THAI NGUYEN UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY TRAN THI LANH ASSESSING CROPPING MODELS ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN KY PHU COMMUNE, DAI TU DISTRICT, THAI NGUYEN PROVINCE BACHELOR THESIS Study Mode : Full-time Major : Environmental Science And Management Faculty : International Training and Development Center Batch : 2012 - 2016 Thai Nguyen, September 2016 Thai Nguyen University of Agriculture and Forestry Degree Program Bachelor of Environmental Science and Management Student name Tran Thi Lanh Student ID DTN1253180080 Thesis Title Assessing cropping models adapting to climate change in Ky Phu commune – Dai Tu district – Thai Nguyen province Supervisor (s) Assoc. Tran Van Dien Abstract: A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. There are a wide range of agricultural-based practices and technologies that have the potential to increase food production and the adaptive capacity of the food production system, as well as reduce emissions or enhance carbon storage in agricultural soils and biomass. The research purpose is an assessment of the economic, social and environmental efficiencies of cropping models in context of climate change in Ky Phu commune, Dai Tu district.
As the results, Spring rice – winter rice – potato, Summer peanut – winter peanut, Red sugarcane – summer peanut shown the best result among three dimensions as economic efficiency (3.64 times capital efficiency, respectively), social efficiency (130.65 thousands VND in working day value, respectively) and environmental efficiency (can adapt well with its standard i criteria such as suitable capacity between crop systems and soil, fertilizer supply, pesticide and herbicide dosage). These crop systems are suitable to adapt with changing in climate in this study area and could be developing in the future. Keywords: climate change, cropping systems, climate-smart agricultural (CSA), adapt to, Ky Phu Number of Pages: 50 Date of Submission: 15/09/2016 Supervisor’s signature ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This thesis has been greatly conducted from the support as well as assistance of many people whom I would sincerely like to give deep thanks and acknowledgements here. To achieve results like today, I would like to express sincere gratitude to School Leadership and teachers at Training and Development International Center - Thai Nguyen University of Agriculture and Forestry imparted for me the knowledge as well as facilitating learning and help me during the learning process in schools.
In particular we would like to express deep gratitude to Assoc. Tran Van Dien - who has oriented research, guidance, help and create the best conditions for me to complete this research. I would like to sincerely thanks Dr. Ho Ngoc Son and official staffs of Agriculture & Forestry Research and Development Center for Mountainous Region for providing me very useful documents and knowledge about climate change; the uncle, aunt, brother, sister officer of Ky Phu commune, Dai Tu district, Thai Nguyen province has wholeheartedly devoted induct guide and help us throughout the process as a subject in the commune.
I would great fully like to thank Dr. Arinafril of Sriwijaya University, Indralaya, Indonesia for his support of my research and immense knowledge. His guidance helped me in all the time when I writing this thesis. I would like to sincerely thank! Thai Nguyen, September 2016 Tran Thi Lanh iii TABLE OF CONTENTS PART I.
What is cropping models?. What is climate change?. Climate change impacts. Sustainable crop production intensification.
Components of Sustainability Measurement. The natural conditions and socioeconomic in research area. Economic – social characteristics. Status of land use in agricultural production in Ky Phu commune.
The impact of climate change on agricultural production. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Location of research. Questionnaires and Interview methods.
Secondary data collection method. Statistical methods and effective evaluations. Current cropping models in Ky Phu commune-Dai Tu district-Thai Nguyen province. Assessing efficiency of cropping models in context of climate change in Ky Phu commune-Dai Tu district-Thai Nguyen province.
Assessing the economic efficiency. Assessing social efficiency. Assessing the environmental efficiency. Selecting cropping models adapting to climate change based on the evaluation criteria of economic, social and environmental efficiency.
CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTION .49 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Proposed agricultural indicators for measuring sustainability (Zhen and Routray 2003) .14 Figure 2: The location of Ky Phu commune (Google map) .15 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Climate change impacts on crop production. Basic information of Ky Phu. Current agricultural land use in Ky Phu commune 2015.
The impact of climate change on agricultural production in Ky Phu commune. Current cropping models in Ky Phu commune, Dai Tu district, Thai Nguyen province in 2015. The economic efficiency of common crops in Ky Phu commune (calculated in 1 ha). Economic efficiency of cropping models (calculated in 1 ha).
The threshold of economic efficiency for different agricultural productions. The levels of economic efficiency for different agricultural productions. The social efficiency for different agricultural productions(per ha). The threshold of social efficiency for different agricultural productions.
The levels of social efficiency for different agricultural productions. Comparing between the level fertilizer usage and dose recommendation. The amount of pesticide usage in reality and recommendation. The thresholds to assess the level of environmental efficiency of diffirent types of agricultural production.
