BANKING ACADEMY BANKING FACULTY – ADVANCED PROGRAM GRADUATION THESIS Topic: The Determinants of Commercial Banks Performance in Viet Nam Student : Tran Thi Thao Class : K20 CLCB Course : 2017 - 2021 Student ID : 20A4010550 Advisor : Ph.D Nguyen Hong Yen Hanoi, May 2021 17014129086281000000 DECLERATION I hereby declare that the graduation thesis with the topic “The determinants of commercial banks performance in Vietnam" is my research work, with the support of my supervisor Ph.D Nguyen Hong Yen. The data and results in the thesis are honest and have never been published in any other works. I will be responsible for the content I have presented in this thesis. Hanoi, May, 19th, 2021 Student Tran Thi Thao i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First of all, I would like to sincerely lectures and tutors in Banking Academy, Faculty of Banking advanced program who has dedicated teaching and impart knowledge, valuable experience during my school years.
I would like to express special grateful to Ph.D Nguyen Hong Yen, for her valuable guidance, encouragement, correction and detailed comments from the preparation to the completion of this study. Last but not least, my thanks are given to my family and friends for all their encouragement and intellectual supported that has made this report possible Hanoi, May, 19th, 2021 Tran Thi Thao ii TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLERATION. LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES. The relevance of the topic.
Research problem and objectives. Structure of the study. 11 CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL BASIS OF BANK PERFORMANCE. Overview of commercial banks.
Commercial bank and the role of commercial banks in the economy. Basic operations of commercial banks. The determinants of commercial bank performance. The efficiency and nature of the performance of commercial banks.
Factors affecting the performance of commercial banks. Methods of evaluating the performance of commercial banks. 25 CHAPTER 2: THE CURRENT STATUS OF THE VIETNAMESE BANKING SYSTEM. An overview of the development of the Vietnam commercial bank system.
The current status of operational efficiency of the system of Vietnam's commercial banks in the period 2010-2020.The industry average of the ROE and ROA. Credit growth and economic growth in Vietnam. 34 CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODS. Object range, timing and data collections.
Research model building. Determine the variables of the model. Descriptive statistics of the variables in the model. Regression method used.
Check for defects in the model. Autocorrelation Phenomenon Test. 49 CHAPTER 4: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION. Discuss research results.
Equity Ratio - ETA. Funding Efficiency-DTA. Loan to Assets -LTA. Non-performing Loan - NPL.
Operating Costs - CI. Bank Size - SIZE. Economic Growth - GDP. 58 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS.
Trends in the banking industry 2021-2030. For State Bank and Government. For Commercial Banks. Limitations of topic.
Suggestions for next research. 72 iv ABBREVIATION Abbreviation Completed scripts NPLs Non-performing loans ratio OLS Ordinary Least Square FEM Fixed Effects Mode REM Random Effects Mode GDP Gross Domestic Product GLS Generalized Least Squares DEA data envelope analysis method FDH Hull Free Factor TFA Thick Frontier Approach DFA Distribution Free Approach CBs Commerial Banks SBV State Bank Vietnam SGB Saigon Bank For Industry And Trade. BVB Viet Capital Commercial Joint Stock Bank. NAB Nam A comercial Join Stock Bank PGB Petrolimex Group Commercial Joint Stock Bank ABB An Binh Commercial Joint Stock Bank LPB LienViet Post Joint Stock Commercial Bank VIB Vietnam International Commercial Joint Stock Bank MSB Vietnam Maritime Commercial Join Stock Bank ACB Asia Commercial Bank SHB Saigon Hanoi Commercial Joint Stock Bank OCB Orient Commercial Joint Stock Bank HOSE Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange v LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Chart &Table Caption Page Chart 2.1 Non-performing loan ratio from 2010 to 2019 32 The Average ROA and ROE ratio of CBs from 2010 Chart 2.3 The GDP and Credit growth from 2010 to 2019 34 Table 3.1 Calculation and expected sign of variables 43 Table 3.2 Variance inflation factor-VIF 44 Table 3.3 Descriptive statistics of the variables 44 Table 3.
Selection test for model 1 (ROA) 47 Table 3.5 Selection test for model 2 (ROE) 47 Table 3.6 Wooldridge test for Autocorrelation Phenomenon Test 49 Table 4.1 Research results 51 Summary of model results and comparison with model Table 4.2 52 1 expectations Summary of model results and comparison with model Table 4.3 53 2 expectations vi INTRODUCTION 1. The relevance of the topic Commercial banks are an important intermediary financial institution in the market economy, shifting capital from the surplus to the underdog (Perter S. Commercial banks play an important role in linking the savings and investment sectors of the economy. Not only that, but commercial banks also have an important and positive role in the economic development of a country.
If the banking system is operating effectively and disciplined, it brings about the rapid growth in different sectors of the economy. According to Mat-Nor et al. (2006), efficiency is one of many factors affecting changes in the economy. With the trend of globalization of the world economy, today's Vietnamese commercial banks are being fiercely competed by non-bank financial intermediaries and foreign banks.
Banks that cannot compete will be eliminated and replaced by more efficient banks. In the study of bank failure prediction, Barr, Seifor & Siems (1994) stated that operating efficiency is always the factor affecting the failure of a bank. Thus, operational efficiency becomes a core criterion for assessing the existence of a bank in an increasingly fiercely competitive international environment. Improving operational efficiency is a vital issue for commercial banks.
