STATE BANK OF VIETNAM BANKING ACADEMY OF VIETNAM FACULTY OF FOREIGN LANGUAGE ---------- IMPACTS OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS ON CREDIT OPERATIONS OF BANKING SECTOR IN VIETNAM Student: Nguyen Thien Huong Class: ATC A – k12 Student Code: 12A7511083 Supervisor: Nguyen Thi Hong Mai (MA) ) 28th May 2013 Graduation Thesis Banking Academy DEDICATION I dedicate this graduation thesis to my family and to Banking Academy of Vietnam Nguyen Thien Huong ATC A- k12 Graduation Thesis Banking Academy ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First of all, I would like to express the profound gratitude to my supervisor MA. Nguyen Thi Hong Mai for giving me great support, encouragement and constructive feedback to accomplish the paper. I deeply appreciated all credit officers at Au Co sub-branch, Asia Commercial Bank (ACB), for assisting and instructing me with work and data collection. I would like to give my special thanks to Mr.
Thai Gia Trong, Personal Financial Consultant of ACB, for his great support and cooperation throughout my study. Finally, I wish to extend my heartiest thanks to all Banking Academy‟s lecturers, who have equipped me with sufficient knowledge, and my family, who has supported me wholeheartedly. Nguyen Thien Huong ATC A- k12 Graduation Thesis Banking Academy EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This paper studies the impacts of the global financial crisis on banking system in Vietnam, particularly on credit operations. It goes ahead to understand theoretical underpinnings relating to financial crises in general before critically analyzing the influence of the global downturn on deposit taking and credit extension of domestic commercial banks, primarily using three-year data from the SBV Annual Report from 2007 to 2009.
The theory mentions three fundamental aspects of financial crises, including definition, characteristics and their possible effects on banking system. It suggests that credit activities of banking industry are under influence of many factors in financial market, such as interest-rate policies, money supply and demand, banks‟ ability to collect debts, all of which are likely to change under crises. Particularly, the global financial crisis of 2008 proved to be a typical fiscal turmoil possessing all specific features of a financial crisis. A study of its causes and effects was conducted with an emphasis on the situation of Vietnam credit operations.
Indeed, impact assessment of domestic credit operations has shown that both deposit taking and credit extension could not be exempted from the exotic catastrophe, though it came late. The impacts became apparent in 2008 with two adverse trends of interest rate over the year. Also, the loss of public confidence and changes in credit structure together with climbing bad debts were reported as the aftermath of the world cataclysm, suggesting that banking sector in Vietnam is still in need of further improvements in credit activities. In an attempt to make Vietnamese banking system more robust, some recommendations are proposed to the banks, such as pursuing proper interest rate policies, tightening credit risk management, ameliorating the supervising activities in commercial banks, and paying more attention to credit and deposit insurance.
Nguyen Thien Huong ATC A- k12 Graduation Thesis Banking Academy LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES LIST OF TABLES Table 1: GSEs‟ subprime loan and securities purchases. 17 Table 2: Banks affected by the Global Financial Crisis 2008. 20 Table 3: Information on banking operations in quarter I/2009. 27 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: The Dow Jones industrial average on August 6, 2011.
13 Figure 2: US current account or trade deficit. 15 Figure 3: Capital mobilization from the economy. 23 Figure 4: Interest rate in 2008. 24 Figure 5: Credit growth over the period 2001-2007.
29 Figure 6: Credit growth of the banking system in 2008. 30 Figure 7: Credit growth in 2008. 31 Figure 8 Overview of the financial process. 44 Nguyen Thien Huong ATC A- k12 Graduation Thesis Banking Academy LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS Abbreviations Explanations BOP Balance of Payment Fed Federal Reserve System CDO Collateralized Debt Obligation MBS Mortgage Backed Securities ARM Adjustable Rate Mortgage CDS Credit Default Swap GSE Government-sponsored enterprise FDIC Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation CAR Capital Adequacy Ratio AIG American Insurance Group GDP Gross Domestic Product SBV The State Bank of Vietnam ACB Asia Commercial Bank Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of VCB Vietnam Agribank Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Vietinbank Trade Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and BIDV Development of Vietnam VPBank Vietnam Prosperity Joint-Stock Commercial Bank Eximbank Vietnam Export Import Commercial Joint Stock Bank USD, US$, $ The United States dollar VND Vietnam Dong pa Per annum Nguyen Thien Huong ATC A- k12 Graduation Thesis Banking Academy TABLE OF CONTENTS DEDICATION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS INTRODUCTION.
Purpose and research questions. Scope and limitations. Quantitative research method. Data collection: Secondary data.
Structure of the thesis. 3 CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK OF FINANCIAL CRISIS. Definition and characteristics of a financial crisis. Identifying a financial crisis.
Typical characteristics of a financial crisis. 5 Nguyen Thien Huong ATC A- k12 Graduation Thesis Banking Academy 1. Possible effects of a financial crisis on banking operations. 8 CHAPTER 2: GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ITS IMPACTS ON CREDIT OPERATIONS OF BANKING SECTOR IN VIETNAM.
The global financial crisis of 2007-2008. Global financial crisis: Five key stages. Genesis of the global financial crisis. Impacts of the crisis on global banking industry.
Credit operations of commercial banks in Vietnam under the influence of global financial crisis. An assessment of fund mobilization. An assessment of credit extension. 28 CHAPTER 3: SOLUTIONS TO IMPROVE CREDIT OPERATIONS OF DOMESTIC BANKING SECTOR AFTER THE CRISIS.
