UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS INSTIUTTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES HO CHI MINH CITY THE HAGUE VIETNAM THE NETHERLANDS VIETNAM- NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS THE EFFECT OF WOMEN'S EDUCATION ON FERTILITY IN VIETNAM A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS By LE HOANG THIEN KIM r Academic Supervisor: DR. NGUYEN HUU DUNG - --··,, TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com CERTIFICATION I certify that the substance of this thesis has not already been submitted for any degree and is not being current submitted for any other degree. I certify that to the best of my knowledge any help received in preparing this thesis and all sources used, have been acknowledged in this thesis. I LE HOANG THIEN KIM • 1 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Firstly, I would like to thank my academic supervisor Dr.
Nguyen Huu Dung for his valuable advice, comments and making reference materials available to me. Particularly, thanks to these worthy instructions and kindly help from him, I can complete the research. I greatly appreciate Mr. Truong Thanh Vu for his technique assistance and , valuable comments to the study.
Many thanks are respectfully sent to my parents, my husband who are always encourage and sympathize with me I would like to thank to all teachers and staffs of the Vietnam- Netherlands programme at University of Economics HCM Finally, I am indebted to Measure DHS Office - ICF Macro, especially Bridgette James- data archive administrator for their assistance and permission to access VDHS 2002 data so that I can complete my thesis. " 11 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com TABLE OF CONTENTS CERTIFICATION. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS. iii LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES.
viii CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION .6 Structure of the thesis. 4 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW .1 Definitions, concepts related to fertility and its measures .2 Theoretical framework, empirical studies related to determinants of fertility .1 Household demand model .2 Demand- supply framework .2 Empirical studies related to effects of women's education on fertility. 25 CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY .1 Structure of the VDHS 2002. 26 111 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.4 Description of variables in the model .1 Poisson regression model (PRM) .2 Factor change in E(yJx) .3 Percent change in E(yJx).
37 CHAPTER FOUR: SOCIOECONOMIC CONTEXT AND PROFILES OF WOMEN'S FERTILITY .1 Geography and economy .2 Population and family planning policies and programs .2 Family Planning Policies and Programs .3 General characteristics of women's fertility .4 Differentials in education level of women .5 Family planning message .6 Children ever born. 49 " CHAPTER FIVE: FACTORS AFFECT WOMEN'S FERTILITY IN VIETNAM. 55 CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS. 56 IV TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.
58 REFERENCES APPENDIX v TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES Table 2.1: Narratives on the determinants offertility .2: Intervening variables in Cochrane's model on education and fertility .1: Basic demographic indicators .2: Distribution of ever-married women by background characteristics (%), Vietnam 2002 .3: Level of education of ever-married women, Vietnam 2002 (%) .4: Exposure to family planning messages on radio and television (%) .5: Children ever born by ever-married women aged 15-49, classified by place of residence and education level .1: Poisson Regression Results- Fertility model .1: Key variables and interrelations in a variant of Easterlin 's supply - demand model. 19 VI TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com ABBREVIATIONS ASFR Age-specific fertility rate CBR Crude birth rate CEB Children ever born GFR General Fertility rate GSO General Statistical Office PRM Poisson regression model TFR Total fertility rate US AID U. Agency for International Development VDHS Vietnam Demographic and Health Survey ./ Vll TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com ABSTRACT There are numerous studies indicate that women's education plays an important role in number of children ever born. This thesis aims to explore the effect of women's education on fertility in Vietnam by using the 2002 Vietnam Demographic and Health Survey.
Given the characteristics of observed fertility pattern, the study applied a count data model, namely, Poisson regression to examine the effects of women's education and other determinants on fertility. The major finding of the study is that women's education poses a strong effect to reduce children born in Vietnam. The higher the educated women, the lower the expected number of children. Similarly, education level of husband or partners also influence the change in the number of children.
Other determinants of importance in the study show that the higher the age and age of giving first birth, the lower the number of children ever born. Public program and knowledge such as of ovulatory cycle and family planning positively help reducing fertility. Women live in the rural areas still have a higher number of children than that of women in the urban areas. Recommendation for public policies and women health governance in Vietnam should focus more on the education for low-educated women, improving related knowledge of family planning, especially in the rural areas.
vm TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 Problem Statement Population growth and socioeconomic development are an important issue to Vietnamese policy makers and development planners. Vietnam has clearly made significant progress in slowing its rapidly population growth. The decline in fertility has been one of the most important demographic changes in recent years. The key element behind the change in population in Vietnam is considered as a result at fertility level.
Many policies to reduce population growth received increasing attention of the government and efforts to extend coverage of birth control services. In January 1993, the Communist Party Central Committee for the first time approved a resolution on population and family planning. The resolution proposed the objective of "applying small-sized family," and recommended that "each family should have one or two children" in order to lower fertility and stabilize population. At the micro level, high population growth leads to a more serious issue of poverty.