A lot of research both at home and abroad has been carried out to study the factors that affect the performance of banks. To measure the economic efficiency of a unit or firm, Farrel (1957) was the first to use the DEA method. Charnes, Cooper, and Rhodes (1978) and later researchers have based on Farrel's research to continue researching and developing this method. With the selection of input and output variables, the DEA method is fairly popular and is used by many authors to measure banks' performance (Grigorian and Manole, 2002) the specific characteristics of the banking industry that the output factors and the inputs have a multidimensional impact, so the correlation of the research variables will give results that reflect the reality and help the reader take a comprehensive view to evaluate the performance of commercial banks.
However, the selection of input and output variables for each study is different due to the specificity of the banking industry. 1 Thus, for Vietnamese banking system, research on factors affecting operational efficiency is extremely necessary. It is the basis for bank managers to find out, consider, find the cause and come up with suitable policies to improve the operational efficiency of their banks. Therefore, the topic " The determinants of commercial banks performance in Vietnam " is given to meet the current urgent needs.
Literature review As mentioned in the urgency of topic, banking is essentially a business for profit. However, to measure factors such as how much output, how technology changes, or how productivity growth is difficult questions for the following three reasons: (1) Inequality about what services banks provide and how to measure them. (2) Banking services are often not publicly priced but rather through market interest rates below the deposit balance, making the observed revenue stream inaccurate to select the critical outputs to include product. (3) Banking is a tightly regulated industry in which significant inefficiencies have been shown to exist.
As a result, the technical innovations that increase the productivity of the most efficient banks may not be well reflected across the industry. The purpose of the article is to synthesize methods and apply methods to measure the performance of commercial banks in Vietnam in the period 2010-2020. Accordingly, efficiency and efficiency measurement are gradually becoming popular and used for many different types of organizations. Banks are the object of interest to many authors to research efficiency.
There are currently two widely used efficiency measurement approaches: structured and nonstructural approaches (Hughes & Mester (2008). In a nonstructural approach, researchers will use indicators like ROE (return on equity), ROA (return on assets), C/I (cost ratio). However, this method has two major disadvantages: Firstly, it is impossible to assess the market value of assets, the level of risk; Second, the method is only suitable when the bank uses one input or produces a single output. 2 As for the structural approach, researchers will rely on the cost, revenue, and/or profit functions to analyze banking efficiency.
Up to now, most studies have only used this method to measure banking efficiency because of its optimization, ease of comparison, and suitability for banks. Accordingly, the non-restructuring approach includes two main approaches: Firstly, parametric approach with three main methods: (i) Stochastic Frontier Approach (SFA); (ii) TFA analysis method (Thick Frontier Approach); (iii) and DFA (Distribution Free Approach) analysis. Secondly, the non-parametric approach with two main methods: (i) data envelope analysis method (DEA); (ii) and the Hull Free Factor (FDH) method. The DEA analysis method is one of the methods used by domestic and foreign authors in many studies.
Farrell Farrell (1957) can be considered the father of this approach when given a measure of technical efficiency to reflect a bank's ability to achieve maximum output from a given set of inputs. Following that, Charnes et al. Rhodes (1978) based on Farrell's suggestion to develop into a DEA model, the idea is to apply the Production Possibility Frontier (PPF) as a criterion for efficiency evaluation. DEA method was then developed in many different models and widely applied as Banker, Charnes, and Cooper (1984), Berger et al.
(1987) examining economies of scale. Of 413 branches of State Bank Viet Nam (SBV) and 241 state- owned commercial banks, Fukuyama (1993) studied the scale efficiency of 143 commercial banks in Japan, Zaim (1995) used the DEA method to evaluate the effectiveness of commercial banks before and after the self Kasman (2002) focuses on research on cost efficiency, economies of scale and technological advancement of the Turkish banking system. 3 Chen and Yeh (1998) examined the efficiency of 33 banks in Taiwan. Applying the DEA methodology, they used variables such as loan services, portfolios, Interest income, and non-interest income as the output of banks in Taiwan.
While, the number of employees was recruitment, bank assets, number of bank branches, operating costs, and deposits used as input variables in their studies of Taiwan banks. Burki and Niazi (2003) research to evaluate cost-effectiveness, scale efficiency, and technological advancement for banks in Pakistan. Through the analysis of the impact of the reform policy on the performance of individual banks in the period 1991 - 2000. The author divides banks into three categories: SBV, private bank, and water bank.
The author measures performance by cost-efficiency ratios of banks then uses DEA and separate methods to determine the impact of each factor on cost-effectiveness in resource allocation carefully scale and efficiency. The study addresses three questions: does privatization lead to increased efficiency? How does liberalization policy affect the performance of banks through ownership? Do individual bank regulations govern the effectiveness of the bank? In the first step of this study, the author builds efficiency measures for banks; then, I use the fixed effects model 22 on tabular data to regress efficiency against policy variables on the interest rate. The study results show that banks' policies lead to a significant decline in banking performance. The author hypothesizes that in an unfavorable domestic macroeconomic environment, the policy reform of each bank will not yield better results.
Delis and Papanikolaou (2009) also used the DEA model to study the impact of bank size, equity, risk management, the total investment on GDP, short-term interest rates. Efficiency in banking operations in Europe.