FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS A TOOLBOX JEAN-FRÉDÉRIC MORIN & JONATHAN PAQUIN Tai Lieu Chat Luong Foreign Policy Analysis Jean-Frédéric Morin • Jonathan Paquin Foreign Policy Analysis A Toolbox Jean-Frédéric Morin Jonathan Paquin Department of Political Science Department of Political Science Université Laval Université Laval QC, Canada QC, Canada ISBN 978-3-319-61002-3 ISBN 978-3-319-61003-0 (eBook) https://doi.1007/978-3-319-61003-0 Library of Congress Control Number: 2017962099 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2018 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
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Thanks also to Isis Olivier and Élianne Gendron for their assistance, as well as the Department of Political Science and the Faculty of Social Sciences at Laval University for their financial support. v Contents 1 What Is Foreign Policy Analysis? 1 What Is a Policy? 2 When a Policy Becomes Foreign 4 An Array of Explanations 7 Levels of Analysis and the Evolution in FPA 8 A Toolbox for Studying FPA 11 References 12 2 How to Identify and Assess a Foreign Policy? 17 The Goals of Foreign Policy 19 The Goals Communicated 19 Doctrine 21 National Interest 23 Deducing the Goals Pursued 24 Mobilized Resources 27 Resources 27 The Power Paradox 29 Mobilization and Exploitation 30 Instruments of Foreign Policy 32 Socialization 32 Coercion 35 Interventions 37 Event-Based Databases 39 vii viii Contents The Process of Foreign Policy 41 Segmentation in Six Phases 41 A Linear, Cyclical or Chaotic Process 44 The Outcome of Foreign Policy 46 Measuring Effectiveness 46 Feedback Effects 48 Historical Institutionalism 49 Explaining Effectiveness 50 From the Puzzle to the Theoretical Explanations 52 Theoretical Models 53 References 53 3 Do Decision-Makers Matter? 69 Emotions 71 From Psychobiography to Statistics 72 Middle Way: Affective Dimensions 74 Typologies Combining the Affective Dimensions 75 Cognition 77 Cognitive Consistency 77 Operational Codes 78 Heuristic Shortcuts 80 Cognitive Mapping 81 Cognitive Complexity 82 Schema Theory 84 Perceptions 86 Misperception 87 Attribution Bias 88 Probabilities 90 References 91 4 What Is the Influence of the Bureaucracy? 101 Management Styles 102 Defining Management Styles 103 The Most Appropriate Management Style 104 Group Dynamics 106 Groupthink 107 Defining the Phenomenon 109 Contents ix Organizational Model 110 Organizational Strategies 110 Effects of SOPs 112 Bureaucratic Model 114 One Game, Several Players 114 Interactions Between the Players 116 Position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs 117 Bureaucratic Model and Its Critics 118 References 120 5 To What Extent Is Foreign Policy Shaped by Institutions? 127 Parliamentary and Electoral System 128 Presidential and Parliamentary Regimes 128 Parliamentarians and Their Preferences 131 Political Cohabitation and Coalitions 133 Strong State and Weak State 134 Determining the Relative Power of the State 134 Power of the State and Its Foreign Policy 137 Democratic Peace Proposition 139 Observing the Democratic Peace 139 Defining the Variables of the Democratic Peace 141 Peaceful Nature of Democracies 142 Explaining the Democratic Peace Through Norms 144 Exchange of Information and Credibility 145 Economic Liberalism 146 From Democracy to Free Trade 147 From Free Trade to Peace and Vice Versa 149 Critics of the Liberal Peace 150 References 151 6 How Influential Are the Social Actors? 167 Public Opinion 167 The Almond–Lippmann Consensus and Its Critics 168 Structure of Public Opinion 171 Influence of Public Opinion 173 Audience Costs 175 Influence of Leaders on Public Opinion 176 Rally Around the Flag 177 Temptation of War as a Rallying Lever 179 x Contents The Media 182 The Media’s Influence 182 How Leaders Influence the Media? 184 CNN Effect 187 Interest Groups 188 How Interest Groups Influence Foreign Policy? 189 Methodological Pitfalls 190 Case Studies and Generalizations 192 The Experts 195 Think Tanks 196 Epistemic Communities 197 Experts’ Predictions 198 References 200 7 How Does Rationality Apply to FPA and What Are Its Limitations? 217 Rational Choice 217 From Micro-Economics to Foreign Policy 218 Substitutability of Foreign Policies 220 Rational Deterrence 222 Modeling Rationality 226 Game Theory 226 Cybernetic Theory 232 Two-Level Game 234 Rationality and Cognition 237 Prospect Theories 237 Poliheuristic Theory 242 References 245 8 What Part Does Culture Play in FPA? 255 Norms 256 Norm Compliance 256 Norm Diffusion 260 National Identities 261 Self and the Other 262 Evolving Identities 265 Foreign Policy as Identity Affirmation 267 Social Identity Theory 269 Contents xi National Roles 271 Role Conception 271 Roles as Foreign Policy Guides 274 Gender 275 Women, Femininity and Feminism 275 Nation and State in the Feminist Grammar 277 Foreign States and Nations 278 Organizational and Strategic Cultures 281 Stability of Organizational Cultures 281 Interactions between Organizational Cultures 284 Strategic Culture 286 Strategic Cultures and Practices 287 Discourse 289 Discourse as a Field of Interaction 289 Methods of Discourse Analysis 292 References 295 9 Does the International Structure Explain Foreign Policy? 315 Structural Theories 317 Structural Shift in International Relations 317 Limits and Criticism 321 Can Structural Theories Inform Foreign Policy? 323 Structural Assumptions and State Units 324 Reconciling Agent and Structure 327 From Structure to Agent 328 From Agent to Structure 330 References 333 10 What Are the Current Challenges to FPA? 341 Challenge 1: Beyond Eclecticism 342 Challenge 2: Beyond the American Framework 344 Challenge 3: Beyond the State-Centric Prism 345 Challenge 4: Beyond the Ivory Tower 347 References 348 Bibliography 351 Index 353 List of Figures Fig.1 Foreign policy instruments 32 Fig.2 The cycle of formulating foreign policies 42 Fig.1 Risks associated with management styles 105 Fig.2 The Battle of the Sexes 228 Fig.3 The Prisoner’s Dilemma 229 Fig.4 The Stag Hunt 230 Fig.5 The Game of Chicken 231 Fig.6 Schematic comparison of decision-making according to rational choice theory, bounded rationality and poliheuristic theory 244 xiii CHAPTER 1 What Is Foreign Policy Analysis? Foreign policy analysis (FPA) is very appealing to students, irrespective of age or caliber. Some people expect to find a field of study that is more concrete and practical than international relations theories. Others are fascinated by great historical figures, from Otto von Bismarck to Winston Churchill, or are drawn, without always wanting to admit it, by the appar- ent romanticism of diplomacy.