Assessment the level of environmental efficiency of different types of agricultural production. Assessment the levels of economic, social and environmental efficiency for different types of agricultural production in Ky Phu. 40 vii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS FAO The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RS – SP Red sugarcane – Summer peanut SR-WR-H Spring rice – Winter rice – Haricot SR-WR-WC Spring rice – Winter rice – Winter corn SP – WP Summer peanut – Winter peanut SR-WR Spring rice – Winter rice SR-WR-P Spring rice – Winter rice – Potato viii PART I. Research rationale From now up to 2050, the world’s population is going to increase by one- third.
Most of these additional 2 billion people will live in developing countries. The more people will be living in cities, the less agricultural land could be using (FAO, 2009). If current income and consumption growth trends continue, FAO (2011) estimated that agricultural production will have to increase by 60 percent by 2050 to satisfy the expected demands for food and feed. Improving smallholder agricultural systems is a key response to solve this problem (Wheeler & Braun, 2013).
Because strengthening agricultural production systems is a fundamental means of improving incomes and food security for the largest group of food insecure in the world (World Development Report, 2007; Ravallion & Chen, 2007). As the key economic sector of most low income developing countries, improving the resilience of agricultural systems is essential for climate change adaptation (Conant, 2009; Parry et al., 2007; Adger et al. At the same time, nearly all researchers conclude that, though average global crop production may not change dramatically by 2050, certain regions may still see average production drop and many more are likely to face increased climate variability and extreme weather shocks even in the near term (IPCC 2001 & 2007; Mccarthy et al. With respect to those areas that currently suffer from a high degree of food insecurity.
Lobell et al. (2009) studied the potential crop impacts in 12 food insecure regions of the world and 1 found that climate change could significantly impact agricultural production and food security up to 2030 particularly for Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia due to both changes in mean temperatures and rainfall as well as increased variability associated with both. Changes in pest and disease patterns could also significantly impact agricultural production (Lobell, 2009). In particular, parts of South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to be hardest hit, with decreases in agricultural productivity between 15-35 percent (Stern, 2006; Cline, 2007; Fisher, et al.
And, these are precisely the same regions that already exhibit high vulnerability to weather shocks, meaning that increasing the adaptive capacity of agricultural systems of these regions is required not only to meet Millenium Development Goals in the near future, but also to ensure that such gains are not lost where negative climate change impacts increase in the future. Key gaps in knowledge on the tradeoffs and synergies between food security, adaptation and mitigation that are generated by various transformation pathways for smallholder agriculture and the potential impacts of policies on achieving these three objectives need to be addressed. However, climate change will make this task more difficult under a business-as-usual scenario, due to adverse impacts on agriculture, requiring spiraling adaptation and related costs (FAO, 2010). Climate change is already having an impact on agriculture and food security as a result of increased prevalence of extreme events and increased unpredictability of weather patterns.
This can lead to reductions in production and lower incomes in vulnerable areas (FAO, 2010). These changes can also affect global food prices. Developing 2 countries and smallholder farmers and pastoralists in particular are being especially hard hit by these changes. Many of these small-scale producers are already coping with a degraded natural resource base.
They often lack knowledge about potential options for adapting their production systems and have limited assets and risk-taking capacity to access and use technologies and financial services. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and under nutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a “climate-smart food system” that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.
Thai Nguyen province located in the mountainous of Vietnam has been implementing various development projects related to poverty reduction, preservation of natural resources and minimize the negative impact of variable climate change by non-governmental organization. In recent years, Thai Nguyen is one of the province has largest damaged in agricultural production due to the emergence of the phenomenon of extreme climatic weather. Ky Phu is one of 19 communes in Dai Tu district, the living condition is more difficult, people live mainly from agriculture and therefore the impact of climate change is enormous for the people. Agriculture faces many future challenges, including how potential changes in climate may alter the productivity of farming systems across not only in Ky 3 Phu commune but also all over the world.
To achieve food security and agricultural development goals, adaptation to climate change and lower emission intensities per output will be necessary. This transformation must be accomplished without depletion of the natural resource. This thesis has looked not only at changing climate, but also broader issues of agricultural sustainability, population growth, and technological innovation. The main results of this report are based on the body of work that considers climate change in isolation from other changes.
In order to assess the cropping systems for finding the best cropping model which can adapt to climate change in Ky Phu commune - Dai Tu district - Thai Nguyen province and provides a comprehensive the impact, we conducted the research:“Assessing cropping models adapting to climate change in Ky Phu commune – Dai Tu district – Thai Nguyen province”. Identified the current cropping models in Ky Phu commune - Dai Tu district - Thai Nguyen province. Assessed the efficiency of cropping models in term of economic, society and environment in context of climate change. Provided the recommendations to improve the efficiency of cropping models adapting the climate change.
Data collection to be honest, accurate that must be delivered in order to achieve the project objectives. Choosing model is feasible and appropriate to local conditions and circumstances.