UNIVERSISTY OF ECONOMICS INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES HO CHI MINH CITY THE HAGUE VIET NAM THE NETHERLANDS VIET NAM – NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS THE NEXUS AMONG CORRUPTION, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM PROVINCES OF VIETNAM By NGUYEN THI MY PHUC MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH, November 2015 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com UNIVERSISTY OF ECONOMICS INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES HO CHI MINH CITY THE HAGUE VIET NAM THE NETHERLANDS VIET NAM – NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS THE NEXUS AMONG CORRUPTION, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM PROVINCES OF VIETNAM A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS By NGUYEN THI MY PHUC Academic Supervisor: DR. NGUYEN HOANG BAO HO CHI MINH, November 2015 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com ABSTRACT This research investigated the impact of public expenditure in investment on the economic growth under the presence of corruption. Three stage least squares method is employed in order to indicate this effect in the panel data of 63 provinces/cities in Vietnam from the period 2008-2013. The findings are: (1) The lower corruption is associated with the lower in public expenditure in development investment; (2) The lower corruption has a positive effect on economic growth; (3) Public spending in development investment has a positive effect on economic growth and the presence of corruption do not reduce this effect; (4) The lower corruption has a positive effect on private investment; (5) In term of the openness, foreign investment can reduce corruption.
Thereby, some implications have been proposed to foster the growth of economy. Keywords: corruption, public investment, public expenditure, Three stage least squares method i TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First of all, I would like to express my deep and sincere gratitude to Dr. Nguyen Hoang Bao, my supervisor. His inspiration together with intellectual supports has encouraged me to complete this thesis.
Special words of thanks also go to Dr. Truong Dang Thuy for his critical comment, patient guidance and enthusiasm throughout the course of writing my thesis. Finally, I would like to express my deepest gratefulness and thankfulness to my family, my friends, my colleagues, for all the continuing support for me to complete this research work. ii TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT.
II TABLE OF CONTENTS .V LIST OF FIGURES. VI LIST OF TABLES. THE KEYNESIAN THEORY ABOUT GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE. GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE IN NEO-CLASSICAL THEORY.
ABOUT CORRUPTION IN PUBLIC EXPENDITURE IN INVESTMENT .1 Public spending in investment and economic growth .2 Corruption and public spending in investment .3 Corruption and growth .4 Private investment in the relationship with growth, corruption and public investment .5 Foreign investment in the relationship with growth and corruption. METHODOLOGY AND DATA. DATA SOURCES AND CHARACTERISTICS.2 MEASURE GDP FOR EACH PROVINCE .3 CHOICE OF CORRUPTION VARIABLE .4 ENDOGENOUS AND EXOGENOUS VARIABLES. 20 iii TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.2 CORRELATION OF COEFFICIENTS.
THE IDENTIFICATION PROBLEM OF THE SIMULTANEOUS EQUATION. CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTION. SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCHS. THE LIMITTED OF THESIS.
46 iv TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com ABBREVIATIONS BRVT Ba Ria Vung Tau FDI Foreign Direct Investment FGLS Feasible generalized least squares GDP Gross Domestic Product GMM Generalized Method of Moments GSO General Statistics Office IMF International Monetary Fund OLS Ordinary least squares PCI Provincial Competitiveness Index TSLS Three Stage Least Squares USAID United States Agency International Development UTC The Unmatched Count Technique VCCI Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry VND Vietnam Dong WB World Bank v TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.2: The relationship among corruption, public investment, private investment, foreign investment and growth .1: A combination of four scatter plots shows the correlation with GDP per capita variable of: informal cost, non-State investment capital, public spending and foreign investment capital (these variables excluding informal cost are in value log).2: A combination of four scatter plots shows the correlation with public spending in investment variable of: State investment capital, informal cost, foreign investment capital and GDP per capita (these variables excluding informal cost are in value log). 28 vi TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com LIST OF TABLES Table 4.2: Correlation of coefficients .3: Three stage least squares regression with impact of corruption on government expenditure in investment and economic growth (when i.id variable is not considered) .4: Three stage least squares regression with impact of corruption on government expenditure in investment and economic growth (when i.id variable has been used) .5: Three stage least squares regression with impact of corruption on government expenditure in investment and economic growth .6: Three stage least squares regression with corruption affecting government expenditure in investment, taking an interaction variable into consideration .1: The list of provinces .3: The development investment expenditure of Vietnam (2007-2013) .4: The data on the development investment capital of Vietnam (2007-2013).5: The ranking of 63 provinces/cities in the PCI index in the period from 2008 to 2014. 50 vii TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT Public investment and its role in economic development have been affirmed by many economists and policy makers. In developed or developing countries, public expenditure in investment is considered as a foundation in long run economic growth (Tanzi and Zee, 1997).
According to Cashion (1995), Kocherlakota and Yi (1997), Fuente (1997) and Kneller et al., (1999) public investment has positive effects on economic growth, especially in the case of developing countries (cite in Kneller R. However, a positive impact of public investment depended on institution. It was found that a better institutional setting may foster the positive effects of public investment (de la Croix and Delavallade, 2009; Dort et al. While a poor institution, especially corruption, waste is popular (Tanzi and Davoodi, 2002b).
