NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF HCM INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS THE HAGUE VIETNAM THE NETHERLANDS VIETNAM- THE NETHERLANDS PROJECT FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS --------()()()-------- HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS IMPACT ON RURAL TO URBAN MIGRATION THE CASE OF QUANG NGAI PROVINCE ;_ THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS BQ.GIAO DUe VA DAo TA BY TRUONG 8H K/NH TE TP.HgM DUONG DINH QUOC cI_!/- 6y5g. THU'VIEN Academic Supervisor: Dr. LE THI THANH LOAN HO CHI MINH CITY, OCTOBER 2007 UAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.co CERTIFICATION "I certify that the substance of this dissertation has not already been submitted for any degree and is not currently submitted for any other degree. I certify that to the best of my knowledge and help received in preparing this dissertation and all sources used, have been acknowledged in this dissertation." DUONG DINH QUOC UAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.co ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Fist of all, let me express my thanks all organizations and member those found Vietnam - Netherland project, all lectures and staffs of the project for useful lessons.
and latest knowledge. I would like to express my special thanks to my academic supervisor Dr. Le Thi Thanh Loan for his helpful guidance and assistance during the writing of this thesis. I also deeply thanks to Dr.
Nguyen Trang Hoai and Dr. Nguyen Hoang Bao for their valuable suggestions and advices to research this topic. Following, I send my thanks to Librarian, Ms.Chi, who helps help me in finding necessary document and reference books. Thank to my friends in Quang Ngai - the interviewers help me in collecting surveyed data in Quang Ngai province.
Many thanks sent to my classmates, who shared with me joys and obstacles during more two years attending this program. My thanks send to my wife and sons who shared and encouraged me during my. ·- learning and doing this study. UAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.co ABBREVIATIONS HCM: HoChiMinh GSO: General Statistics Office NEZ: New Economic Zone DAN: Development Analysis Network VLSS: Vietnam Living Standard Survey USD: United State Dollar (American Currency) VND: Vietnam Dong (Vietnamese Currency) UAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.co TABLE OF CONTAINS CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.5 Organization of the thesis.
3 CHAPTER 2: LITERATE REVIEW 2.1 Overview of migration typical theories .3 Push and pull factor theory .4 Harris -Todaro model .5 New Economics of Labour Migration theory .6 Comments on the theories. 12 CHAPTER 3: MIGRATION IN VIETNAM 3.1 Overview of migration historical in Vietnam .1 Migration in feudal states .2 Migration under the French colonial period .3 Migration in the war against US army .3 Migration after reunification 1975 .2 The factors speed up rural to urban migration .1 The poverty and inequity .2 Population dist!ibution and density .3 Migration data and tendency .4 Migration to HCM city .1 The Socio-economic situation of HCM city .2 Overview of migration to HCM city .3 Migrants characteristics to HCMC .5 Occupational differentials and income .1 Impacts on urban areas. 33 UAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.2 Impacts on rural areas .1 Definition of migrant .2 The objects of surveys .3 Data collection methods .4 Regression model of rural to urban migration .5 Description variables in the model. 40 CHAPTER 5: HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS IMPACT ON RURAL TO URBAN MIGRATION 5.1 The Socio-economic situation in Quang Ngai Province .3 Determinants of migration probability .3 Comment on results.
50 CHAPTER 6: CONCLUTIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 6.1 Recommendations for original authorities .2 Recommendations for urban authorities .4 Limits and suggestion for further studies. 63 UAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.co LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Annual average population growth rate of the city(%). 26 Table 2: Migration from regions to HCM city 1999-2004. 28 Table 3: Population rate in school by ages (%).
29 Table 4: Population structure by age group (%). 30 Table 5: Migrants gender index by ages. 31 Table 6: Distribution of employment of migrants in 2004 by economic sectors. 31 Table 7: Monthly average migrant income (VND) in 2004.
32 Table 8: Description variables used in the model. 43 Table 9: Household characteristics in survey. 4 7 Table 10: Regression result of unrestricted model (7 variables). 48 Table 11: Regression result of restricted model (5 variables).
49 Table 12: Influent levels of variables to household migration probability. 50 UAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.co CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION • 1.1 Problem statement: Rural to urban migration is the natural process in economic development m all countries, especially in less development countries. Migration is not a consequence of economic development progress, but the economic growth has promoted migrants from rural regions to economic centers and urbanization areas. The booming in economic growth in Vietnam for two decades has changed remarkably economic structure.
The production rate in agriculture has decreased strongly in total GDP, from 27.76% in 2004 1• In rural areas, beside traditional agricultural sector, service and industrial production have been expanded. Therefore, income rate earnings from farming fields are decreasing in total household income. However, high natural population growth rate and new jobs created slowly in rural areas have made the pressure on labor force in agriculture. Moreover, the productivity in agriculture is still low, agricultural lands are reduced due to demands of development industrial zones, urbanization and environmental pollution caused by industry.
