Luận văn thạc sĩ: Các yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến hành vi nhà đầu tư cá nhân ở Việt Nam

Luận văn thạc sĩ nghiên cứu ueh factor affect individual investor behavior in viet nam, đánh giá hiện trạng, phân tích vấn đề, đề xuất biện pháp hoàn thiện trong lĩnh vực .

• Tác giả: Le Nhu Hai Long
• Người hướng dẫn: Dr. Cao Hao Thi
• Trường học: University Of Economics Ho Chi Minh City
• Chuyên ngành: Development Economics
• Đề tài: Factors Affect Individual Investor Behavior In Vietnam Stock Market Case Study: Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange
• Loại tài liệu: Thesis
• Năm xuất bản: 2009
• Địa điểm: Ho Chi Minh City

Mục lục chi tiết

• 1. Abstract
• 2. Introduction
• 3. Literature review
• 3.1. Prospect Theory Value
• 3.2. Heuristics
• 3.3. Herd Behavior
• 3.4. Overconfidence
• 3.4.1. Private Information
• 3.4.2. Public Information
• 3.4.2.1. Rumor information
• 3.4.2.2. Information disclosed by listed company
• 3.4.2.3. Information from professional organization/institution
• 3.5. Demographic Characteristics of Individual Investor
• 4. Conceptual Framework
• 5. Research Design
• 5.1. Indicators of Independent Variables
• 5.1.1. Rumor Information
• 5.1.2. Information disclosed by Listed Company
• 5.1.3. Information from Professional Organization/Institution
• 5.1.4. Information from Inside Company (Insider Information)
• 5.1.5. Herd Behavior
• 5.2. Indicators of Moderator Variables
• 5.2.1. Gender
• 5.2.2. Age
• 5.2.3. Investment Experienced
• 5.3. Measures of Dependent Variable: Individual Investor Behavior
• 5.4. Measurement Scale
• 5.5. Sample
• 6. Descriptive Analysis
• 7. Reliability Analysis of the Pre-test

Tóm tắt

I. Tổng quan về các yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến hành vi nhà đầu tư cá nhân tại Việt Nam

Hành vi của nhà đầu tư cá nhân tại Việt Nam chịu ảnh hưởng bởi nhiều yếu tố khác nhau. Những yếu tố này không chỉ bao gồm thông tin từ thị trường mà còn liên quan đến tâm lý và hành vi xã hội. Nghiên cứu này sẽ phân tích các yếu tố chính ảnh hưởng đến quyết định đầu tư của cá nhân, từ đó giúp các nhà đầu tư hiểu rõ hơn về hành vi của mình.

1.1. Định nghĩa hành vi đầu tư cá nhân

Hành vi đầu tư cá nhân được định nghĩa là cách mà các nhà đầu tư cá nhân ra quyết định trong việc mua bán chứng khoán. Điều này bao gồm việc phân tích thông tin, cảm xúc và các yếu tố tâm lý khác.

1.2. Tầm quan trọng của việc nghiên cứu hành vi đầu tư

Nghiên cứu hành vi đầu tư giúp các nhà đầu tư nhận diện được các yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến quyết định của mình, từ đó có thể đưa ra các chiến lược đầu tư hiệu quả hơn.

II. Các thách thức trong hành vi đầu tư cá nhân tại thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam

Thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam đang đối mặt với nhiều thách thức, ảnh hưởng đến hành vi của nhà đầu tư cá nhân. Những thách thức này bao gồm sự thiếu hụt thông tin, tâm lý bầy đàn và các yếu tố kinh tế vĩ mô.

2.1. Thiếu hụt thông tin và ảnh hưởng đến quyết định đầu tư

Nhiều nhà đầu tư cá nhân không có đủ thông tin cần thiết để đưa ra quyết định đầu tư chính xác. Điều này dẫn đến việc họ dễ bị ảnh hưởng bởi các tin đồn và thông tin không chính xác.

