VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY HANOI UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS FACULTY OF FINANCE & BANKING Qe Gov GRADUATION THESIS 2023 Lecturer: PhD. Vu Thi Loan Student: Bui Duc Viet Class: QH 2019E TCNH CLC 3 ID Card: 19050780 Hanoi - 2023 DECLARATION I hereby declare that this graduation thesis is my own work, with the support of my supervisor, and has not copied the work of others. This is my own research work. The data and secondary information used in the thesis are sourced and clearly cited.
This statement is entirely my responsibility. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS A completed study would not be done without any assistance. Therefore, the author who conducted this research gratefully gives acknowledgement to their support and motivation during the time of doing this research as a requirement of completing my thesis. The author would like to thank the Board of the University of Economics and Business-Vietnam National University for creating favorable conditions for the author to complete this thesis.
The author would like to thank the lectures of the Faculty of Finance and Banking, University of Economics and Business-Vietnam National University for their help the author in the thesis implementation process. In particular, I would like to express my endless thanks and gratefulness to my supervisor PhD. Vu Thi Loan who always gives me continuously advices throughout the process of completion of my thesis. Her encouragement and comments had significantly enriched and improved my work.
Without her motivation and instructions, the thesis would have been impossible to be done effectively. Thank you sincerely! TABLE OF CONTENTS ))20P0. 4 LIST OF ABBREVIA TION.-- 5< 5s nàn HH HH HH HH HH nghệ 7 ñkxy0)32(00.1 The urgency of the SuĐj@C.2 Objectives Of the SEU.3 Object and Scope of the Study.4 Research qUu€StÏOI. ----s-- 5s th HH HH trrkrtrrkrtrrkrrrrkrike 11 1.‹--- sen Hàn HH Hư Hà Hư Hàng nhà này 11 1.6 Expected contribution of the topic .--55-5«cretrtrirtrirtiiriiirrree 12 Chapter 2: Research Overview And Theoretical Basis Of Factors Affecting Recovery From COVID-19 Pandemic.1 Research OV€TVỈ©W.
s11 HH HH HH TH 1g Hi niệu 13 2.2 Overview Of COMeStiC FESCATCH n6.3 RESCATCH GODS nh he e<.2 Theoretical basis of factors affecting the recovery of enterprises after the (2.1 Theoretical basis of influencing factors of the COVID 19 pandemiic.2 Theoretical foundations Of recOVery frOM CLISIS .e---e«cccerseeerereerrrerrrerrree 21 Chapter 3: Research And Methodology. sàn Hà Hà Hà Hàng nghiên 26 3.--- --sscct tr 1H He giệt 31 E990 (ì0xìn (212.---s--ss+ct HH HH HH Hà He nrriet 31 K37 21x n6 nn.3 Data processing Ime€fOdÌS.-c«-cc«ccxerekritrirtrtrtrirtritrirriirrrirriirrririrrrrrrrrrrrerrii 32 Chapter 4: Research Results And Assessment Of Factors Affecting Business Recovery Of Vietnamese Listed Firms From The COVID 19 Pandemiic.1 Business situation of enterprises before and during the pandemiic.1 Business situation of enterprises before the pandemiC.2 Business situation of enterprises during the pandlemiC.2 Recovery of businesses after the pandemiC.1 Recovery of the AViation ÏndlUSÉT.2 The recovery Of Touristm DUSỈTI@SS@S.-- «-©c«-ccs+tE+ktEEkrtkkrtkkrtttitrirrirrrrrrkerriee 43 4.3 The recovery of Import-EXport enf€TDFÏS@S .3 Results of analysis of factors affecting post-epidemic damage and recovery44 chN) an 3i nen ốốố.2 Analysis results offactors affecting post-epidemic r€COV€FJ.4 Summary Of Tests of HypotheSeS.-- 5s nrrekg 47 Chapter 5: COMCIUSION«0.1 Discussing research F€SuÏ(S.----5-- 55 sexy Hy HH HH trrkrrrkrrrkrrrke 50 REFERENCES.