THESIS CINNAMON TEAL BREEDING ECOLOGY IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY OF COLORADO Submitted by Casey M. Setash Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology In partial fulfillment of the requirements For the Degree of Master of Science Colorado State University Fort Collins, Colorado Summer 2018 Master’s Committee: Advisor: William L. Aldridge David Olson Copyright by Casey M. Setash 2018 All Rights Reserved ABSTRACT CINNAMON TEAL BREEDING ECOLOGY IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY OF COLORADO The foundation of effective waterfowl management is an abundant and resilient waterfowl population, which begins with an understanding of what drives population size and growth.
Population growth rate is the product of a number of vital rates, all of which remain relatively unknown for the cinnamon teal (Spatula cyanoptera). I investigated the interactions between biotic and abiotic factors influencing the basic demographic rates of cinnamon teal during the breeding season in the San Luis Valley of Colorado. Specifically, I assessed the relationship between the habitat around a selected nest site and cinnamon teal nesting success. Additionally, I evaluated whether a relatively novel approach to surveying social groupings of waterfowl can act as an effective index of breeding effort and success for cinnamon teal, the intraspecific variation in nest attendance patterns during incubation and how it affects nest survival, and the rates at which breeding females and ducklings survive the breeding season.
This research has the potential to enhance the understanding of the basic population ecology of this overlooked species and provide information about vital rates that can be used in future analyses and management of the population on a larger scale. I found that cinnamon teal select nest sites with habitat characteristics that are also associated with a higher probability of nest survival (Chapter 2, this thesis). Specifically, I observed cinnamon teal selecting nest sites characterized by a lower proportion of forbs relative to what was available, which were also associated with higher nest survival among the nests I observed. I established that weekly transect surveys assessing the social groupings of cinnamon ii teal throughout the breeding season have the potential to act as an index of reproductive success if done on a larger scale (both temporally and geographically; Chapter 3, this thesis).
I also found differences in the nest attendance patterns during early incubation compared to late incubation, which were also impacted by time of day and temperature (Chapter 4, this thesis). Finally, I estimated breeding season duckling and hen survival rates that were comparable to other waterfowl species and provided suggestions for future cinnamon teal researchers (Chapter 5, this thesis). iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would first and foremost like to thank my advisor, Dr. Bill Kendall, for providing me with the opportunity to conduct this research.
It was an honor to work with him, and his compassion and unique perspective have pushed me to become a better ecologist, scientist, and person. I would also like to thank my committee members, Dr. Paul Doherty, Dr. Cameron Aldridge, and Dave Olson.
All three have been extremely generous with their time and commitment to this project, and their guidance was invaluable as I wove my way through this portion of my career. I owe a special debt of gratitude to Dave Olson, without whose initiative and passion for conservation this project would not exist and the field of waterfowl ecology would be worse off. I appreciate all of the time and thought that have gone into this project on the part of US Fish and Wildlife Service employees, both within the Division of Migratory Birds and the National Wildlife Refuge system. Special thanks go to Casey Stemler, Jim Dubovsky, Kammie Kruse, and Dave Sharp for getting this project off the ground and supporting me throughout this process.
The staff of the San Luis Valley National Wildlife Refuge Complex could not have been a more wonderful group of people to spend the summers with. Suzanne Beauchaine, Sharon Vaughn, Scott Miller, Dean Lee, Pete Striffler, Dewane Mosher, and David Dean were all invaluable in helping with the logistics of field work, providing me with housing and vehicles during my field seasons, and allowing this research to take place under their watch. I would also like to thank all of the folks living in the San Luis Valley who made me feel at home and who have a special tie to the wildlife and the land in that region. It’s a special place and I feel very lucky to have lived there for three summers.
Thanks especially to Jenny Nehring and Cary Aloia iv for being my SLV role models and constantly highlighting the work being done by women in waterfowl/wetlands research. Stephanie Ferrero and Brent Frankland with Colorado Parks & Wildlife (CPW) also shared their knowledge of the area and provided assistance via telemetry flights to locate some lost birds. Thanks to Dr. Jim Gammonley of CPW for not only providing financial support for nest monitoring cameras, but also for paving the way for this research to take place with his past work on cinnamon teal and in the San Luis Valley.
None of this work would have been possible without the technicians and volunteers that helped out along the way. Meghan Keating, Brandon Nooner, Liz Smith, Katherine Scott, Kelsey Persyn, Josh Houghtaling, Christina Meuhlbauer, Hailey Glasko, Michelle Moyer, all of my video and photo reviewers, and all of the Student Conservation Association/Pathways interns who helped out (especially Adam Braddock, Cloe Traylor, and Hilary Syvertson), thank you for bearing with me throughout this learning process and for being the workhorses of the project. You made field work and living in the bunkhouses so enjoyable, and I’m glad to call you all friends. Thank you to everyone in the Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology department and the USGS Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit who has supported, challenged, and laughed with me over the course of my Master’s.
Gabriele Engler provided constant logistical support over the course of three remote field seasons and the day-to-day administrative challenges of being a graduate student. Thank you to all of the other graduate students who have shaped my time at Colorado State University. The other members of the Kendall lab, Brian Gerber, Perry Williams, Kristen Pearson, and Maria Dzul, were extremely influential mentors, role models, and friends. The Doherty Lab welcomed me into their group when I was without a v lab group to attend, as did the Bailey/Huyvaert “Superpopulation” Lab.
