HANOI NATIONAL UNIVERSIT UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS FACULTY OF FINANCE AND BANKING GRADUATION THESIS TOPIC THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL INCLUSION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE Hanoi - 2023 HANOI NATIONAL UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS FACULTY OF FINANCE AND BANKING GRADUATION THESIS TOPIC THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL INCLUSION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE Teacher Instructor Ph.D Luu Ngoc Hiep Student name Pham Thanh Binh - 19050621 Class QH 2019-E TCNH CLC 4 Program High-quality Hanoi - 2023 DECLARATION I hereby declare that my graduation thesis “The impact offinancial inclusion on economic growth: International experience’ is the product of my own research. In the references section of the thesis, the use of references are clearly mentioned. The information and finding results provided in the graduation thesis are accurate. If| am wrong, I will take full responsibility and abide by all the rules of the subject and the university.
Signature of teacher instructor Signature of student ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First of all, I would like to express my deep gratitude to the teachers and instructors at the University of Economics and Business - VNU, especially the instructor Ph. Luu Ngoc Hiep has wholeheartedly helped me to complete the graduation thesis. I would also want to express my deep gratitude to the professors at the Faculty of Finance and Banking - UEB for providing me with valuable information so that I can complete the thesis. My graduation thesis still has some errors and weaknesses due to limited knowledge and reasoning ability; however, I hope that the feedback and contributions of teachers will help my thesis be more completed.
Best regards, TABLE OF CONTENTS IIk⁄ð09)33(00/. 1 LIST OF TABLES 1177. Hàn Hà Hà Hà HH TH HH TH HA TH1110110 101111. HH HH HH HH1 11T EETEREEEEEkrretrkee 4 2.
Comprehensive financial meaSur€rmeTn(. The relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth. Other factors affecting ECONOMIC ØTOWÌh. ResearCh BaD vssssessssessseesssteesstensssecsueessueasssesssseesssessaseessseesasensuessueessneessueessuessasensaneesaneesaessanensunassesenaes 12 3.
The theoretical framework. The concept of financial incÏUSiOI. The role of financial incÏuSÏOT. Current status and experience of financial inclusion development in some COUNTIES.
Current status of financial incÌÏUSÏOI. Some countries’ experience of financial inclusion development. Data and research vwariabÌ@S.--------«-+-+++xx++kkt+ketrrrttrkttkrtkrtrrtirririrririirrrrrrirrrei 20 4. Research model and sample Selection.
Results and GisCussion. «HH HH HH HH HH HH1 HH g1 trệt 26 5.-- -- 5< S+stéct+ HH HH1. Variance Inflation Factor (VIF). 37 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.
The analytical framework between financial inclusion and economic growth. Number of access points per 100,000 adults. The increase in digital financial services compared to pre-pandemic levels. The use of traditional financial services in 2021.---«-cccseersrerrrerrree 18 LIST OF TABLES Table 4.
Variables description in the research model. Variance Inflation FCẨOF. Total variance explained uu. Suitability's examination of principal component analÌySis.
Model selection test F@SuÌÏfS. Estimated result with robust stamdard ©rTOF.Introduction With the global banking and financial system's development, people's access to financial products and services has increased significantly. Financial inclusion or the use of formal financial services can be seen as the Key to the sustainable development and growth of a country in which all sectors of society have the opportunity to access financial services at an affordable cost (Dahiya et al., 2020) With the access and use of financial services such as deposits or insurance, a large amount of capital will be mobilized in the financial market, thereby increasing production output and the numberof jobs, contributing to the improvement of life quality and income distribution (Claessens et al., 2007; Demirguc-Kunt et al. In addition, many documents also show a close relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth when it is also considered one of the main pillars in the goal of poverty reduction and income inequality alleviation, financial stability and sustainable development (Kim, 2015; Neaime et al., 2018; Erlando et al., 2020; Sharma et al.
As one of the national policy goals and the broader topic discussed in most international agendas, financial inclusion has been attracting much attention from policymakers, financial institutions and governments (Sharma et al. Expressly, in the 2010 global development agenda with a vision for 2025, G20 leaders agreed on financial inclusion as one of the nine main pillars (GPFI, 2011; Le et al., 2019; Erlando et al. In addition, in the 2020 Global Financial Access initiative, the World Bank Group and the International Finance Corporation (IFC), with targeted interventions, confirmed their commitment to providing financial access for up to 1 billion adults. Besides, a separate forum geared towards developing countries, especially the ASEAN region, was discussed in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum to provide financial access opportunities for small businesses and low-income households (Van et al.
According to a report from the Global Findex Database 2021, nearly 76% of the world's adults have accounts with banks or any other credit, microfinance and mobile money service providers, of which this figure for developing economies is 71%. On the other hand, despite the specific effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, especially restrictions on social distancing, access to financial services in the market is still quite efficient with a strong boom of digital payments. Specifically, before the epidemic, 18% ofadults paid bills directly from their accounts, and during the outbreak period, 80 million people in India participated in online payments; China is 100 million people or 11% and 20% for developing economies (FAS, 2021). Also, according to survey data from the IMF, for low- middle-income economies, two indicators of financial inclusion are the number of commercial banks and the number of ATMs per 100,000 adults in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are relatively stable along with an increase in the number of deposit accounts, loans or outstanding loans in the period from 2019 to the first half of 2021.
