THAI NGUYEN UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURAL AND FORESTRY VU THU TRA IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MEDICINAL PLANTS IN VIETNAM: AN ASSESSMENT RESEARCH REPORT Study Mode: Full-time Major: Environmental Science and Management Faculty: Advanced Education Program Office Batch: K50 Thai Nguyen, 2023 1 DOCUMENTATION PAGE WITH ABSTRACT Thai Nguyen University of Agriculture and Forestry Degree Program Bachelor of Environmental Science and Management Student name Vu Thu Tra Student ID DTN1854290003 Report Title Impacts of Climate Change on Medicinal Plants in Vietnam: An Assessment Supervisor Truong Thi Anh Tuyet Ph. Abstract: This thesis aims to assess the effects of climate change on several medicinal plants in Vietnam using MaxEnt software. Medicinal plants are an essential component of traditional medicine in Vietnam, but the impact of climate change on these plants remains poorly understood. The study uses Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to predict medicinal plants' potential distribution and abundance in different climate scenarios.
Environmental variables, including temperature and precipitation, are the main factors needed to model the distribution of these medicinal plants under current and future climate scenarios. The study results show that climate change will likely significantly influence the distribution and abundance of medicinal plants in Vietnam. The models predict that many species are likely to experience range shifts and reductions in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. The study also highlights the potential for certain species to benefit from climate change, particularly those with ranges that expand into newly suitable habitats.
Overall, the research offers valuable insights into the potential effects of climate change on medicinal plants in Vietnam and identifies the species most at risk. The results can inform the development of conservation strategies to protect these important medicinal plant species in the face of climate change. Keywords: Climate change, Maxent, Occurrence, Prediction, Coscinium fenestratum, Morinda officinalis, Anoectochilus setaceus, Stephania japonica, Panax bipinnatifidus, Panax vietnamensis, Cupressus torulosa, Taxus wallichiana, Berberis julianae. Number of pages: Date of Submission: ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I wish to start by expressing my sincere appreciation to everyone who helped this research endeavor come to fruition., Impacts of Climate Change on Medicinal Plants in Vietnam: An Assessment.
This work would not have been possible without the generous support, guidance, and encouragement from various individuals and organizations. I acknowledge and appreciate the collective effort that has gone into making this study a reality, and I would like to thank you in the most sincere way possible every individual who has played a role in shaping this thesis. Firstly, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Thai Nguyen University of Agriculture and Forestry for their support and resources throughout the course of this research. This study was completed successfully thanks in large part to the university's devotion to providing a supportive research environment and its commitment to academic achievement.
I am thankful for the opportunities provided by the university to engage in meaningful scientific inquiry and for the valuable guidance received from the faculty members and research advisors. I also want to convey my admiration and sincere thanks to my instructor, Truong Thi Anh Tuyet Ph., for her invaluable guidance and support throughout this research journey. Her expertise, knowledge, and dedication have been instrumental in shaping my understanding of the subject matter and refining my research skills. I am genuinely grateful for her unwavering commitment to my academic and personal growth and for the opportunities provided to me under her mentorship.
Her insightful feedback, encouragement, and willingness to share her expertise have been invaluable assets in the successful completion of the study. I want to sincerely thank the Advanced Education Program for all of their help and assistance with this thesis, especially their crucial advice. From the initial stages of providing instructions and guidelines to the final stages of assisting with corrections and ensuring academic integrity, they have played a crucial role in shaping this research project. The program's commitment to excellence, prompt feedback, and encouragement have been instrumental in keeping me on track and motivated to complete this thesis within the designated timeframe.
I am very appreciative of the possibilities and materials the Advanced Education Program has made available to me, which have contributed immensely to my academic and personal growth. Last but not least, I want to express my sincere appreciation to my caring family and understanding friends for their unfailing support and understanding during this study project. Their unwavering encouragement, confidence in my skills, and tolerance of the ups and downs of this journey have been a source of strength and inspiration for me. Their unwavering presence, words of encouragement, and willingness to lend an ear or offer a helping hand have made this experience all the more meaningful and rewarding.
I am extremely fortunate to have such an amazing support system, and I will always be appreciative of their love, compassion, and unshakable faith in my abilities. Sincerely, Thai Nguyen, July 2023 Vu Thu Tra TABLE OF CONTENT List of Figures. 8 List of Tables. 11 List of Abbreviations.
Research questions and hypotheses. Research regarding Climate change impacts on species Occurrences. Future climate Scenarios .5 Species Distribution Modelling. Importance of environment variables.
Current habitat suitability. Future potential distribution. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION. 77 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 4.
Area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 9 species. Jackknife of regularized training gain of 9 species .3 Marginal response curves of Coscinium fenestratum under current climate conditions. Marginal response curve of Morinda officinalis under current climate conditions. Marginal response curves of Anoectochilus setaceus under current climate conditions.
Marginal response curves of Stephania japonica under current climate conditions. Marginal response curves of Berberis julianae under current climate conditions. Marginal response curves of Panax vietnamensis under current climate conditions. Marginal response curves of Cupressus torulosa at present climatic conditions.
Marginal response curves of Taxus wallichiana at present climate conditions. Marginal response curves of Panax bipinnatifidus under current climate conditions. The forecasted suitable area for Coscinium fenestratum in Vietnam under different climate scenarios.b Habitat map with appropriate levels - Coscinium fenestratum in Vietnam under current and future climate conditions. The forecasted suitable area for Morinda officinalis in Vietnam under different climate scenarios.
