VNU UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS FACULTY OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS SUPERVISOR Assoc. Le Dinh Hai STUDENT: Vu Minh Hoang CLASS: QH-2018-E KTPT 2 Standard program Hanoi — November 2021 VNU UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS FACULTY OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS SUPERVISOR Assoc. Le Dinh Hai THESIS COMMITTEE STUDENT: Vu Minh Hoang CLASS: QH-2018-E KTPT 2 Standard program Hanoi — November 2021 Acknowledgements I am pleased to have an opportunity to write my acknowledgements to many people involved in the research, without whom this study would have never happened. First and foremost, I would like to express my deep sense of gratitude to supervisor Dr.
Le Dinh Hai from the Faculty of Development Economics, VNU University of Economics and Business, for his continuous support, patient guidance and enthusiastic encouragement throughout my research project. His ideas, knowledge and efforts are heavily embedded into this study. I wish to extend my thanks to express my heartfelt gratitude to my research team group, Dao Duy Tan and Luong Thi Khanh Ly, for the commendable efforts and for always staying by my side on every field trip and helping me construct this research. Similarly, I would love to thank various people for their contribution to this project; Mr.
Nguyen Duc Anh, Da Bac District Department of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs; the staffs of Committee of Toan Son, Cao Son and Hien Luong Communes; and the village chiefs who devote their time to help me during the field survey. Special thanks to local people in Da Bac district for providing me with helpful information in this study. Finally, I owe my gratefully thank to my grandmother, my parents, my sisters, my uncles, and aunts for their endless love, support, and encouragement to me throughout all my life. Without their wonderful care, it would have been impossible for me to chase my dream.
Hanoi, November 10" 2021 Table of Contents List of tables. iv List of figtires 158. 1 Chapter 2: Study Goals and Objectives. Study goal and obj€CfÏY€S.
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Characteristics of houseloÏ(. G1100 HH HH ni, 10 Chapter 4: Study Area and Research Methodology. Study area nh. Hoa Binh PTOVITC€.
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Occupation of household head. Participation in agricultural extension DfOBTAINS. The main source of water of the household. Household dependency TafO.
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Distance to district Center .-- 2G 1101199011901 vn ng ky 30 5. Key drivers affecting multidimensional poVery. HH HH HH re 33 5. The resulting Bayesian NeGfWOFK.
Model validation and sensitivity añaÏyS1S. Factors influencing multidimensional poverty. How do the drivers influence the probability of households’ multidimensional 09. Interaction aïnaÌÏS1S.
ees - - + xxx HH TK ng 41 Chapter 6: Discussion and policy implicafion. SH HH HH HH 47 Reference. 56 iv List of tables Table Page Table 4.1: Sampling design in Da Bac District, Hoa Binh Province 15 Table 4.2: Description of variables and discretization methods 21 Table 5.1: Descriptive statistics on surveyed households for qualitative aA parameters Table 5.2: Descriptive statistics on surveyed households for quantitative 2% parameters Table 5.3: Brief model summary for key drivers affecting multidimensional T poverty of surveyed households Table 5.4: The relative order of influence of drivers on multidimensional ` poverty obtained from the BN model Table 5.5: The optimal scenario for Kinh ethnic group and minority ethnic 38 groups (Muong, Dzao, Thai) escaping from poverty in the study area. List of figures Figure Page Figure 3.1: The indicators of the Global MPI 7 Figure 3.2: Conceptual model of potential factors influencing T multidimensional poverty of households Figure 4.1: Study location — Da Bac District, Hoa Binh Province, Vietnam 12 Figure 4.2: Poverty rate in Da Bac District, Hoa Binh Province l3 (Period 2016 -2020) Figure 4.3: Graphical representation of different types of interactions 19 Figure 5.1: The resulting Bayesian Networks 33 Figure 5.2: ROC curve for the BN model using the test set 35 Figure 5.3: Diagnostic analysis for the target variable “multidimensional 37 poverty” is set to 100% for the state “No” Figure 5.4: The optimal scenario for Kinh ethnic group 39 Figure 5.5: The optimal scenario for minority ethnic groups (Muong, Dzao, " Thai) Figure 5.6: Synergistic interactions among drivers of multidimensional i poverty Figure 5.7: Antagonistic interactions among drivers of multidimensional 4 poverty Chapter 1: Introduction According to “The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015” of the United Nations (UN), in 2015, 800 million people (approximately 12% of the world’s population) were still extremely poor.
That is the reason why the United Nations set “No poverty” as the first goal of the 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs), with the aim to eradicate extreme poverty for all people everywhere by the end of 2030. In order to achieve this goal, preparing a long- term plan targeting poverty alleviation remains an important issue in many countries [11]. Poverty is a dynamic relative concept that is generally not obvious to measure or easy to collect data [65]. For many years, income or consumption expenditure levels have been used to define poverty [48].