Trend forecast for the global financial crisis. 43 Nguyen Thien Huong ATC A- k12 Graduation Thesis Banking Academy INTRODUCTION 1. Research rationale Over the period from 2008 to 2012, the world experienced unfolding and heavy repercussions of the global financial crisis stemming from U. “subprime” turbulent in the summer of 2007.
The global financial crisis is regarded as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. It resulted in the threat of total collapse of large financial institutions, the bailout of banks by national governments, and downturns in stock markets around the world. The crisis played a significant role in the failure of key businesses, declines in consumer wealth estimated in trillions of US dollars, and a downturn in economic activity leading to the later recession and contributing to the European sovereign-debt crisis. The contagious impacts of the global financial crisis have been felt in all continents as well as most nations.
Being a small open, FDI-reliant and export-dependant economy, Vietnam has not been spared the fallout from this external shock though it came late in the end of 2008. In the financial market, Vietnamese banking system also suffered. Although this backbone sector was not severely and directly affected by the crisis, some weaknesses regarding the credit operations were revealed, which, remains a question of how to make credit activities more robust to combat future adverse impacts. This issue prompted me to conduct a research on “Impacts of the Global Financial Crisis on Credit Operations of Banking Sector in Vietnam” as my graduation thesis.
Purpose and research questions 2. Purpose This paper attempts to: Nguyen Thien Huong 1 ATC A- k12 Graduation Thesis Banking Academy Provide an insight into the global financial crisis, specifically its causes, timeline and effects on global banking system. Critically analyze the impacts of financial catastrophe on credit operations of commercial banks in Vietnam. Propose some practical recommendations for the recovery and improving the efficiency of credit operations.
Research questions How to define a financial crisis? What are possible effects of financial crises on banking system in theory? What is the global financial crisis? Why did it happen? And how was global banking industry influenced? What are the impacts of the global financial meltdown on credit operations of banking sector in Vietnam? How to enhance the efficiency of domestic credit operations to confront future shocks and crises? 3. Scope and limitations The scope of this thesis covers the following main areas: The global financial crisis of 2008 The credit operations of domestic banking sector under the crisis However, the research project focuses only on the effects of the crisis on banking system without mentioning to societal or other economic consequences. Nguyen Thien Huong 2 ATC A- k12 Graduation Thesis Banking Academy 4. Quantitative research method Quantitative method is a research method focusing on the collection and analysis of numerical data and statistics.
The thesis studies the movements of interest rate, credit growth rate, deposit outstanding, loan outstanding of Vietnam banking sector in the year 2007, 2008 and the first half of 2009, from which drawing conclusion about the aftermath. Data collection: Secondary data In this paper, the secondary data are extracted from the SBV Annual Reports 2007- 2009, SBV Monthly Report on Banking Operations and the public annual reports of some commercial banks, to name but a few, ACB, Vietcombank, BIDV, VPBank. Structure of the thesis Apart from Introduction and Conclusion, the thesis consists of three chapters: Chapter I: Theoretical Framework of Financial Crisis Chapter II: Global Financial Crisis and Its Impacts on Credit Operations of Banking Sector in Vietnam Chapter III: Solutions to Improving Credit Operations of Domestic Banking Sector Nguyen Thien Huong 3 ATC A- k12 Graduation Thesis Banking Academy CHAPTER 1 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK OF FINANCIAL CRISIS 1. Definition and characteristics of a financial crisis 1.
Identifying a financial crisis It is necessary to define what a financial crisis is before studying its impacts. Unfortunately, there is no universally agreed definition. A large body of work has been devoted to the identification and dating of crises, but ambiguities remain. At first, financial crisis was thought to be caused by budget deficit, resulting in the demand for issuing more money to finance the imbalance.
Governments abandoned the fixed exchange rate regime, and national foreign currency reserves fell below acceptable level. Obstfeld (1994) assured that the financial crisis in general stemmed from the conflict between the fixed exchange rate regime and the government‟s wants to pursue expansionary monetary policy. According to Hyman Minsky (1919-1996), a financial crisis is a result of the failure of one or more than one economic factors which fail to fulfill their financial duties. For instance, banks cannot repay their depositors; borrowers cannot repay banks‟ loans.
The roots of the unfulfilled payment duties are problems in liquidity and solvency, or intentional capital occupancy. The insolvency may originate from bankruptcies, business losses, or problems in government spending. Like an infectious disease, it can exercise influence over the economy as a whole. Mishkin (2000) argued that financial instability might lead to a financial crisis when financial system faced the asymmetric information probably responsible for moral hazard and adverse selection.
In this case, banking system might be unable to perform its inherent function as distribution channel for financial sources. Nguyen Thien Huong 4 ATC A- k12 Graduation Thesis Banking Academy Other economists subscribe to the idea that there is a correlation between the attempt to liberalize financial market and the number of financial crises. Whether or not fiscal liberalization necessarily triggers financial crisis has inherently been a question of much controversy. Thus, what exactly is a financial crisis? To choose the most proper definition among those, first it is advisory to have fundamental knowledge about some relevant notions below: Finance: Branch of economics, a science that studies the management of funds (money and other assets).
Financial market: Any marketplace where buyers and sellers participate in the trade of assets such as equities, bonds, currencies and derivatives. One of the main functions of financial markets is to allocate capital. Capital markets especially facilitate the raising of capital while money markets facilitate the transfer of liquidity, in both cases matching those who have capital to those who need it.