All of these people provided instrumental advice on both professional and personal levels. Thanks to my mom, for showing me the delightful world of birds at a young age and for always being willing to lend an ear, Michael, Amy, and Pete for showering me with humor and joy throughout a sometimes-difficult degree, and my dad, who is the strongest, hardest working man I know. A special thanks goes to Adam Behney for not only geeking out about ducks with me on a regular basis, but for being a constant source of support and being generally wonderful. Finally, thanks to my cat, Aloo, for falling asleep on my keyboard every time I tried to write this thesis.
vi TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT. iv LIST OF TABLES. ix LIST OF FIGURES. xii Chapter 1 - INTRODUCTION.
7 Chapter 2 - NEST SITE SELECTION INFLUENCES CINNAMON TEAL NEST SURVIVAL IN COLORADO. 37 Chapter 3 - SOCIAL INDICES OF CINNAMON TEAL REPRODUCTIVE SUCCESS IN COLORADO. 67 Chapter 4 - NEST ATTENDANCE PATTERNS OF CINNAMON TEAL DURING INCUBATION. 103 Chapter 5 - HEN AND DUCKLING SURVIVAL OF CINNAMON TEAL IN COLORADO 112 SUMMARY.
136 Appendix A: HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL STRUCTURES CONSIDERED TO DESCRIBE THE VARIABILITY IN CINNAMON TEAL NEST SURVIVAL AND ASSOCIATED AICc VALUES. 138 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: Descriptions of covariates used in analyses of cinnamon teal nest survival and nest site selection on Monte Vista NWR from 2015-2017 and the predicted direction of the effect of each covariate on the response.2 Coefficient estimates for each covariate corresponding to analyses of cinnamon teal nest site selection and nest survival. Nest survival was analyzed in a multistate framework to assess the effects of covariates on both the laying and incubation stages of nesting. Cinnamon teal nests included in the analysis were located on Monte Vista NWR from 2015-2017.3: AICc table for nest site selection analysis using discrete choice models of cinnamon teal nesting on Monte Vista NWR in 2017.4: Summary of cinnamon teal nest fates for nests found of Monte Vista National Wildlife Refuge from 2015-2017.5: 90% confidence set (based on Akaike weights) indicating support for models explaining cinnamon teal nest survival on Monte Vista NWR from 2015-2017.1: Social indices calculated from yearly plots of cinnamon teal numbers surveyed from 2015-2017 on Monte Vista NWR and the corresponding estimates of reproductive success.
Areas 1-4 correspond to indices created by Hochbaum et al.2: Pearson correlations (r) between social indices calculated from plots of cinnamon teal numbers surveyed from 2015-2017 on Monte Vista NWR and independent measures of reproductive success.3: Observer-specific detection estimates and standard deviations for each social grouping of cinnamon teal averaged across 17 social index surveys conducted on Monte Vista NWR in 2017.1: Covariate definitions and predicted relationships with three response variables associated with cinnamon teal nest attendance: recess frequency, duration, and incubation constancy.2: Predictions of the effects of nest attendance parameters on cinnamon teal daily nest survival rate during incubation.3: Summary of cinnamon teal nest monitoring videos and photos from nests found in 2016 and 2017 on Monte Vista NWR.4: β coefficient estimates corresponding to covariates used to evaluate cinnamon teal nest attendance patterns on Monte Vista NWR from 2016-2017. Covariates were included in generalized linear mixed-effects models and were assessed for three response variables: recess duration, recess frequency, and incubation constancy.5: AICc table showing top models explaining frequency of recesses during cinnamon teal incubation on Monte Vista NWR from 2016-2017.6: AICc table showing top models explaining duration of recesses during cinnamon teal incubation on Monte Vista NWR from 2016-2017.7: AICc table showing top models explaining incubation constancy during cinnamon teal incubation on Monte Vista NWR from 2016-2017.1: Recapture history for cinnamon teal marked from 2015-2017. Web tag recaptures also include recaptured HY birds with torn webbing believed to indicate tag loss. Recapture and recovery information is not yet available for birds marked in 2017.
aRecaptures and recoveries x denote birds banded in the listed year, not birds recaptured that year. For example, two AHY birds that were banded in 2015 were recaptured in either 2016 or 2017.2: Candidate model set for estimating cinnamon teal duckling survival on Monte Vista NWR using Burnham’s joint live recapture and dead recovery model. Age = parameter is allowed to vary by age of the duck (hatch year or after hatch year), Seas = parameter is allowed to vary between breeding season and non-breeding season, Year = parameter is allowed to vary by year of the study (2015-2017).3: AICc table indicating performance of models estimating breeding season hen survival for cinnamon teal breeding on Monte Vista NWR from 2015-2017. 125 xi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1: Diagram of nesting stages for cinnamon teal nest survival analysis in a multistate framework.
For nest failures, the stage at failure is allowed to be uncertain.2: β parameter estimates corresponding to nest site selection (from univariate discrete choice models) and nest survival (from hidden Markov model) during cinnamon teal laying and incubation on Monte Vista NWR from 2015-2017. Nest site selection results are based on 57 cinnamon teal nests from 2017, while nest survival results are based on 85 nests pooled across 2015-2017. Points indicate apparent effect and error bars indicate 95% confidence intervals.3: Relationship between nest initiation date and daily survival rate of cinnamon teal nests on Monte Vista NWR from 2015-2017 during the laying stage of nesting.4: Relationship between nest initiation date and daily survival rate of cinnamon teal nests on Monte Vista NWR from 2015-2017 during the incubation stage of nesting.