These factors lead an increasing in working -off time and an expanding working pressure in rural areas. In this situation, migration is considered an acceptable solution for labor force in rural areas. Rural to urban migration has played a very important role m industrialization and urbanization process, migration labor force has met the large labor demand in economic development progress. The migration also decreases jobs pressure on jobs in agriculture and contributes poverty reduction by remittances to households.
On the other hand, an uncontrolled migration progress overloads the urban infrastructure, affects on the social fundamentals and may become a disadvantage factor to economic development progress in urban areas. 1 GSO 2005, available at www.vn UAN VAN CHAT LUONG download 1 : add luanvanchat@agmail.co Being a less development country, Vietnam is still in the initial stage of urbanization, given by about 70% population still lives in rural areas and. tendency of rural to urban migration will occur strongly in coming years, especially in large city such as HCM city, Ha Noi, Da Nang. The thesis also • identifies the socio- economic consequences not only to rural but also to urban areas The research is to identify the household characteristics that effect on rural to urban migration in Quang Ngai province by reviewing the different approaches to migration decision.
The study also allows us determine which are the main factors affecting on migration decision of household in rural areas.2 Research objectives The main objective of this exploratory study is to get a better understanding of rural to urban migration through out the features of households in rural. The migration process of any individual in a family are considered as an allocation the jobs amongst members of a household, therefore, in this research individual's migration is also considered a migratory household. Although many previous researches have mentioned about rural to urban migration under the other viewpoints, but almost have focused on migrants' characteristics and other socio- economic, geographic factors that affects on the migration. This research focuses on the households characteristics to migration decisions of members in the family.
Moreover, this research implicates the policy framework for rural to urban migration. Therefore, households in rural regions are main objects in the research and are central units of migration survey. More specifically, the study focuses on the following objectives: • To analyze the households characteristics in the rural areas that have influences to migration possibility, and identify what the factors have affected on migration possibility most strongly. • To understand the migrants' livelihoods in destination places and the features of migration labored force in recent years.
UAN VAN CHAT LUONG download 2 : add luanvanchat@agmail.co • To analyze public response and government policies to deal with the increasing migration flows from rural to urban areas.3 Research questions To realize our main objective mentioned in the previous paragraph, the following central question is formulated "How the household characteristics affect on rural to urban migration in Quang Ngai province?" From the central question the following sub-questions are formulated, which are addressed in the subsequent chapters in the study as follows: What are the household characteristics in original place? What are the initial conditions for rural to urban migration? What the features of household affect on migration probability? 1.4 Methodology Descriptive analysis will be use to show an overview of rural to urban migration based on secondary data analysis from Vietnam migration census 2004. _ conducted by General Statistics Office, mid-term population survey 2004 conducted by HCM city statistics department, the previous migration study in Vietnam, and data extracted from various papers, magazines, books, and many other related books. Data for regression are collected from a migration survey in three communes of Quang Ngai province with 102 observations. And a logistic model will be run to analyze variables affecting on migration decision, regression results will be used for explaining effective level by each variable.5 Organization of the thesis The thesis is organized into five chapters.
Following the chapter of introduction, the second chapter overviewed development theories, which link to migration progress and some implications exacted from these theories. Next chapter describes briefly historical development of migration in Vietnam, natural element and social context speeding up migration, this chapter also shows UAN VAN CHAT LUONG download 3 : add luanvanchat@agmail.co migrants' characteristics into HCM city in the period 1999- 2004 and impacts of migration on socio - economic environment in rural and urban areas. The fourth chapter states the methodology of study in term of scope and location, including a regression model of rural to urban migration, describing variables and method of collecting data. The answer of main question in the fifth chapter, which is considered the central part of the study, presenting the impacts of household characteristics on migration probability of household in rural region.
A logit regression model will be applied with data survey to identify the key factors affecting on migration. The final chapter mentions some appropriate solutions to the authorities concerning with migration. These solutions in order to increase the positive impacts and to reduce the negative effects from migration process, for both rural and urban areas. UAN VAN CHAT LUONG download 4 : add luanvanchat@agmail.co CHAPTER II LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Overview of typical migration theories There are many different theories referring the migration, each is built around a core model of wage or income differences in origin and destination locations as predictors of migration, but each provides different interpretations of other key variables based on it's important role in each theory.
According to Jakub Bijak (2006), most selected theories of migration can be grouped as follows: THEORIES OF MIGRATION Economic. * Interventing I * Classical * Gravity Theory * Migration system - ~ Opportunities (Lewis, 1940) (Steward, 1941) theory (Stouffer, 1940) (Zipt,1946) (Krits el al. labor migration (Stark, 1991) (Sources: "Forecasting international theories: Selected theories, models and methods"Jakub Bijak, Central European Central for Migration Research, working paper 4/2006) UAN VAN CHAT LUONG download 5 : add luanvanchat@agmail.co In fact, migration process is a phenomenon caused by economic elements essentially and social environment, other key non-economic factors play the roles as catalytic factors to impulse movement, followed by the current economics viewpoints. Therefore, some of migration theories are usually detailed describe to explain the reasons of migration.
However, the nature of migration and the causes for it are complex, and there is no general agreement among researchers on the causes of migration.