9] at 03:01 12 March 2015 Downloaded by [93.9] at 03:01 12 March 2015 Transitions to Sustainable Development Routledge Studies in Sustainability Transitions SERIES EDITORS : JOHN GRIN, JAN ROTMANS AND JOHAN SCHOT Since around 1970, many groups in society have expressed strong concerns about social and environmental risks, climate change and the modernization path pursued by many around the world. In recent years these concerns are transformed into a widely shared sense of urgency. This sense of urgency includes an awareness that our entire social system is in need of fundamental transformation. But like the Downloaded by [93.9] at 03:01 12 March 2015 earlier transition between the 1750s and 1890s from a pre-modern to a modern industrial society, this second transition is also a contested one.
Sustainable development is only one of the options. This book series addresses the issue on how to understand the dynamics and governance of transition dynamics towards sustainable development. Transitions to Sustainable Development New Directions in the Study of Long Term Transformative Change John Grin, Jan Rotmans and Johan Schot In collaboration with Frank Geels and Derk Loorbach Transitions to Sustainable Development New Directions in the Study of Downloaded by [93.9] at 03:01 12 March 2015 Long Term Transformative Change John Grin, Jan Rotmans and Johan Schot In collaboration with Frank Geels and Derk Loorbach New York London First published 2010 by Routledge 270 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016 Simultaneously published in the UK by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2010. To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s Downloaded by [93.9] at 03:01 12 March 2015 collection of thousands of eBooks please go to www.
© 2010 Taylor & Francis All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereaf- ter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trade- marks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Grin, John.
Transitions to sustainable development : new directions in the study of long term transformative change / by John Grin, Jan Rotmans and Johan Schot ; in collaboration with Frank Geels and Derk Loorbach.—(Routledge studies in sustainability transitions) Includes bibliographical references and index. Rotmans, Jan, 1961– II.9'27—dc22 2009035625 ISBN 0-203-85659-7 Master e-book ISBN ISBN10: 0-415-87675-3 (hbk) ISBN10: 0-203-85659-7 (ebk) ISBN13: 978-0-415-87675-9 (hbk) ISBN13: 978-0-203-85659-8 (ebk) Contents Downloaded by [93.9] at 03:01 12 March 2015 List of Figures ix List of Tables xi List of Textboxes xiii Foreword xv CARLOTA PEREZ Preface xvii Introduction: From Persistent Problems to System Innovations and Transitions 1 JOHN GRIN, JAN ROTMANS AND JOHAN SCHOT PART I: The Dynamics of Transitions: A Socio-Technical Perspective FRANK W. GEELS AND JOHAN SCHOT I.1 Introduction: Exploration of the Research Topic 11 I.2 A Multi-Level Perspective on Transitions 18 I.3 Theoretical Backgrounds: Science and Technology Studies, Evolutionary Economics and Sociology 29 I.4 A Typology of Transition Pathways 54 I.5 Managing Sustainable Innovation Journeys 80 I.6 Reflections: Process Theory, Causality and Narrative Explanation 93 vi Contents PART II: Towards a Better Understanding of Transitions and Their Governance: A Systemic and Reflexive Approach JAN ROTMANS AND DERK LOORBACH II.2 A Complex Integrated Systems Perspective 114 II.3 Conceptual Framework for Analyzing Transitions 126 Downloaded by [93.9] at 03:01 12 March 2015 II.4 Research into the Governance of Transitions: A Framework for Transition Management 140 II.5 Case Study I: Parkstad Limburg: Regional Transition Management 161 II.6 Case Study II: The Dutch Energy Transition 180 II.7 Self-Evaluation of the Development and Prospects of Transition Management 199 PART III: Understanding Transitions from a Governance Perspective JOHN GRIN III.2 Contemporary Processes of Institutional Change 237 III.3 Modernization Processes in Dutch Agriculture, 1886 to the Present 249 III.4 The Governance of Transitions: An Agency Perspective 265 III.5 Modernization as Multilevel Dynamics: Lessons from Dutch Agriculture 285 III.6 Governance of Transitions: An Analytical Perspective 315 Contents vii Conclusion: How to Understand Transitions? How to Influence Them? Synthesis and Lessons for Further Research 320 JOHN GRIN, JAN ROTMANS AND JOHAN SCHOT Notes 339 References 345 About the Authors 379 Index 383 Downloaded by [93.9] at 03:01 12 March 2015 Downloaded by [93.9] at 03:01 12 March 2015 Figures I.1 Different historical time-developments.1 Multiple levels as a nested hierarchy.2 Co-evolution between multiple trajectories in a socio- technical regime.3 Topography of development trajectories.4 Multi-level perspective on transitions.1 Social system and social structures.2 Two conceptualisations of micro-macro interactions.3 A recursive, diachronic model of structural change and reproduction.4 Trajectory as field-level event chain, resulting from morphogenetic cycles.5 Basic elements and theories that underlie the multi- level perspective.1 Types of environmental change.3 Insiders and outsiders in the waste-disposal regime around 1850.4 De-alignment and re-alignment pathway.5 Technological substitution pathway.6 Tonnage of steamships and sailing ships in Britain.8 Socio-technical system in factory production.9 Percentage of sources of mechanical drive in US manufacturing establishments.1 From niche dynamics to regime shift.2 Local projects and global niche-level.3 Emerging technical trajectory carried by local projects.1 Two approaches to explaining processes.9] at 03:01 12 March 2015 II.1 Transition as a shift in structure, culture and practices.2 A typology of transitions.1 The different phases of a transition.2 Alternatives for S-shaped curve.3 Complex systems’ model based on the MLP.1 Activity clusters in transition management.1 SCENE-model Parkstad Limburg as presented on February 17, 2002.2 First (ten-step) version of the transition management cycle.1 Sketch of the energy system.2 Process design energy transition.1 The institutional rectangle of state, market, science and civil society and their mutual alignment; and its co-evolution with societal development patterns.1 Different kinds of governance activities, to be discussed in