. tJ& ItlQng mQt ben 117 " CHUdNG 7: f)1~U TRA CHON MAU 7.1 KHAI NleM V~ E>I~U TRA CHON MAU " "" ".2 Uu di~m vlk han che" ella di~u tra chon m~u 119 - 7.3 Sai s6crong di~u tra chon m!u : " I:!J 7. QUA TR1NH N(1Hh~N '" CuU ,', MAU ~ 12'- 7.3 XAC t)lNH KfCH THl10C MAU (cO MAU) 125 7.2 Xac dinh pharn vi sui sel C(I thl1 chli'p oMn (llt(_1c(£) 126 7.JJ Xuc dinh d~ lin c.:~yruong mUll'" Iil' 416 xac dinh h~ sOlin c*y: " 1:!6 7.4 cAc PHUONG PHAp CHON MAU TIll1<'1NGmlNG: 128 7.1 Chon mau ng~u nhic:n don gidn 128 7.2 Chnn Innu pban t6 (chon m~u ph5n l6ng) 129 7.1 VCe hrqng trung bsnh t6ng IhtS 129 7.2 Udc ht<)ng lY I¢ 150g lhe , 131 7.5 Chon mnu enkh6i (mau cum) : 133 CHl!<1NG 8: KItM DINH GlA THUY~:l' 8.2 cAc LOAI GlA 11iUYi~T TRONe; nl()N(j Kf~ .lo~i 1 va sai l:1m loai 2 , D9 i'.(3 KlJ!M DlNH GlA THUYET VI.: TY LI,~TONe.'THUYET VE ~ TRUNG n1" NH TON(1l'HI!~CtfU!'l'I(i ,. 1-44 85 KIflM DINH G1ATHUYl~T V"~PHUONG SAl mNO·TtitL : _ 14<) 1!.6 KIEM DtNH mA THUYET vi~su KHAc NHAU GlaA 2 s6 TRUN<i UlNH CVA HAI roNG THE , :.1 Trtlaog h(lp mltu ph6i hQp Iflng cOp :;;.7 KIEM DlNH G1A THUYET vi!.
su BANO NHAu.mUAHAIl PHlfONG SAl eVA roNG THiL : ;. 156 ItS KIEM DJNH GIA THIET vf~SI) HANG NHAUGlaAHAITY l_(i roNOTHE 15S CHVdNG 9: PHANTicH PHVON(;SAl .1 PHAN TtCH PHl10NG SAl MOT YEU T6 :.1TIlWng h(1pk lOng lhe co phan ph6i chu4n va phl/dRg sai h~ng nhau .2 Philo tlch sllu ANOVA : : 168 gia 41jnh rl) philn phfii h61 ky .l('l de li~ng th~ 41l1{,l1: rphixrng phdp phi tham sill : : ,.