However, the major limitation of this unidimensional approach was its inability to capture the deprivations of human life [21]. The poor people might not be short on income, but they have to be deprived of basic needs such as housing, sanitation, water, education, etc [9]. Another evidence showed that the monetary variables could not alone depict poverty, which is a manifestation of insufficient well-being [11]. Measuring poverty based solely on income criteria could illustrate the capacity of people on product consumption through the market, but fail to capture their access to public goods and services.
Hence, other variables should be supplemented along with income in order to visualize the full picture of poverty. Poverty analysis is currently undergoing a multidimensional turn [36], emphasizing the dimensions reflecting many different ways leading to human impoverishment, rather than material poverty only. Since the pioneering work of Sen [71] and Bourguignon and Chakravarty [11], the number of academic research on multidimensional poverty has blossomed quickly, namely empirical studies of Kolm [44]; Duclos et al [27]; Maasoumi and Lugo [51]; Alkire and Foster [5]; Ravallion [67]; Coromaldi and Zoli [16]; Vijaya et al [80]. These studies mostly focused on defining poverty by accessing the education, health, living standards of the households.
However, there is no unanimity on the identification and aggregation of indices estimating the multidimensionality of poverty [68]. Although various indices and poverty measurements have been implied by an abundance of scholars, researchers, each research differed in how they measured multidimensional poverty, as well as there are remaining shortcomings in classification and selections of indicators. How we measure poverty could influential determine the way we understand, analyze and enact policies on reducing poverty [5]. As such, it is urgent to classify and construct an integrated multidimensional poverty index, identify, and assess the effect of each poverty unit and pattern, and advocate the poverty alleviation implements.
Sustainable poverty reduction is also one of the national target programs in Vietnam. Vietnam has made remarkable achievements in poverty reduction and is one of the first countries in the Asia and Pacific region to adopt multidimensional poverty measurement [77]. Vietnam set the national average multidimensional poverty reduction target of 1.5% per annum and 2- 4% in mountainous ethnic minority areas in the country’s five-year Socio- Economic Development Plan (2016-2020) [77]. The rate of multidimensionally poor households in Vietnam in 2020 will decrease by more than half compared to 2016, from 9.
However, according to a survey on living standards conducted by the General Statistics Office in 2020, the Northern Midlands and Mountains region of Vietnam, including Hoa Binh province is still one of the regions with the highest multidimensional poverty rate in the country (2.7%), second only to the Central Highlands (3. Transitions out of poverty are still not really sustainable; the risk of re-entry is still very high. Da Bac district is located in the northeast of Hoa Binh Province, a mountainous area in Vietnam. The population of the province by 2019 is 60,970 people, including five main ethnic groups (Muong, Kinh, Thai, Dzao, Tay) and a few other ethnic groups.
Over the past years, the implementation of poverty reduction programs in the district has achieved significant results. The rate of poor households according to multidimensional poverty measurement dropped from 46.64% on average each year. However, the number of households escaping poverty is not sustainable; the risk of falling back into poverty is still relatively high, and poverty reduction policies are facing multiple new problems. Poverty reduction speed is constantly decelerating; meanwhile, the unemployment rate is accelerating.
The application of technology, the progress of investment, and the construction of infrastructure in difficult communes are still inadequate and limited. The campaign on poverty alleviation still lacks long-term strategies. So far, there have been several studies on the factors affecting multidimensional poverty. But unfortunately, little has been published on how to interpret the patterns of the poor areas, identify the culprits causing multidimensional poverty and suggest the measurements on tackling with these factors in order to lift the local out of the multidimensional poverty in Da Bac district, the poorest area in Hoa Binh province.
Against this backdrop, this research would identify and analyze the indicators as well as the effect of these factors on multidimensional poverty in the locality. Enhanced by utilizing Binary Logistic Model and Bayesian Network, the study would describe thoroughly the role and importance of each factor and promote the implements on reducing poverty in Da Bac district, Hoa Binh province. Chapter 2: Study Goals and Objectives 2. Study goal and objectives e Goal: The goal of this study is to analyze the factors influencing multidimensional poverty of households in Da Bac district, Hoa Binh province, and propose solutions for multidimensional poverty alleviation in the study area.
e The main objectives of this study are: (1) To review potential factors that affect multidimensional poverty of households. (2) To identify and analyze the drivers that significantly influence multidimensional poverty of households in the study area. (3) To suggest solutions to reduce multidimensional poverty in the locality. Research questions e What are factors influencing the multidimensional poverty status of households in Da Bac District, Hoa Binh Province? e What are the impacts of these factors on the multidimensional poverty status of households in the locality? e What are the solutions to help households escape from multidimensional poverty? Chapter 3: Conceptual Framework 3.
Poverty concept There is no single concept of poverty and no perfect way to measure it. It is possible, however, to define poverty as a condition in which a part of the population does not enjoy and satisfy basic needs. “Poverty is a lack of opportunity to participate in community development processes”, said Abapia Sen, the winner of the Nobel economics prize in 1998.