Firstly, corruption impacts the public investment in both quantity and quality. There is a wide spread of corruption on over the world, especially in developing countries in the recent years. From its detrimental impact on economic growth, corruption distorts decision of higher political, retards economic growth (Tanzi, 1998). (2000) stated that: “corruption is a cancer in society and is slowly eating away at the public sector”.
It reduces the return in public investment, lead to the economic development down following by Kneller R. In conclusion, through the impact on the public investment, corruption retards the economic development. Vietnam is a developing country in Southeast Asia with over 90 million inhabitants. By political and economic reforms (Doi Moi) launched in 1986, Vietnam’s GDP per capita increase from around 100$ to over 2000$ by the end of 2014 within a quarter of a century.
In reducing poverty, Vietnam has a dramatic change in which the number of people dropped from over 50% in the early 1990s to 3% today (World Bank, 2015). With the development of two big cities is Ha Noi and Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam inherited the contribution of 63 provinces in the process of its own economic development. The GDP of Ha Noi and Ho Chi Minh account for 10.3% and 20% of the GDP of whole country 1 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail. GDP per capita is the highest at Ba Ria Vung Tau province (about 160 million VND in 2013) and Lai Chau province is the smallest (9 million VND in 2013).
The rate in GDP per capita was also found different among 63 provinces/cities. The share of public investment or public expenditure in investment in Vietnam accounted for a high rate of government expenditure activities. In detail, in the period 2017- 2013, average public investment expenditure of Vietnam accounted for 29% of budget (show in Appendix 3). This average figure on the provincial scale is 25% (Bac Can province) and 22.
However, the growth rate in GDP of Bac Can province and Cao Bang province is quiet small, 5.78% in 2013 be compared with this rate of a whole country is 5. The question is whether corruption could be a cause make differently in provincial economic growth through the impact of public investment? In this research, we aim to investigate whether public expenditure in investment has a negative effect on provincial economic growth when there is a presence of corruption’s effect or not.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVE This paper examines whether corruption has a negative effect on public investment and economic growth, and through this investment decelerates economic growth. In other words, the study test whether bureaucracy or “grand” corruption results in increasing the share of public investment on GDP leading to lower economic growth rate. In order to get that, this research find out more about corruption on its own expansion will affect public expenditure in investment, and whereby has direct and indirect effect to economic growth.3 RESEARCH HYPOTHESES H1: The higher corruption is associated with the higher public expenditure in investment.
H2: The higher corruption has a negative effect on economic growth. H3: Public investment has a positive effect on economic growth. 2 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com H4: The lower corruption has a positive effect on private investment. H5: The foreign corruption has a negative effect on corruption.4 THESIS STRUCTURE The thesis remains in five chapters.
Chapter 2 reviews literature about the relationship among public investment, economic growth and corruption, also some other factors effect to the development such as foreign investment and private investment. Chapter 3 discusses the data characteristics and an estimation method employed in the study. Chapter 4 presents empirical result on the scope of 63 provinces/cities in Viet Nam in period 2008-2013. Chapter 5 is the conclusion of this study, comment about the policy implication, also the limitation of this study whereby suggest some further studies.
3 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail. LITERATURE REVIEW This chapter presents the theory and empirical review about various links among public expenditure, corruption, private investment, foreign investment and economic growth. The Keynesian theory about government expenditure Following Keynesian theory, fiscal policy can be used to intervene in the economy by government through the impact of public expenditure. There is an increasing in government expenditure will lead to a risen in economic growth in the condition of an expansionary fiscal policy (cited in Odihiambo, 2015).
Public expenditure stimulates consumer demand, arouses business investment, support employment and contribute to rising income. That if government expenditure is not occurred, the economic growth will go down, have no building infrastructure, and protect civil rights. The public expenditure investment in public good is usually lower in return, need a long time to payback, but it is necessary for the social economic development. The public spending in investment has been creating more productivity, a long term impact to the economy.
Beside, spending in budget is also instrument to boost private investment by its support in the quality in infrastructure, the environment investment, etc. However, if there is an overspending in budget (exceeded the optimal thresholds), it will prevent the economic growth. This is similar with Richard Rahn (1986) (cited in Anh P. That is there is an optimal level of government spending in economic growth maximizing.
The optimal level of government spending is between 15% and 25% of GDP. Its efficiency is not only depending on what government spends but also the level of spending Tejvan Pettinger (2008). 4 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com The economic growth Optimal size of Government spending as a share of GDP government Figure 2. Government expenditure in Neo-classical theory In 1980s, there is a dramatically risen in some model of neoclassical about the role of public expenditure in economic growth.
In this time, many empirical researches were born. Typically, it is begun with the endogenous growth model of Barro (1990) on the research about the role of public spending and tax on the economic growth process. To build this model, Barro (1990) based on the maximum welfare behavior of all sectors in the economy included government region, households, and in production of private firm.