These figures show the strong participation of national governments in vigorously implementing policies to support individuals and businesses for the goal of economic development in general. Many countries have adopted various income measures to provide a financial safety net for vulnerable households and businesses, such as loan assistance or cash subsidies via bank accounts. Although the overall financial inclusion situation in countries has improved significantly, according to the latest World Bank estimates, half of the world's adult population is still unbanked at a formal financial institution (Sharma et al. Most unbanked people belong to the poor, marginalized and vulnerable groups, including women (Cabeza-Garcia et al., 2019; Espinosa-Vega et al.
Some common barriers include distance, affordability, lack of required documentation and lack of trust in the formal financial system (Camara et al., 2014; Park et al., 2015; Pomeroy et al., 2020; Demirguc-Kunt et al. Therefore, within the new context, especially under the influence of the Covid-19 epidemic, it is worthwhile to continue studying financial inclusion in an integrated manner while considering its impact on the economy (Emara et al., 2021; Chen et al. Financial inclusion is a top concern in many countries. Equally improving access to finance for all individuals has always been a driving force to enhance stability and sustainable economic development.
Therefore, the purpose of this research is to examine the impact of financial inclusion on economic growth at the international level from 2015 to 2021. Besides, the article also examines the impact of economic and institutional factors on economic growth. At the same time, a composite indicator of financial inclusion will be constructed to assess the aggregate impact of financial inclusion on economic growth. To achieve the research objective, the study will answer two main research questions: (i) What is the impact of financial inclusion and other factors on economic growth? (ii) What should countries do to maintain and realize their growth goals better by improving the above-influencing factors? To measure the effects of financial inclusion and other factors on economic growth, the study collects data on financial inclusion indicators from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s Financial Access Survey Report (FAS) and other economic and institutional factors from the World Development Indicators and the Worldwide Governance Indicators database from 2015 to 2021 for 176 countries.
Overall, the study found that greater financial inclusion, a sufficient level of the labor force, high trade openness, more Internet users, and higher government efficiency are associated with greater economic growth. In contrast, government spending, unemployment rate and inflation level have the opposite effect. In addition, the study has yet to find empirical evidence for the impact of the total population on economic growth. Based on inheriting previous studies, this study presents contributions on some of the following aspects.
Firstly, certain theoretical contributions are related to financial inclusion and its relationship to economic growth. Besides, identify economic and institutional factors and their extent to economic growth. Secondly, the study will supplement empirical research findings on the impact of financial inclusion and other factors on economic growth. Finally, from the research results, some solutions are proposed to help improve people's access to finance at the international level to enhance stability and sustainable economic growth.
The structure of the rest of the research will be as follows. In Section 2, the related literature is discussed. Section 3 presents the theoretical frameworkof financial inclusion. The research data and model specification will be proposed in Section 4.
Section 5 presents empirical results and Section 6 is the conclusion. Literature review In the field of financial inclusion, two main directions of research are usually focused on. The first one reflects different financial inclusion definitions from various studies integrating several aspects such as availability, usage, access or barriers. Efforts to develop a financial inclusion index (IFI) can come from different perspectives, such as multidimensional indexes (Sarma, 2008; Sarma, 2012; Camara et al., 2014; Kim, 2015), financial access index (Honohan, 2008) or composite index (Demirguc-Kunt et al.
In particular, the Financial Accessibility Survey (FAS) from the IMF and the Financial Global Findex (FGF) from the World Bank are the two primary data sources. In the second direction, based on the developed financial inclusion index, another series of empirical studies focus on the analysis of factors affecting financial inclusion (Sarma, 2012; Camara et al., 2014; Park et al., 2015) and the link between financial inclusion, economic growth or income inequality at the household, corporate and national levels (Marcelin et al., 2022; Emara et al., 2021; Kim et al., 2018; Hu et al., 2021; Nizam et al., 2021; Pomeroy et al., 2020; Feghali et al. Comprehensive financial measurement Scholars have combined various aspects of financial inclusion into a single index in the first series of theoretical and empirical studies. A good measure of financial inclusion should include three criteria: simplicity of calculation, ability to combine multiple dimensions and comparability across countries (Kempson et al.
Sarma (2008) built a comprehensive financial index using a series of indicators related to the banking sector, such as availability, bank penetration and usage. These indices are developed based on the normalized inverse Euclidean distance and calculated for a particular country in a year. According to the author, this method is convenient for building an index satisfying the necessary and straightforward mathematical properties. Sarma (2012) revised, updated and used the index to examine its correlation with economic development.
Inheriting Sarma (2008), Kim (2015) used three dimensions of use, availability and penetration with equal weight. Park et al. (2015) also established the same multidimensional index as Sarma (2008) and instead of a specific year, a seven-year average was used. Thus, although the applied dimensions may vary between studies, the research framework and the calculation method of Sarma (2008, 2012) have received significant attention from scholars in the construction of financial indicators.
Providing a multi-dimensional financial inclusion index for 82 countries, Camara et al. (2014) developed financial inclusion across three dimensions: usage, barriers and access. In terms of usage further divided into three indicators: (i) have a savings account, (ii) own at least one financial product, and (iii) have a new loan with a formal financial institution. The second aspect of barriers refers to the obstacles that prevent individuals from accessing formal financial services and it consists of four indicators: affordability, distance, trust and documentation requirements.