学校代码： 10246 学 号： 072017095 硕士学位论文 东南亚对崛起的中国的看法:安全 的视角 院 系： 国际关系与公共事务学院 专 业： 国际政治 姓 名： 阮成忠 指 导 教 师： 吴心伯 教授 完 成 日 期： 2009 年 04 月 30 日 UNIVERSITY CODE: 10246 STUDENT ID: 072017095 FUDAN UNIVERSITY SOUTHEAST ASIAN PERCEPTIONS OF A RISING CHINA: SECURITY ASPECTS MA THESIS Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for The Master Degree in the Graduate School of Fudan University By Nguyen Thanh Trung **** Fudan University 2009 Thesis Advisor: Prof. Wu, Xinbo Signature: Thesis Committee: Approved by Professor: Prof. Ren, Xiao __________________________ Professor: Prof. Zhang, Guihong Professor: Prof.
Zhang, Jiadong Graduate Program in Chinese Politics and Diplomacy Defense date: June 9, 2009 ii ABSTRACT This thesis examines the perceptions of Southeast Asian states of a rising China in the early years of the 21st century. Many analysts argue that China’s unprecedented rise is generating both opportunities and challenges to the Southeast Asian region, thereby substituting the previous regional relations and mechanisms with an increasing pivotal role of China in this area’s issues. Undoubtedly, Southeast Asian countries are culturally and ethnically linked with China, and this, coupled with a long history of fluctuating relations, contributes to shaping how they view China’s rise. The perceptions in general can be studied from many angles.
Nonetheless, in the scope of this paper, security aspects are the main pillar of the investigation. It does not mean that other factors which are tightly interwoven with security environs are neglected in the study, though. Hence, some remarkably influencing attributes such as historical background, trade, political relations, military enhancement, geographical location and the roles of Japan and the U. in the region are also cast an appraisal eye on to supposedly unveil the real perceptions of Southeast Asian states.
Admittedly, relations between these countries and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are getting much better than in recent decades, when compared to the big suspicion that once defined and shaped their relations. China’s image in the region have been getting more positive and more friendly since the late 20th century when this country declined to devalue its currency in the 1997 financial crisis and its strong commitment to building a Southeast Asian region of cooperation and prosperity by joining some regional institutions and providing aids as well. The study encompasses three main parts: the evolution of China-ASEAN (Associations of Southeast Asian Nations) relations in recent years, ASEAN perceptions of China, and future trends in their relations. Discussion of the perceptions mainly deals with the each individual country’s perceptions of China’s rising power since this thesis accepts that perceptions vary among ASEAN countries due to their different historical experiences, cultural background, economic might and ethnic demography; there are, nonetheless, also iii some dominant perceptions that not only pervade the entire ASEAN region but they also define China-ASEAN relations.
Examining ASEAN’s perceptions in this manner enables us not only to trace the changes in perceptions, but also to identify the stimulus that led to these changes. In addition, the thesis is theoretically constructed on the filtered combination of many international theories since it is impossible to give a precise assessment of the diversified Southeast Asian perceptions of a rising China based on a single existing theory. Nonetheless, given the upward tendency, economic interdependence, multilateral engagement, ASEAN cooperation and China’s commitments to the peaceful rise which are also strongly justified by other researchers’ works, it can be said that the positive, sanguine views of China’s rise in security aspects overwhelmingly prevail the reserved caution from a small proportion of regional military officials. Besides, by setting up a network of multi-layer dialogues, exchanging consultations and frequent exchanges of visits by leaders from both sides efficiently, China and ASEAN have enhanced the continual increase of mutual trust, support, cooperation and understanding.