Poorer families, especially women bear the burden of a large number of children with fewer resources per child, further adding to the spiral of poverty. Low levels of income among the poorer families with many children leads to inadequate food availability, which perpetuates malnutrition, which in tum accelerates high levels of infant mortality. Studies by Ernst and Angst (1983), King (1985) have widely reviewed the relationship between family size, education and the health of children. Among poorer families, beyond a certain family size, additional children 1 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com are usually associated with lower average educational attainment and reduced levels of child health as measured by nutritional status, and mortality.
Moreover, research findings from a number of studies on fertility in Vietnam showed that women's education has a negative influence on fertility. For example, Nguyen (2001) found that women's education was an important factor helped to reduce the number of children born in Vietnam. In addition, a wide range of empirical studies showed that raising level of education especially for women had important effect on fertility. In their research in Sub-Sahara and Latin America, Jejeebhoy (1995) and Martin (1995) showed that the inverse relationship between education and fertility can be enhanced only after relatively high levels of education have been attained.
Although many scholars found that education has a negative effect on fertility, there are still certain limitations in term of estimation. Analysts employed statistical estimation techniques such as linear (Ordinary least squares- OLS) that are unsuitable for fertility data, which are based on counts (Long, 1997). This paper examines the relationship between female schooling and fertility in Vietnam through data from Vietnam Demographic and Health Survey 2002 (VDHS 2002), focusing on Vietnamese ever-married women aged from 15-49 years old. Findings from the study is expected to be used in monitoring the achievements of the government's population policies and programs in the years to come.
2 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.2 Research objectives The overall objective of the study is to examine the effect of women's education on fertility in Vietnam. Specifically, the objective of the thesis is to measure the likelihood of controlling fertility regarding to women's education.3 Research questions Based on the research objectives, the paper will find out the answer of the following question: Does women's schooling affect on fertility in Vietnam? 1.4 Hypotheses The main research hypothesis concerning women's reproductive behavior to be addressed is that fertility is significantly influenced by women's education attainment.5 Research Methodology Data from Vietnam Demographic and Health Survey 2002 (VDHS2002) 1 is • mainly used in this thesis. DHS funded by the U. Agency for International Development (USAID)-is a worldwide comprehensive survey on demographic, health and fertility indicators.
The VDHS 2002 was carried out in the framework of the activities of the Population and Family Health Project of the Committee for Population, Family and Children (previously the National Committee for Population and Family Planning). The VDHS 2002 was conducted by the General Statistical 1 Datasets and full explanation are available online from www.com 3 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com Office (GSO) on behalf of the Population and Family Health Project of the Committee of Population, Family and Children. Based on data set of VDHS2002, a model used in the analysis is the Poisson regression that estimates the likelihood that increasing women's schooling levels lower fertility in Vietnam.6 Structure of the thesis The thesis is organized in six chapters as follows: Chapter one: Introduction. The chapter introduces the research problem, research objectives, questions, hypothesis, and brief research methodology of the thesis.
Chapter two: Literature review. This chapter begins with the definitions and concepts of terms related to fertility. Then, theoretical framework and empirical studies are reviewed. Chapter three: Research methodology.
The chapter presents source of data, sub-data set for the study, explanation of the relevant variables and estimation strategy. i Chapter four: Socioeconomic context and respondent's profiles. It presents the characteristics of respondent and the background of fertility in Vietnam based on VDHS2002 data. In addition, it also provides descriptive statistics of fertility.
Chapter five: Factors affect women's fertility in Vietnam. The results of regression analysis, interpretation of coefficients and their marginal effects to fertility are shown. 4 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com Chapter six: Conclusions and recommendations. This chapter is to summarize the findings and conclude with some policy recommendations and research limitation.
5 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW The objective of the study is to examine the effect of women's education on fertility. Therefore, the definitions and concepts related to fertility, their measurements and determinants will be defined. After that theoretical framework and empirical studies are also reviewed. The final section is to summarize of the main point of literature review presented in the chapter.1 Definitions, concepts related to fertility and its measures In the jargon of demographers, there are two terms which are often used synonymously; in fact they are different from each other.
Fertility refers to a number of children born to women. In the Multilingual Demographic Dictionary of the United Nations, fertility means the actual reproductive performance of women, whereas fecundity denotes the physical ability to reproduce. Some measures of fertility are cited in Tran (2001: 60), Nguyen (2001:7), VDHS 2002, as follows: The most common measurement of fertility is the Total Fertility Rate (TFR). The TFR is the average number of children that would be born to a woman during her lifetime if she was to bear children at each age according to the prevailing age-specific fertility rates.
The TFR is obtained by summing the age- specific rates in a particular calendar year across all childbearing ages. Therefore, the TFR shows a cross sectional picture of fertility and consists of values from 6 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com many generations of women who are at different childbearing stages in any given year. It is unaffected by the age and sex composition of the population and thus separate change in actual fertility.