MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF FORESTRY *** STUDENT THESIS VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS TO CLIMATE CHANGE FOR ECOSYSTEM BASED ADAPTATION: CASE STUDY IN VAN LONG WETLAND NATURAL RESERVE, GIA VIEN DISTRICT, NINH BINH PROVINCE Major: Natural Resources Management Faculty: Forest Resources and Environmental Management Student: Mai Phuong Thao Student ID: 145309881 Class: K59A Natural Resources Management Course: 2014 - 2018 Advanced Education Program Developed in collaboration with Colorado State University, USA Supervisor: Nguyen Thi Thanh An Hanoi, 2018 ABSTRACT During 2 months conducted this study, I received lots of help and encouragement from many people without whom this study would have never happened .First and foremost, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor Mrs Nguyen Thi Thanh An for the continuous support of my student thesis study and research, for her motivation, enthusiasm, and immense knowledge. Her guidance helped me in all the time of research and writing of this thesis. Beside my advisor, I would like to thank the administration of Vietnam Forestry University, Faculty of Forest Resources and Environmental Management, Department of Environmental with enthusiasm to impart valuable knowledge for us. My sincere thanks also goes to many people for their contribution to this research; Mr.Mai Van Quyen- Manager in Van Long NR, Ninh Binh province; in Gia Vien district who provided me many useful knowledge about local knowledge about ecosystems, management system and create some great opportunities for me to meet and work with local people in Van Long NR.
I would especially like to thank local people in communes, they spent more time answering lots of question related to climate change impacts and preparedness and help me to understand situation and challenges they are facing. Finally, I would further like to thank my family, who always support and helped me in my research. Hanoi, 29 August 2017 Mai Phuong Thao i TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT. i TABLE OF CONTENTS.
ii LIST OF FIGURE. iv LIST OF TABLE. v GLOSSARY OF TERMS USED IN THE THESIS. Introduction and problem statement.
Data analysis methods. Object, variables and tools in Vulnerability assessment.RESULTS AND DISCUSSION. Defining social-ecological systems profile in Van Long NR. Assessing potential impacts and vulnerability of SESs in Van Long NR to climate change.
Potential impact assessment. Proposing Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) intervention(s) for Van Long NR. Limitations and suggestions further studies. 60 APPENDICE iii LIST OF FIGURE Figure 1.
ICEM CAM methodology. Ecosystem-based Adaptation conceptual framework. 15 iv LIST OF TABLE Table 3. Detail about data collection and sources.
General information about interviewees. Social-ecological systems in Van Long NR. Climate stress degree. Future trend of climate.
Sensitivity level of SES in Van Long NR. Impact level of climate change on SESs in Van Long NR. Adaptive capacity of social ecological system in Van Long NR. Potential Impacts to and Vulnerability of SESs by same threats.
Potential Impacts and Vulnerability caused by threats to SESs. 51 v GLOSSARY OF TERMS USED IN THE THESIS Climate change (CC): the change of climate status from the average state and/or the climate variability in a long period of time, usually several decades or longer. Climate change may be due to the internal natural processes or external impacts, or human activities including land use process which cause changes in the composition of the atmosphere. CAM: A method of assessing the vulnerability to climate change based upon the factors of Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive capacity.
EbA: Ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation (EbA) are defined by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)1 as “the use of biodiversity and ecosystem services to help people adapt to the adverse effects of climate change, as part of an overall adaptation strategy” (CBD Secretariat, 2009) Exposure: degree of climate stress upon a particular unit (of populations, resources, property, and so on); it may be represented as changes in climate conditions. It is characterized by intensity, frequency, or the magnitude of climate of variation events or patterns. Sensitivity: degree to which a system will be affected by, positively or negatively, climate change. The consequence can be direct (such as changes in plant productivity due to changes in temperature) or indirect (such as damages caused by increased flood frequency, which is a result of sea level rise).
Ecosystem: A dynamic complex of plants or animals, and microorganism‟s population and their non-living environment interacting as a functional unit. Humans make an integral part of the ecosystem. Socio-ecological systems (SESs) Socio-ecological systems (referred also as human- environment systems, or human -nature systems) emphasize that human beings and the vi nature are interconnected, interactive in a continuous manner and mutually develop, thus, become integral systems. There is no single definition of SESs.
Systems theory differentiates various types of systems, which include functional, structural and hierarchical systems with different attributes such as being closed, open, static, dynamic, simple or complex. SESs is characterized by dynamic complexity with multi-forms and multi-variables. The specific attributes of a system depends on the selected definition (Hummel et al. In term of vulnerability assessment, researcher developed approach to identify and analyze SESs for the purpose of vulnerability assessment and identification of Ecosystem based Adaptation solutions, not recommending on how to recognize and identify Social-Ecological System separately.
Adaptive Capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences Adaptation: adjustment in natural or human systems in response to the current or expected impacts of climate change to mitigate climate change risks. Climate Change Adaptation (CCA): is the adjustment in the natural systems or in human activities in order to cope with the current or expected impacts of climate to mitigate climate change risks in the future and to recognize and take advantages of the benefits from climate change. Vulnerability: the extent that a system is vulnerable or unable to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change, including climate change and extreme weather events (IPCC 2014). vii ABBREVIATION AC Adaptive capacity CC Climate change CCA Climate Change Adaptation CAM Climate change adaptation and mitigation methodology CBD Convention on Biodiversity EbA Ecosystem-based Adaptation ICEM International Centre for Environmental Management IMHEN Institute for Meteorology, Hydrology, and Environment MONRE Ministry of Natural resources and Environment NR Nature reserve SESs Social-ecological systems VA Vulnerability Assessment VND Vietnam Dong Keyword: Ecosystem-based Adaptation, Vulnerability, Social Ecology System viii CHAPTER 1.