They also show their commitments to solving all the unresolved disputes and problems in South China Sea through the channel of negotiations and in the spirit of win-win benefits. In addition, non-official (Track II) diplomacy or informal talks among multi-level officials are also employed to augment the deepening of cooperation and the avoidance of misunderstanding. From those findings, there is an entailing widespread perspective that China’s rise will pose no threat to the stability of the Southeast Asian region at least in the short and medium term. iv 摘要 这篇论文研究东南亚国家对中国在二十一世纪初崛起趋势所持的观点。毫无疑问， 东南亚国家在民族与文化方面跟中国有所相连，加上双方关系长期以来时有波动，这些 因素都或多或少影响了东南亚国家对中国崛起趋势的看法。一般来说，这种认知可从多 角度进行研究。然而，在本论文的范围内，安全问题是最主要的调查研究对象。不过， 这不意味着其他跟安全环境有密切关系的因素将在研究过程中被忽略。 因此，一些值得注意的影响因素诸如历史背景、贸易往来、政治关系、军事力量的 提升以及美国与日本在此区域扮演的角色，据称都可以被评价为已经泄漏了东盟 （ASEAN）国家的真实认知。诚然，东盟国家与中国人民共和国（PRC）在近十年来， 相互关系有了很大的好转，如果比起那种曾经限定与塑造他们之间关系的不信任状态。 二十世纪末，中国在此地区的形象变得更加积极和友好，当这个国家在 1997 年金融危 机中拒绝了贬值人民币并且其对建设东南亚区域合作和繁荣强有力的承诺以及参加一 些区域机构与艾滋病试验。 本文的研究内容包括三部分：中国与东盟关系在近几年的发展，东盟对中国的看法 和他们之间相互关系的发展趋向。对这种看法的讨论主要涉及到每个国家对中国上升力 量的看法，因为本论文承认这些看法由于东盟各成员因不同的历史经历、文化背景、经 济实力及民族人口统计而都有所不同。而毫无疑问，这些主导的看法不但普遍存在在整 v 个东盟区域，同时还限定了中国与东盟的关系。通过研究东盟看法这一方式可以使我们 不仅追踪到这些看法的转变，并且辨认出导致这些转变的因素。而从研究分析得出的结 论是，中国上升趋势被广泛认为对东南亚区域的稳定——至少在短中期内——并不会构 成威胁。 vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First of all, I am tremendously grateful for the financial support provided by United Board for Christian Higher Education in Asia (UBCHEA) to help me complete the master’s program at the prestigious university of Fudan.
Specifically, I would like to say thanks to Dr. Rita Pullium, the former director and Ms. Anne Ofstedal, the incumbent director of Fellowship and Scholarship Programs. Many thanks should be given to Ms.
Yvonne Xu, the foundation coordinator at Fudan’s Foreign Affairs Office and the director thereof for all the nice assistance I have received from them. I would like to say special thanks and express the deepest appreciation to my advisor Prof. Wu Xinbo ( 吴心伯 ), who has provided me with ample insightful ideas, inspired me fabulously, developed my critical, analytical, argumentative ability and proofread my draft with great care. He has continually encouraged me to take bold steps in doing scientific research.
Especially, he is always available whenever I need his academic help even though he is quite busy holding various high-ranking positions. Many thanks go to Prof. Zhu Fang, Prof. Wu Chengqiu and Prof.
Zhang Guihong, who have contributed analytical and critical comments on my draft. Hence, my thesis bears a lot of their constructive ideas and recommendations. I would like to say thank you to Prof. Jing Yijia, the former director of Chinese Politics and Diplomacy (CPD) program for all the help he has offered and all the kindness he has given to me.
In addition, many thanks should be given to Dr. Lin Tingjin, Ms. Xiao Suping, Ms. Jasmine and the whole Fudan staff for all the work they have done for the program and for the valuable, first-hand knowledge I obtained from them.
Many thanks should be dedicated to Dr. Dao Minh Hong, Dean of the Faculty of International Relations of Vietnam National University in Ho Chi Minh City for her full unhesitant support of my study in China. I also extend my thanks to Phan Thu Van, my Vietnamese friend who took the time to help me translate the abstract into Chinese and to other Vietnamese friends vii and my classmates in Fudan for the entire experience and information they imparted to me during my stay in Shanghai. Above all, special thanks go to my family.
Words themselves could not express my deep gratitude to them. I have been away from Vietnam for nearly two years to pursue the study and they have been incessantly supportive of me throughout the process. Without their encouragement, sympathy and attentiveness, I could not have finished the thesis. Thus, I owe innumerable debts to them, which I surely cannot pay off.
Although I have received a lot of help, deficiencies in the thesis are unavoidable. For these I alone am responsible for. viii VITA November 15, 1978 …………………….Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam 1997 -2001 ………………………………., VNU- Ho Chi Minh City 2003 – 2007 …………………………., VNU- Ho Chi Minh City 2007 – 2009 ………………………………MA student at Fudan University PUBLICATIONS Research Publications: None FIELDS OF STUDY Major: International Politics Field: Chinese Politics and Diplomacy ix TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT.ix TABLE OF CONTENTS .x LIST OF TABLES. xii LIST OF FIGURES.
CURRENT SITUATION IN SOUTHEAST ASIAN REGION. THE STUDY OF PERCEPTIONS IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS. LIMITATION OF PERCEPTIONS IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS. LITERATURE REVIEW ON ASEAN PERCEPTIONS OF CHINA.