2.2. Tâm lý bầy đàn trong đầu tư

Tâm lý bầy đàn là hiện tượng mà nhà đầu tư thường theo đuổi hành vi của số đông, dẫn đến những quyết định đầu tư không hợp lý. Điều này có thể gây ra sự biến động lớn trên thị trường.

III. Phương pháp nghiên cứu hành vi nhà đầu tư cá nhân tại Việt Nam

Để hiểu rõ hơn về hành vi của nhà đầu tư cá nhân, nghiên cứu này sử dụng các phương pháp định tính và định lượng. Các phương pháp này giúp phân tích sâu sắc các yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến quyết định đầu tư.

3.1. Phương pháp định tính

Phương pháp định tính bao gồm phỏng vấn sâu và khảo sát nhóm, giúp thu thập thông tin chi tiết về tâm lý và hành vi của nhà đầu tư.

3.2. Phương pháp định lượng

Phương pháp định lượng sử dụng các bảng hỏi và phân tích số liệu để xác định mối quan hệ giữa các yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến hành vi đầu tư.

IV. Kết quả nghiên cứu và ứng dụng thực tiễn

Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy có nhiều yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến hành vi của nhà đầu tư cá nhân tại Việt Nam. Những yếu tố này bao gồm thông tin từ công ty niêm yết, thông tin từ tổ chức chuyên nghiệp và tâm lý bầy đàn.

4.1. Thông tin từ công ty niêm yết

Thông tin tài chính và các quyết định của ban lãnh đạo công ty có ảnh hưởng lớn đến quyết định đầu tư của nhà đầu tư cá nhân.

4.2. Tác động của tâm lý bầy đàn

Tâm lý bầy đàn có thể dẫn đến những quyết định đầu tư sai lầm, khi nhà đầu tư không tự mình phân tích thông tin mà chỉ làm theo số đông.

V. Kết luận và triển vọng tương lai của hành vi đầu tư cá nhân

Hành vi của nhà đầu tư cá nhân tại Việt Nam sẽ tiếp tục phát triển và thay đổi theo thời gian. Việc hiểu rõ các yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến hành vi đầu tư sẽ giúp nhà đầu tư đưa ra quyết định tốt hơn trong tương lai.

5.1. Tương lai của thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam

Thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam có tiềm năng phát triển lớn, nhưng cũng cần phải cải thiện về thông tin và giáo dục cho nhà đầu tư.

5.2. Khuyến nghị cho nhà đầu tư cá nhân

Nhà đầu tư cá nhân nên tự trang bị kiến thức và kỹ năng phân tích để đưa ra quyết định đầu tư chính xác hơn, tránh bị ảnh hưởng bởi tâm lý bầy đàn.