Introduction and problem statement Climate change, include sea level rise and unpredictable extreme weather events such as thunderstorms, storms, tropical low pressures will be the most serious challenge to low and relatively flat areas, especially fresh wetland areas. Wetland conservation to against climate change and maintaining the ecosystem services from it is crucial. Wetlands have high biodiversity and play an important role in economic and social development because it brings several ecosystem services such as: environmental protection and disaster prevention, the accumulation and limitation of environmental pollution, climate regulation, maintaining biodiversity and protecting the environment, balance of O2, atmospheric CO2, local climate regulation (rainfall, temperature, humidity) and reduce the greenhouse effect. Wetlands also make communities more resilient to the impacts of climate change.
They reduce the impacts from floods, droughts, and cyclones and provide buffers against sea level rise and storm surges. Wetlands conservation, sustainable use, and restoration can contribute significantly as efficient and effective nature-based solutions for local community to mitigate and adapt with climate change impacts. This is idea of Ecosystem- based Adaptation: take advantage of ecosystem to mitigate or adapt with adverse effects from climate change. Ecosystem- based adaptation solutions have been applied in many regions.
Viet Nam is a natural disaster-prone country, which is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Growth population, urbanization, and rapid economic development impact issues have collided to threaten the country‟s sustainable development. Regarding wetland management, wetlands play a vital role in the lives of the local people and the socio-economic development of the country. Wetland is very diverse with an area of approximately 5,810,000 ha, accounting for about 8% of all wetlands in 1 Asia, of which freshwater wetland accounts for about 10% of total wetlands Among Vietnam's wetlands, there are 68 wetland areas (341,833 ha) with biodiversity and environmental importance in many different forms (Ministry of Technology and Environment, 2001).
However, available data and information about the location and status of wetlands, as well as legal frameworks and management policies relating to wetlands have been dispersed and incomplete. The lack of a common framework for vulnerability assessment and measuring adaptive capacity has led to gaps in mainstreaming of potential solutions in policy and society to help social-economical system as well as ecosystem deal with climate change due to shortage of information and approaches to implement or monitor the contribution of ecosystems to adaptation. There is need for a common framework, methodology and indicators to be used for vulnerability and adaptive capacity assessment, which should include both socioeconomic and biophysical variables and measures of economic strengths, human capacities and environmental capabilities for wetland nature reserve. Also, there are only few researches and studies about vulnerability of inland wetland areas for effective responses to climate change.
There is also need for vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning in a participatory manner. And in term of proposing nature-based solutions response to climate change adverse effects for Van Long NR in sustainable manners, I conducts the study:” Vulnerability Assessments to climate change for Ecosystem based Adaptation: Case study in Van Long Wetland Natural Reserve, Gia Vien District, Ninh Binh Province” 2 1. Study site Van Long is one of the largest North Vietnam inland wetland, is located in Gia Vien district, Ninh Binh province. It is about 90 kilometers from Hanoi to the south and 20 kilometers from Ninh Binh city to Van Long nature reserve.
Since 1960, more than 30 km of a dike system was built on the left bank of the river that made 3,500 ha in Van Long became a wetland, allowing migratory birds feeding and promoting biodiversity. In 1999, it became a nature reserve, listed as a wetland protected area and special-use forest in Vietnam. The isolated limestone mountains surround by watercourse "accidentally" became the salvation of many animals and plants escape from human destruction. Van Long NR is located on the administrative boundary of 7 communes of Gia Vien district: Gia Hung, Lien Son, Gia Van, Gia Lap, Gia Tan and Gia Thanh.
In the north, it adjacent to Hoa Binh province; southward is Cot lagoon; east side is Ha Nam province and the west is Xich Tho commune, Nho Quan district, Ninh Binh province. Van Long has been put into operation since 1998 and now it is an attractive tourist destination of Vietnam with largest white-tailed langur population in Vietnam. Van Long has the craggy and steep terrain with more than three-quarters of the nature reserve area is limestone ridge. This ridge has many peaks: Sum (233 m), Mao Ga (308 m), Ba Chon (428 m), Co Tien ( 116 m ), Meo Cao (206 m), Dong Quyen (328 m), May ( 138 m ), Luong (128 m) and Mieu ( 72 m ), stretch from Northwest-Southeast.
There are some vegetation types: natural-regenerated secondary forest on limestone; formation class shrub and herbaceous vegetation in the dry valley; vegetation at slope and top of limestone; hygrophilous and aquatic plants. Most of the land area is covered by vegetation. In addition, cultivation areas, villages in the region are also the provide food and shelters for many groups of plants and animal. Wetlands area strongly affected by the hydrological regime of river systems: Day River, Dap River, Lang River, 3 Boi River, and Hoang Long River.
The hydrological regime is also dependent on seasonal rainfall in the year. During the growing season, aquatic plants often absorb all nutrients in the photic zone, limit the biomass development of phytoplankton and lead to the food shortage in the aphotic zone.