THE IMPORTANCE OF ASEAN PERCEPTIONS IN CHINESE F.…… 15 CHAPTER 3 EVOLUTION OF CHINA-ASEAN RELATIONS IN RECENT YEARS20 3. THE DRAMATIC SHIFT FROM ENMITY TO AMITY. ASEAN PERCEPTIONS OF CHINA. VARIANCE OF PERCEPTIONS AMONG COUNTRIES.1 Mainland Southeast Asian perceptions.
Maritime Southeast Asian perceptions .5 Brunei and East Timor. SOME LINGERING CAUTIOUS ASEAN PERCEPTIONS. HOW THE PERCEPTIONS MAY EVOLVE. FACTORS AFFECTING PERCEPTIONS.
The South China Sea disputes settlement. The steady buildup of Chinese military capacity. The economic interdependence. Multilateral security framework.89 xi LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1.
China-ASEAN Leadership Exchanges (1997-2005) .27 xii LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1. China and Southeast Asian countries. Map of Strategic Straits of Southeast Asia. ASEAN’s trade share with China in 2007.
Trends in China-ASEAN Bilateral Trade 2000-2007. ASEAN perceptions of China in 2005. China’s image in six ASEAN countries in 2005-2006. South China Sea Claims .79 xiii ABBREVIATIONS ACD Asian Co-operation Dialogue AFTA ASEAN Free Trade Area APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation APT ASEAN Plus Three (China, Japan and South Korea) ARF ASEAN Regional Forum ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations ASEAN+3 ASEAN plus China, Japan and South Korea ASEM Asia-Europe Meeting ASP ASEAN Surveillance Process AWCS Airborne Early Warning and Control System BCP Burmese Communist Party CBM Confidence Building Measure CCP Chinese Communist Party CEP Comprehensive Economic Partnership DRV Democratic Republic of Vietnam EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone FDI Foreign Direct Investment FTA Free Trade AREA GMS Greater Mekong Sub-region GDP Gross Domestic Product IMF International Monetary Fund LPDR Lao People's Democratic Republic JMSU Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking MRC Mekong River Commission NGO Non Governmental Organization NPT Non Proliferation Treaty NSC New Security Concept ODA Official Development Assistance PLA People’s Liberation Army PMC Post Ministerial Conference (ASEAN) PRC People’s Republic of China SEATO Southeast Asian Treaty Organization TAC Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia UN United Nations UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNDP United Nations Development Program VFA Visiting Forces Agreement VCP Vietnam Communist Party WTO World Trade Organization xiv CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ‘The twenty-first century is the Chinese century’ Dr.
Sun Yat-Sen 1. It is unquestionably true that China has made numerous gigantic miracles to get itself out of the status of a poor country to become one of today’s top worldwide powers. Thanks to its impressive growth in three consecutive decades, Chinese cumulative clout is enhanced vigorously year after year. Undeniably, the unprecedented rise of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is a global reality.1 In 2008, to some measurements China’s foreign exchange reserves exceeded US$2 trillion, and the GDP in the official exchange rate was about $4.2 Right at the turn of the 21st century, Swaine and Tellis (2000) sanguinely believe that China will likely achieve true great power capabilities in 2015-2020 at the earliest or, more likely, in 2025.
The estimate is somewhat approximate and is based on a relatively optimistic assessment of China's economic growth prospects, though.3 Despite the fact that there are various projections of China’s rise, it is rather convergent among analysts that China’s catching up with the United States is just a matter of time. These upbeat views reflect Chinese governmental determinations, their proper policies for each developmental period and the acumen of Chinese people which have spurred China to have an amazing growth for the straight three decades. It is little doubt that “the rise of China, if it continues, may be the most important trend in the 21st century.”4 In addition, a rising China increasingly plays a more important and more active role on regional and global arena., The Rise of China in Asia: Security Implications (Carlisle, Pa.: US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, 2002), p. 2 Figures are extracted from People Daily online, Washington Post and CIA World Factbook 2008; for further details see <http://english.html>, <http://www.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/10/AR2009041003906.html>, and https://www.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/print/ch.
Swaine and Ashley J. Tellis, Interpreting China’s Grand Strategy: Past, Present, and Future (Santa Monica: Rand Corporation, 2000). Kristof, “China’s Rise,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 1 In any event, the scale of the impact of China’s growing emergence in Asia Pacific is clear.