Habitat map with appropriate levels - Morinda officinalis in Vietnam under current and future climate conditions. The forecasted suitable area for Anoectochilus setaceus in Vietnam under different climate scenarios.b Habitat map with appropriate levels - Anoectochilus setaceus in Vietnam under current and future climate conditions. The forecasted suitable area for Stephania japonica in Vietnam under different climate scenarios. Habitat map with appropriate levels - Stephania japonica in Vietnam under current and future climate conditions.
The forecasted suitable area for Berberis julianae in Vietnam under different climate scenarios. Habitat map with appropriate levels - Berberis julianae in Vietnam under current and future climate conditions. The forecasted suitable area for Panax vietnamensis in Vietnam under different climate scenarios. Habitat map with appropriate levels - Panax vietnamensis in Vietnam under current and future climate conditions.
The forecasted suitable area for Cupressus torulosa in Vietnam under different climate scenarios. Habitat map with appropriate levels - Cupressus torulosa in Vietnam under current and future climate conditions. The forecasted suitable area for Taxus wallichiana in Vietnam under different climate scenarios. Habitat map with appropriate levels - Taxus wallichiana in Vietnam under current and future climate conditions.
The forecasted suitable area for Panax bipinnatifidus in Vietnam under different climate scenarios. Habitat map with appropriate levels - Panax bipinnatifidus in Vietnam under current and future climate conditions. 65 LIST OF TABLES Table 3. List of medicinal plant species used in the model.
The list of climatic environmental variables used in the model. Contribution rates of environmental variables in current climate condition. Contribution rates of environmental variables - Coscinium fenestratum. Contribution rate of environmental variables - Morinda officinalis.
Contribution rate of environmental variables - Anoectochilus setaceus. Contribution rates of environmental variables - Stephania japonica. Contribution rates of environmental variables - Berberis julianae. Contribution rates of environmental variables - Panax vietnamensis.
Contribution rates of environmental variables - Cupressus torulosa. Contribution rates of environmental variables - Taxus wallichiana. Contribution rates of environmental variables - Panax bipinnatifidus. 65 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS SDM …………………….
Species Distribution Model ENM ……………………. Ecological Niche Model AUC ……………………. Area Under the Curve RCP ……………………. Representative Concentration Pathway ROC …………………….
Receiver Operating Characteristic PART I. Research rationale The variety and distribution of therapeutic plants in Vietnam are significantly impacted by climate change (Applequist et al. Many plants species' habitat appropriateness is changing due to changes in patterns of rainfall and temperature, which is changing their range and distribution. As a result, many medicinal plants are becoming increasingly rare, threatened, or endangered.
Additionally, changes in the timing and duration of seasons can affect the flowering, fruiting, and other phenological events, leading to a mismatch between pollinators and plants, and reducing the reproductive success of plant populations. Climate change can also exacerbate the stress of medicinal plants, making them more susceptible to pests, diseases, and other biotic and abiotic factors. These impacts can have serious consequences on the availability and quality of medicinal plant resources, as well as the traditional knowledge and practices associated with their use. Hence, it is critical to determine how vulnerable medicinal plants are to climate change, come up with practical conservation plans, and encourage sustainable usage and management techniques.
In this study, a total of 9 species of precious medicinal plants with many therapeutic effects were mentioned, including: (1) Coscinium fenestratum (Gaertn., (2) Morinda officinalis FC How, (3) Anoectochilus setaceus Blume, (4) Stephania japonica (Thunb.) Miers, (5) Berberis julianae CKSchneid, (6) Panax vietnamensis Ha & Grushv, (7) Cupressus torulosa D. Don, (8) Taxus wallichiana Zucc. and (9) Panax bipinnatifidus Seem. The selection of these 9 medicinal plants for the research was based on several important factors.
They are known to have significant medicinal value and are commonly used in traditional medicine practices in Vietnam. They represent a diverse range of plant families and exhibit a variety of medicinal properties, making them of great interest for further study. On the other hand, the plants selection criteria are based on their ecological and conservation significance. Since many of them are unique to Vietnam or have small geographic ranges, they are especially sensitive to the effects of climate change.
We can learn more about the possible impacts of climate change on botanical medicines at the species and ecosystem levels by researching these species. Furthermore, the selected plants also have relevance in terms of cultural importance and economic value. They are widely used in traditional medicine practices and play a vital role in local communities. For the purpose of maintaining traditional knowledge and guaranteeing the ongoing availability of medicinal resources for future generations, it is crucial to comprehend the possible effects of climate change on these plants.
Lastly, the selected plants may have limited existing research on their response to climate change. By concentrating on particular species, the study seeks to close information gaps and explain how climate change may affect their distribution. Because of such great medicinal uses, the above medicinal plants are always actively hunted, leading to a situation where demand exceeds supply, thereby pushing up their prices, and at the same time pushing them into the endangered group. threatened in the IUCN Red List.
Besides, they also face the risk of changing land use area. Land is exploited and used by people for many purposes such as: land for agricultural, forestry and fishery production, residential land, land for construction of infrastructure, land for production, business and services (Nguyen Van Hieu, 2018). Climate change has also greatly affected tree species (Applequist et al.