Trích đoạn nội dung tài liệu

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES HO CHI MINH CITY THE HAGUE VIETNAM THE NETHERLANDS VIETNAM- NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS FACTORS AFFECT INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR BEHAVIOR IN VIETNAM STOCK MARKET CASE STUDY: HO CHI MINH STOCK EXCHANGE (SUMMARY) A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS By LE NHU HAl LONG Academic Supervisor: Dr. CAO HAO THI HO CHI MINH CITY, JULY 2009 UAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add [e-mail] Table Of Contents Abstract .3 Demographic Characteristics oflndividual Investor . Data Analysis and Empirical Findings .5 Hierarchical Regression Analysis . Conclusions and Recommendations .5 Future Research Directions . 20 UAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add [e-mail] Abstract The objectives of this research are to determine the main factors influencing individual investor behavior, to determine the relationship between factors and behavior of individual investors. The scope of the research is limited to individual investor in Ho Chi Minh City. The results indicated that jive factors including Information disclosed by listed company, Information from professional organization/institution, Rumor information, Information from inside company, and Herd behavior demonstrate a significant influence upon individual investor behavior. The hypothesis testing results indicated that most hypotheses in the conceptual framework were supported except the influence of individual demographic characteristics on individual investor behavior. Introduction The first securities trading center of Vietnam stock market (VSM) was launched in July 2000 in Ho Chi Minh City as a pilot project. The second securities trading center was established in Hanoi five years later in March 2005. Till December 31st, 2008, there had been 170 stocks listed on Ho Chi Minh stock exchange (HoSE) with total capitalization value of VND169,346 billions, 168 stocks listed on Hanoi securities trading center (HaSTC) with total capitalization value ofVND50,428 billions. 1 Most investors still keep in mind a lesson they had learnt when the market index had trotted up to peak at 571.04 points on July 61h, 2001 until it had quickly collapsed to the trough of below 130 points. As a result of this, many investors who just shortly before were making massive profits had ended up with huge debts. Another similar event did occur in 2006, during which VN-Index had achieved at 632.69 points, which is far higher than previous record of 571.04 points, until it had kept dropping down constantly and finally maintained at around below 400 points in March, 2006. Within two months, investors had seen a quick unexpected change and failed to react effectively. I Bao cao phan tich nen kinh t6 VietNam 2008 va thj tnrang chfrng khoan 2009 (Vietnam economy in 2008 and stock exchanges in 2009 analysis report). Retrieved Feb 201\ 2009 from: http://www.vn/FileStore/File/2009/01/25/Bao_cao_nam_2008-FPTS.pdf 1 UAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add [e-mail] The instability of VSM that had been witnessed in the two cited periods above is particularly due to the impact of the so-called "psychological element" on individual investors - investors usually follow exactly any move of majority. Vietnamese investors do not only lack information about the market, but also they are in short of experience. Basically, they base their trading activities on those of majority. It is easy to see that VSM did not operate under any economic rules; theories of market efficiency completely fail. Perhaps, this is the time to use the theory based on basic human psychology to explain the behavior of investor in VSM. Based on the above background, this research focuses on the following objectives: • To determine the main factors influencing individual investor behavior. • To determine the relationship between factors and behavior of individual investors. • To suggest recommendations for policy markers, listed company, and individual investors. Descriptive statistics are firstly used to describe the basic features of the data in this research; secondly, this research using qualitative study to explore potential factors which may have an impact on the decision making of the individual investor. Finally, quantitative study measures the decision making of individual investor and factors that have identified. The statistic software used in this research is SPSS 15. The respondents in this research consist of individual investors who had trading account at securities company in Ho Chi Minh City. Literature review Decision-making is a complex process. Decisions can never be made by just relying on the personal resources and complex models, which do not take into consideration the situation. Decision-making can be defined as the process of choosing a particular alternative from a number of alternatives. It is an activity that follows after proper evaluation of all the alternatives. They need to update themselves in multidimensional 2 UAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add [e-mail] fields so that they can accomplish the desired results/ goals in the competitive business environment. In the present of Vietnam stock market situation, behavioral finance is becoming an integral part of the decision-making process, because it heavily influences investors' performance. They can improve their performance by recognizing the biases and errors of judgment to which all of us are prone. Behavioral finance deals with individuals and ways of gathering and using information. Besides, behavioral finance seeks to understand psychological decision processes. In addition, it focuses on the application of psychological and economic principles for the improvement of financial decision- making. According to behavioral finance, investor behavior derives from psychological principles of decision making to explain why people buy or sell stocks. Behavioral finance focuses upon how investors interpret and act on information to make investment decisions. This research based on the basic findings and principal theories within behavioral finance in order to explain the psychologies of various irrational investor behaviors in stock market, which lead to the hypotheses of this research.1 Prospect Theory Value Figure 1 Prospect theory value function (Source: Kahneman, D. Prospect theory: An analysis of decision making under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291) 3 UAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add [e-mail] Prospect theory