à HH HH nà Hà HH HH TH HH He 52 LIST OF ABBREVIATION Abbreviation Full name ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease 19 EFA Exploratory Factor Analysis FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product HOSE Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange HNX Hanoi Stock Exchange OLS Ordinary Least Square SPSS Statistical Package for the Social Sciences SME Small And Medium Enterprise VIF Variance Inflation Factor LIST OF FIGURES Figure 3.1: Diagram of the research DFOCSS.1: Diagram of Revenue and Profitability of Aviation Enterprises before The COVID-19 pandeMic.2: The damage caused by the COVID-19 epidemic of The Aviation Industry "`.3: The damage caused by the COVID-19 epidemic of The Tourism Industry SAHEHYHTHHTHENHEHTREHEREEEEEEHEE-ESEEHEE-EEEEHEE-EESEESHESE-EERHERE-ESEESEESHESEEESEEREESESEESEESHESESESHESEEEESEESEESHEEREESEESESEESSE 41 Figure 4.4: The damage caused by the COVID-19 epidemic of the Import-Export IUSẨTV .5: The Aviation Industry's post-COVID-19 reCOVETY .6: The recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic of The Tourism Industry 43 Figure 4.7: The recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic of The Import-Export CU ee 44 LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1: Variables in the research mOđeÌ.2: List of enterprises included in the StUdỈV.1: Revenue and Profitability of some Tourism Enterprises .2: Sales and Profitability of some Import-Export enterprises.3: Statistical results describe the variables in the model. HH HHYHHHHHHHHHHHHERERESESEEEESEEsk 47 Table 4.6: Summary Of Tests Of Hypotheses .-«csestsekkkieirrksisisrrrrrsre 47 Chapter 1: Introduction 1.1 The urgency of the subject The COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed profound and far-reaching consequences upon the global economy and financial markets. Its disruptive force has triggered severe declines in incomes, a surge in unemployment rates, and widespread disruptions across diverse sectors, including transportation services, manufacturing, and intricate supply chains spanning the globe.
The impact of COVID-19 has been particularly notable due to the significant disturbances and restrictions imposed on the flow of goods and services, subsequently inflicting a detrimental blow to business performance. Consequently, the efficiency and viability of businesses have experienced a marked reduction. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on businesses worldwide. It caused disruptions in global supply chains, leading to shortages of materials and delayed deliveries.
Many businesses, especially in sectors like hospitality, travel, and retail, had to shut down temporarily or permanently due to reduced revenue and mounting debts. Financial challenges arose from decreased revenue, increased expenses, and limited access to financing. The effects varied across industries and regions, with some sectors experiencing more severe consequences. Business adaptability, recovery, and agility have been vital for navigating the challenges and seizing opportunities during these unprecedented times.
Until 2022, Vietnam has controlled the pandemic and has returned to the new normal and gradually recovered. In Vietnam, the recovery of companies post-COVID-19 has been mixed. Some sectors are experiencing a faster recovery, while others face ongoing challenges. The manufacturing sector, especially electronics, textiles, and footwear, is showing signs of recovery due to strong global demand and improved trade activities.
Domestic-focused industries like retail, food and beverage, and e-commerce are gradually recovering as restrictions ease and consumer confidence improves. However, the tourism and hospitality industry has been severely impacted, with significant revenue losses due to travel restrictions and reduced tourism. The recovery of this sector depends on the reopening of borders and the return of international tourists. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have faced various challenges, including limited access to capital and disrupted supply chains.
