NUCLEAR CONUNDRUM OF IRAN AND NORTH KOREA From Proliferation Crisis to Non-Proliferation Promise? This book examines Iran and North Korea from a non-proliferation lens. It highlights how these two countries stand out as nuclear challenges vis-à-vis the NPT and unpacks their nuclear history, recent developments, nuclear resolve in the times of the pandemic and future challenges in a comprehensive manner. It shows how these two issues remain similar, distinguished, dynamic but static so far progress on non-proliferation is concerned. The need for understanding these issues is accentuated as the current state of play related to both remain worrisome and unpredictable.
Further, recent events such as the nuclear signalling during the Ukraine crisis; failure of the tenth NPT Review Conference at a time when there is an erosion of mutual trust between two nuclear adversaries—the US and Russia, has renewed attention to nuclear issues in the post-pandemic era. While challenges multiply, consensus is difficult to arrive at as global institutions remain paralysed. Lofty goals of nuclear disarmament and preserving of nonproliferation order seems to have taken a backseat. The book assumes significance in this context.
It will be a valuable read for students, scholars, academicians, policy practitioners and anyone invested and interested in nuclear issues. Hina Pandey is a Policy Analyst, having demonstrated research experience focussing on nuclear issues, including non-proliferation, security, energy-politics and the US-India’s foreign policy. This book is a part of projects undertaken during her tenure at CAPS. She is currently working as a Consultant to the Disarmament & International Security Affairs Division (D&ISA), MEA, Gol.
Her work is also published by the Institute for Security & Development Policy (ISDP) Sweden, The Diplomat, Japan Forward, Stimson Centre, NIICE Nepal, Pakistan- Politico, Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) and Kalinga Institute for Indo-Pacific Studies (KIIPS). NUCLEAR CONUNDRUM OF IRAN AND NORTH KOREA From Proliferation Crisis to Non-Proliferation Promise? HINA PANDEY Introduction by Air Marshal Anil Chopra PVSM AVSM VM VSM (Retd) First published 2024 by Routledge 4 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN and by Routledge 605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2024 Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi The right of Hina Pandey to be identified as author of this work has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Print edition not for sale in South Asia (India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan or Bhutan) British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN:9781032617381 (hbk) ISBN:9781032617404 (pbk) ISBN:9781032617411 (ebk) DOI: 10.4324/9781032617411 Typeset in Adobe Caslon Pro by KW Publishers, Delhi CENTRE FOR AIR POWER STUDIES VISION To be an independent centre of excellence on national security contributing informed and considered research and analyses on relevant issues. MISSION To encourage independent and informed research and analyses on issues of relevance to national security and to create a pool of domain experts to provide considered inputs to decision- makers. Also, to foster informed public debate and opinion on relevant issues and to engage with other think-tanks and stakeholders within India and abroad to provide an Indian perspective.
In the loving memory of Mrs. Kadambari Pant (2014) Dr. Savita Pande (2018) Contents Preface Acknowledgements Tables and Figure Abbreviations Introduction 1. Theoretical Lens and Historical Developments 2.
The JCPOA Accord: Difficult Negotiations to Abandonment 3. US-North Korea Summit Diplomacy 4. China Factor in Nuclear North Korea 5. Sanctions and Pandemic: Proliferation Challenge Continues 6.
Conclusion Appendix Endnotes References Index Preface The year 2020 will be remembered as the year that left the state capacities of even the most technologically superior nations overwhelmed in fighting an unprecedented pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic jolted the world economically, socially, as well as psychologically, as never before in the last century of the evolution of modern nations, a threat of this nature had been witnessed. Indeed, epidemics, small scale conflicts, limited wars and natural calamities have always been predictable contingencies in the conduct of statecraft and foreign policy; however, the manner and scope in which COVID-19 unfolded had not been witnessed in the past hundred years. The global fight against this deadly pandemic included many efforts such as the race towards bringing a new vaccine, nation states’ management of their wherewithal, especially related to health-human security and their adaptation to newer practices in the conduct of foreign policy and diplomacy that included virtual summits.
COVID-19 being a ‘black-swan event’, challenged many orthodoxies and almost reshaped the security discourse in a way to acknowledge the need to strengthen attention and action toward addressing non-traditional threats. The pandemic also brought back the discussion on biowarfare into the current and evolving security conversations. Furthermore, it also created opportunities aimed at addressing not only the current challenge at hand but also led to the formation of newer partnerships to shape the post-pandemic world order. What remains most striking is that the pandemic pushed many nations to review complacencies in their national securitystrategy planning vis-à-vis emerging threats.
Additionally, one may also observe a shifting and rebalancing of states’ geopolitical and geostrategic equations while the pandemic was underway. Inevitably, the focus of the international community remained partially diverted from other issues. As the world grappled with COVID-19, two unresolved nuclear issues deteriorated into complex challenges. To begin with, on October 10, 2020, the North Korean leadership unveiled a new nuclear capable InterContinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) in its annual military parade.