was developed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) as a psychologically realistic alternative to expected utility theory. It allows one to describe how people make choices in situations where they have to decide between alternatives that involve risk, in particular, choices under risk are usually underweighted in comparison with outcomes under certainty. The tendency mentioned will lead to a pervasive effect of aversion to risk when provided sure gains while risk seeking involving sure losses. The phenomenon can be simply described in S-shaped value function as Figure 1.2 Heuristics Heuristics is the decision process by which the investors find things out for themselves, usually by trial and error, lead to the development of rules of thumb. In other words, it refers to rules of thumb which humans use to made decisions in complex, uncertain environments. According to Fromlet (200 1), heuristics can also be defined as the "use of experience and practical efforts to answer questions or to improve performance". Due to the fact that more and more information is spread faster and faster, life for decision-makers in financial markets has become more complicated. Heuristics may help to explain why the market sometimes acts in an irrational manner. The following will introduce a number of heuristics of investor psychology that affect investor decision-making.1 Herd Behavior According to Chan (2003 ), herd behavior may be the most generally recognized observation on financial markets in a psychological context. In addition, according to Black (1986), investors with no access to insider information, irrationally act on noise as if it were information that would give them an edge. The first hypothesis of this research is proposed: H 1: Herd behavior have an impact on individual investor behavior.2 Overconfidence Investors are usually overconfident about their abilities to complete difficult tasks successfully, such as picking winning stocks. They believe their knowledge is more accurate than it really is and that their forecasts are more precise than their experience 4 UAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add [e-mail] should validate. Several factors contribute to overconfidence. One of these factors, called the illusion of knowledge, is having more information available. Increased levels of information do not necessarily lead to greater knowledge because many investors may not have the training, experience, or skills to interpret this information. Also, investors tend to interpret new information as confirmation of their prior beliefs. Daniel et al. (1998) offer a theory is that stock prices overreact to private information and under-react to public information. Besides, according to Odean (1998), overconfident traders believe their private information to be more precise than it is. From these ideas, it can be consider that the decision making of individual investor affected by private and public information. • Private Information According to Merton (1987), individual investors tend to hold only a few different common stocks in their portfolios. Economist argues that individual investors hold only a few different common stocks in their portfolios because they have insider information of the company which stock they are holding. In addition, Damodaran et al. (1993) proved that insider trading is motivated by private information. Besides, in the present, insider trading is also taking place in the Vietnam stock market; some investors rely on the relationship with someone who has responsibility in the listed company to capture the information, which is not announced outside yet, to implement buying/selling this stock. The following hypothesis is proposed: H2 : Information from inside company (insider information) have an impact on the individual investor behavior. • Public Information According to French el al. (1986), public information is information that becomes known at the same time and available to the whole market, no one trades on the information before it is released. In the present of Vietnam stock market, public information can be come from different source, such as: rumor information, 5 UAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add [e-mail] information disclosed by listed company, information from professional organization/institution. Rumor information According to Schindler (2007), a rumor is a piece of information that has poor authenticating data, not yet been confirmed by official sources or denied by them. A rumor can either be confirmed as true or be found to be false at a certain point in the future. In the present of Vietnam stock market, there are many types of rumor that could influence the stock market. The following hypothesis is proposed: H 3 : Rumor information have an impact on the individual investor behavior. Information disclosed by listed company Information disclosed by listed company Is the information about the company financial performance, board of director, future project, and stock trading of member in board of director. This information must be disclosed to the public through the media, such as: newspaper, television, or the website of the company. The following hypothesis is proposed: H 4: Information disclosed by listed company have an impact on the individual investor behavior. Information from professional organization/institution Information from professional organization/institution is the information announces to the public through by the media. This information source is come from investment funds, specialized magazines, or from the report of prestigious organization/institution (i. report ofHSBC, JP Morgan, and Merrill Lynch about Vietnam stock market). This source of information has an important for individual investors when they make decision to buy or sell stocks. When a good analyzed report about stock market announces, this will take investors to buy stock, and in the other hand, they will sell stock. The following hypothesis is proposed: 6 UAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add [e-mail] H 5 : Information from professional organization/institution have an impact on the individual investor behavior.3 Demographic Characteristics of Individual Investor Grinblatt et al. (2001) found influence of several demographics (age and gender) on the propensity to buy stocks. Besides, according to Westernholm el al. (2003), male investors trade more frequently and are more diversified than female investors. In addition, according to Chen et al. (2005), an experienced trader may be less inclined toward behavioral biases in their trading decisions.