These are, of course, only lures. The novice soon realizes that the theoretical models in FPA are just as complex as those in other fields of international relations. They also realize that most foreign policy deci- sions, far from being clinched in padded embassy drawing rooms, between a cigar and a martini, are the result of bureaucratic processes similar to those in other areas of public policy. As the complexity unfolds and diplomacy loses its aura, other attractions come into play.
First and foremost, FPA provides a unique opportunity to integrate analysis at different levels. At the crossroads between the theories of international relations and public policy analysis, FPA is not limited to the study of the international system that fails to take account of its com- ponent parts, or to the study of one-off decision-making processes in the international context. Instead, FPA focuses on the continuous interaction between actors and their environment. To understand and explain foreign policy, the interna- tional context must be taken into account.
The distribution of power © The Author(s) 2018 1 J. Paquin, Foreign Policy Analysis, https://doi. PAQUIN between countries and the influence of transnational stakeholders and intergovernmental organizations partially determine foreign policy. Governments that adopt foreign policies perceive the international system through their own filters, which may be cultural, organizational or cogni- tive.
Therefore, to understand and explain a foreign policy, it is also essen- tial to study the state’s domestic dynamics and decision-making processes (Sprout and Sprout 1965). Although FPA does not have its own specific level of analysis, it can be defined by its dependent variable, namely, foreign policy itself. Most research in FPA seeks to explain how one or more public authorities adopt a given policy in certain conditions. Why do great powers actively try to forge alliances with small countries despite their limited military resources (Fordham 2011)? Why did Jordan drop its territorial claims on Palestine (Legrand 2009)? Why did members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sign the Kyoto agreement, even though it aims to reduce the consumption of their main export (Depledge 2008)? Why does France concentrate more of its official development assistance in its former colonies than does the United Kingdom (Alesina and Dollar 2000)? Why did Norway join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) but refuse to join the European Union (EU), whereas Sweden chose to do the opposite (Reiter 1996)? The questions are endless, but the starting point is always the same: iden- tify a foreign policy, which is often puzzling or counter-intuitive, and then try to explain it.
What Is a Policy? Despite the fact that foreign policy is the focal point of FPA, or perhaps for that very reason, there is no consensual definition of what a foreign policy actually is. The truth is that the question is hardly ever discussed in the literature. Most analysts quite simply avoid tackling the concept directly, even though it is central to their work. Other fields of international rela- tions are organized around definitions, which act as reference points for theoretical debates, as well as for operationalizing variables.
But FPA has no equivalent. After all, the concept of foreign policy adopted by analysts is in constant mutation, as a function of the changes in practices and theories. It would be illusory to freeze foreign policy within a specific empirical reality that is timeless and universal. Indeed, what is considered to be a foreign policy WHAT IS FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS? 3 today may not have been so yesterday and may not be tomorrow.
As a result, every definition remains more or less dependent on its context. This book, which seeks to reflect the field of study overall and its evolu- tion over the past few decades, adopts a broad definition of foreign policy: a set of actions or rules governing the actions of an independent political authority deployed in the international environment. Our definition emphasizes that foreign policy is the “actions of an independent political authority” because it is reserved to sovereign states. The Canadian, the German or the Spanish governments, for example, are the legal custodian of their states’ sovereignty and the representatives of the international personality of their respective states.
Hence, sub- national states such as Quebec, Bavaria or Catalonia are not conducting foreign policy. They can conduct international relations according to their constitutional jurisdictions, but they cannot deploy a foreign policy on the international scene because they are not sovereign and independent enti- ties (Vengroff and Jason Rich 2006). Of course, there are exceptions—in Belgium, for instance, federalism is quite decentralized and gives several exclusive constitutional jurisdictions to Wallonia and Flanders as well as the right to sign international legal agreements (treaties) in their jurisdic- tions (Criekemans 2010). Our definition of foreign policy also refers to “actions or rules govern- ing the actions” because the notion of policy is polysemic.
Some scholars consider that a foreign policy comprises actions, reactions or inaction, which may be ad hoc or repeated (Frankel 1963). From this perspective, France’s decision to withdraw from the negotiations for the Multilateral Agreement on Investment in 1998, or the repeated practice of providing emergency assistance to a neighboring country in the event of a major natural disaster, would be considered examples of foreign policy. Other scholars view foreign policy not as the action itself but as the underlying vision—in other words, the specific conception that a state has regarding its place in the world, its national interests and the key principles that allow it to defend them.