the sections indicated in the boxes.2 Internal and external structures surrounding practices according to Stones 278 III.1 An intermediary project in heterogeneous landscape.1 Relative Importance of Different Structures in Downloaded by [93.9] at 03:01 12 March 2015 Institutional Domains 43 I.1 Attributes of Change and Resulting Typology 55 I.2 Annual Car Sales in the United States 66 I.1 Policy Dilemmas for Niche Development 90 I.1 Variance and Process Approaches 93 II.1 Linking Complexity Characteristics, Theoretical Principles of Transition Management and Systemic Instruments for Transition Management 147 II.2 Linking Complexity Characteristics, Theoretical Principles of Transition Management and New Governance Concepts 154 III.1 Three Layers of Power 283 Downloaded by [93.9] at 03:01 12 March 2015 Textboxes II.1 Summary from “Synthesis Analysis Parkstad Downloaded by [93.9] at 03:01 12 March 2015 Limburg” 165 II.2 Initial Arena Selection Criteria 167 II.3 Key Elements of the Parkstad Limburg Vision “Op Hete Kolen” 171 II.1 Examples of Possible Transition Experiments 188 Downloaded by [93.9] at 03:01 12 March 2015 Foreword Carlota Perez To understand transitions and know how to influence them is imperative in today’s turbulent times of profound and wide-ranging changes. While we Downloaded by [93.9] at 03:01 12 March 2015 are learning to live in an information-intensive society, we are moving from the national to the global space and from a Cold War world to one speckled with “new wars.” The fi nancial meltdown of 2008 has questioned the free market certainties of the last few decades and has brought back to the fore the need for an active role of the state.
Civil society is fi nding innumerable ways of organizing and communicating that go far beyond the traditional political parties and increase the able participants in collective decision making. Globalization itself is also widening the decision stage, eventu- ally requiring the setting up of supra-national bodies. In the midst of these profound changes the environmental constraints that were the concern of some groups in society have now become the mainstream. Sustainability is already understood as a goal that must accompany all these transforma- tions.
We are thus in a major transition to a world with different values, a transition that cannot wait for spontaneous change to happen, but that must somehow be socially and collectively guided with a sense of urgency. The hard sciences and engineering are intensely facing the task of devel- oping alternative energies, methods for carbon capture, recycling and other technical ways of facing the environmental challenges; the social sciences must confront the task of understanding transitions and how to influence them. That is what the Dutch Knowledge Network on Systems Innovation and Transition (KSI) Project set out to do, and what they present in this book is, in my judgment, a major contribution to this end. Besides being opportune, it is academically courageous, profoundly honest and directly policy relevant.
It is academically courageous because the authors fully recognize the difficulty of the task and do not pretend to have the final answer or model or methodology; neither do they allow disciplinary boundaries to constrain their exploration of the problem. As true scientists, the authors let their work be guided by all the complexity of the problems to study, not by the artificial frontiers erected by the needs of the academic world. The results presented in this book are not only interdisciplinary, they are inter-interdisciplinary. The authors bring together the relevant theories and xvi Foreword enrich them individually and in their inter-relations.
This reality-bound approach also led them to do case-study work and action research. By par- ticipating in transition processes directly they deepened their comprehen- sion of the difficulties involved in transitions and in their management. The infi nitely rich understanding that emerges combines knowledge from history, sociology, evolutionary economics, complex systems theory, gov- ernance theories and experimental fi ndings. The authors not only pro- duce new theoretical insights but they also open vast new areas for further research and experimentation.
It is a profoundly honest research effort because it makes no attempt at self-complacent unanimity. In recognizing the complexity of the task, the KSI project dared to put together three groups of top scholars from different schools of thought to collaborate in the challenge. With profound respect Downloaded by [93.9] at 03:01 12 March 2015 for each other’s work and that of all their predecessors, they confront the questions from different angles, identify the similarities and differences and arrive at a pluralistic understanding which is more powerful and all embracing for being open. It offers no recipes, no fi nal answers, and it can welcome new perspectives.
The current text can be seen as a temporary halt on the way in order to take stock of what has been learned, connect with the user world, receive its feedback and continue the exploration. The book is policy relevant precisely because it is rooted in case stud- ies—from history and from the present—and in the direct observation of the processes involved. The questions the authors set out to answer are, on the one hand, the nature of transitions, and, on the other, the possibili- ties of influencing their course. And these two questions are strongly inter- twined in the sense that the second does not just follow the fi rst but actually influences the way the fi rst is analyzed.
The KSI team is committed to the usefulness of their research, and deeply conscious of the potential applica- tion of their work. While being theoretically rigorous, they were constantly aware of the practical implications of what they produced. I am convinced that the fi ndings that the authors present in this book are capable of having a profound impact on the many actors involved in the current transitions. Their pluralistic understanding of the complex matter at hand and their wealth of insights and methods of analysis will provide a stimulating space for social scientists, policy makers and the multiple groups of civil society to engage in further research and practical experi- mentation.