The government has implemented support programs to aid their recovery. Factors influencing the recovery of companies include government policies, global economic conditions, vaccination 10 rates, and businesses' adaptability. Recovery trajectories vary among industries and individual companies. On what factors does that recovery depend to help the company assess its financial sustainability and possibly help it cope with future difficulties? The objective of this study was to find and examine the factors that influence the recovery of businesses after COVID-19.2 Objectives of the study Objective: The main goal of this study is to comprehensively assess the impact of various factors on the recovery of enterprises in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.3 Object and Scope of the study Research Object: The primary object of this study is to identify the factors that significantly impact the recovery of businesses in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Research Scope: The study will specifically focus on these three industries, namely aviation, tourism, and import and export during the recovery period from 2022 to gaina comprehensive understanding of the unique challenges they faced and the recovery strategies they adopted during and after the pandemic.4 Research question @ What factors could theoretically affect recovery from crises/ pandemics including COVID-19? @ How do these factors affect recovery in Vietnam? @ What recommendations can be drawn from the research results? 1.5 Research methods The qualitative research carried out is an overview of related previous studies, from the research overview, the author has drawn a research history in groups of sub- topics, then chronological order and above many different markets. Qualitative studies are also carried out through descriptive analysis, comparison, and evaluation of companies and industries listed on the stock market in terms of the impact and recovery after the COVID-19 epidemic. “Quantitative research is research that uses different methods (mainly statistics) to quantify, measure, reflect, and interpret relationships between factors (variables).” Nguyen Dinh Tho, 2011). Use regression model and evaluate the factors affecting recovery.
The study was carried out using the technique of collecting secondary data through the financial 11 statements of 50 enterprises in 3 industries of aviation, export and tourism on the Vietnamese stock market.6 Expected contribution of the topic This research aims to contribute to the current body of knowledge by being one of the pioneering studies to assess and analyze the factors and recovery ofbusinesses in the post-COVID era. By utilizing empirical data and employing appropriate research methodologies, the study will shed light on the specific factors that impact business recovery in the face of the pandemic's aftermath. Drawing upon the research findings, this study will provide valuable recommendations for businesses, investors and managers operating in the post-COVID period. These recommendations will be derived from the empirical evidence and insights obtained through the comprehensive analysis of influencing factors and business recovery.
The aim is to offer practical guidance and strategies that can help businesses, investors and managers enhance their recovery, adapt to the new normal, and navigate the challenges and uncertainties of the post-COVID environment. 12 Chapter 2: Research Overview And Theoretical Basis Of Factors Affecting Recovery From COVID-19 Pandemic 2.1 Overview offoreign research Ever since the identification of COVID-19 as a global pandemic, the academic community has been actively engaged in conducting research to comprehend the far- reaching implications ofthis global phenomenon. A comprehensive reviewof the existing literature confirms that recent studies have primarily focused on examining the impact of COVID-19 on businesses, particularly in the context of the impending economic downturn during the pandemic and the strategic management policies adopted to navigate the post- crisis period. The effects of COVID-19 on businesses have varied due to factors such as the nature of their operations, geographical location, prevailing economic conditions, and the ability of enterprises to adapt and innovate in times of crisis.
Advanced economies, such as the United Kingdom, have also witnessed adverse effects on corporate credit as revealed by Brown, et al. Moreover, studies by Bartik, et al. (2020) and Juergensen, et al (2020) have reported significant financial vulnerabilities in the United States. Several sectors, including retail, hospitality, food service, and entertainment, have been disproportionately impacted by COVID-19.
Stringent lockdown measures implemented in countries like China and other parts of Asia, where many manufacturing plants are located, have resulted in severe disruptions to the supply of finished products. Consequently, businesses reliant on suppliers from these regions have experienced vulnerabilities in their supply chains. Thukral, et al (2021) notes that as manufacturing resumes and products begin to ship from China, small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) supply chains are affected by additional factors, such as increased freight rates due to higher costs for flights and containers. The tourism and hospitality industry, as well as the sports industry, have also faced significant challenges due to COVID-19.
The pandemic has led to the cancellation or postponement of travel, competitive sports, and major events like the Olympic Games and Football Championships to prevent mass gatherings. Consequently, the tourism and hospitality sectors, which often comprise small tour operators, car rental companies, restaurants, and accommodation facilities (hotels and motels), have experienced a 13 substantial negative impact. Previous research has shown that businesses, regardless of their size, possess the ability to establish conditions for a rapid recovery froma crisis. Currently, businesses are responding to the economic impact of COVID-19 through various strategies, including strengthening business recovery by diversifying suppliers, enhancing their digital assets to facilitate online sales, improving employee benefits, and adapting their business models through pivoting or downsizing.