Second, the Iranian Parliament too passed a domestic law on the December 23, 2020, that not only aimed at directing its Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran (AEOI) to conduct nuclear activities outside of the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) but also legitimised the same. The Iranian domestic law outlined certain measures to be taken as set obligations for the country’s AEOI. In short, it implied the undoing of crucial non-proliferation efforts of the JCPOA agreement. Both these developments hold severe implications for the future of the global nuclear non-proliferation order.
While both these developments remain worrisome from the standpoint of nuclear non-proliferation, with regard to North Korea, it is important to note that its nuclear development was accompanied by a narrative of zero COVID cases in the country. The advancement of the North Korean nuclear capabilities was evident despite the harsh pandemic and its nuclear resolve too remained unchanged. Throughout the pandemic, the leadership in Pyongyang maintained that it had successfully confronted the spread of COVID-19. On the other hand, the situation in Iran was in complete contrast as COVID-19 engulfed Iran to qualify as one of the worst hit countries in West Asia.
In fact, the Iranian COVID-19 situation even initiated a discussion in the US on the lifting of sanctions based on humanitarian grounds. Earlier, the conclusion of the JCPOA was hailed as a nonproliferation promise and the first Trump-Kim Summit too had generated some hope towards a meaningful dialogue on the goal of denuclearisation. For the US and North Korea, this was the first significant Summit between the siting heads of two adversarial countries that did not share diplomatic relations. Unfortunately, the deterioration of these two proliferation challenges compromised the newer non-proliferation promises.
By the year 2021, both these opportunities were lost as damp squib non- proliferation moments. To this day, progress on both issues remains stagnant and tied to the evolving bilateralmultilateral interactions, geopolitics and the nuclear resolve of both countries. Thus, the case studies of North Korea’s and Iran’s nuclear developments during the pandemic, their contrasts, similarities as well as their implications for the global nuclear non-proliferation regime are of immense significance. The objective of the current study is located in this context.
In an examination of the nuclear issues of both countries, one may observe that from 2015 and 2018 onwards, the US factor has acted as a significant externality in both the Iranian and North Korean case studies. The American role in addressing both these issues cannot be discounted as the denial and containment of the nuclear weapons capability to both these countries had been one of the prime objectives of the US nuclear non-proliferation strategy over all these years and it continues to remain so. In fact, one may argue that the US non-proliferation discussions have focussed heavily on Iran’s and North Korea’s development in the recent past. The US interlinkages became more entwined post the American withdrawal from the JCPOA and the conclusion of the landmark Trump-Kim Summit.
On various occasions, the US exerted direct influence that further impacted the nuclear conundrum.For instance, the US withdrawal from the JCPOA during the Trump Administration (2018) resulted in a complicated process of sanctions relief for the remaining parties, eventually leading to the Iranian breach of the terms of the JCPOA. Subsequently, for Iran, to adhere to its compliance with the JCPOA, the precondition of the US rejoining the deal with the same commitments were set. Similarly, on the other hand, the US approach to North Korea in the current Biden Administration is likely to shape any outcome of denuclearisation. Therefore any scholarly undertaking of the nuclear conundrum related to these two countries is bound to include the US policy and posture towards both.
Additionally, with the change in the US Administration in the year 2021, the time is right to deliberate, refresh attention and renew determination towards resolving these pending nuclear proliferation issues. It is for this reason the study has made an attempt to especially highlight the American interlinkages with the Iranian and North Korean nuclear conundrum in two subsequent chapters. In addition to the US linkages, with regard to North Korea, the role of China cannot be overlooked. Thus, in the end, the study has also attempted to bring forward China’s influence in the North Korean nuclear conundrum as a separate chapter.
This chapter has analysed how China has been able to uniquely shape the North Korean nuclear ambitions. Finally, to look forward in order to suggest a pathway, a critical review and stocktaking of the events impacting both issues in the recent past and their historical linkages become imperative. It is important to do so now, as these issues get increasingly woven into the current security dilemma of the countries they directly-indirectly affect, further making them more complex. A delayed response might affect the challenge negatively, further isolating any promise of resolution from the evolving reality; and the lack of progress on both these issues raises concerns for the future of the global nonproliferation order.
Acknowledgements This book in many ways is an outcome of my three research projects at CAPS—“Obama’s Prague Agenda”, “Iran’s Nuclear Conundrum: From Crisis to Promise” and “US-North Korea Standoff”, that set and empowered my research interest in the area of nuclear nonproliferation. A subject matter at the intersection of nuclear energy and nuclear weapons; theory and policy; prognosis and diagnosis; negotiation-strategy-diplomacy; academia and policy research. This book is an attempt to unpack the recent nuclear conundrum of Iran and North Korea separately while bringing forth their shared linkages with the US non-proliferation policy and other relevant externalities. The aim is to generate interest and add value to the understanding of policy practitioners, strategic experts, students or readers who intend to satiate their ‘insights’ about the issues under scrutiny.