BANKING ACADEMY ADVANCED PROGRAM THESIS OF GRADUATION THE IMPACT OF DIVERSIFICATION OF INCOME SOURCES ON PROFITABILITY AT VIETNAMESE COMMERCIAL BANKS Student name: Pham Minh Quoc Class: K22CLCA Faculty: Banking Student Code: 22A4011446 Supervisor: Ph.D Tran Manh Ha Hanoi, 2023 ASSUARANCE I declare that this is my own research. The information relating to the data here which I used in my thesis is true and collected by myself. The information and arguments belong to other authors which is not my own ideas or aggregated results and fully quoted in the references. I take full responsibility if there is any fraud in this research topic.
Hanoi, May, 23rd, 2023 Student Pham Minh Quoc ACKNOWLEDGEMENT During the time of researching and writing this thesis, I have received a lot of encouragement and enthusiastic help from agencies, organization, individuals and my family. They have always encouraged, facilitated, and support me throughout the process of doing graduate thesis. First of all, I would like to express my sincere thanks to Board of Directors of and the teachers of Banking Academy for giving me the opportunity tu study at university and provide solid of knowledge of expertise throughout the studying years. Secondly, I would like to express my deep gratitude to my supervisor Dr.
Tran Manh Ha has been very enthusiastic in guiding and supporting me doing the process of doing this graduation thesis. Graduation thesis was done in nearly 2 months. This is my first time doing this thesis, so this research has many limitations. Therefore, it is inevitable that there will be shortcomings, I lookforward to receiving your valuable comments so that I can improve my work and gain more knowledge in this field.
Thank you sincerely! Hanoi, May, 23rd, 2023 Student Pham Minh Quoc LIST OF TABLES Figure 1: Average ROEA of Vietnam's commercial banking system. 18 Figure 2: ROE of commercial banks in Vietnam. 20 Figure 3: HHI of income sources of Vietnam commercial banks during 2015 - 2022. 21 Figure 4: Descriptive statistics for the whole sample period 2015-2022.
29 Figure 5: Pearson's pairwise correlation matrix. 30 Figure 6: Variance inflation factor (VIF). 31 Figure 7: Regression results. 32 Figure 8: Variable variance test result.
34 Figure 9: Test results of autocorrelation phenomenon. 35 Figure 10: GMM model regression result. 36 TABLE OF CONTENTS ASSUARANCE. iii LIST OF TABLES.
iv TABLE OF CONTENTS. Scope of the study. Practical implications of research. 7 Chapter I: Research Background of diversifying income sources of Vietnamese commercial banks.
Introduction to commercial banking activities. Definition and functions of commercial banks. Main business activities of commercial banks. Sources of income of commercial banks.
Non-interest income. Profitability of commercial banks. 14 Chapter II: Current situation of diversifying income sources at Vietnamese commercial banks. Profitability and diversification of income sources at Vietnamese commercial banks in the period of 2015 to 2022.
Diversification of income sources. Assessing the impact of diversification of income sources on profitability at Vietnamese commercial banks. Databases and data processing. Variables in the research model.
23 Chapter III: Research results. Descriptive statistics of research data. Pearson's pairwise correlation matrix. Variance inflation factor (VIF).
Model regression results. Test for heteroscedasticity. Testing the phenomenon of autocorrelation. Fix the model.
Analysis of model results. 36 Summarize chapter III. 40 Chapter IV: Recommendation for Vietnamese commercial banks diversification in income sources. 41 Summarization of chapter IV.
46 INTRODUCTION The operation of Vietnamese commercial banks in the period of 2015-2022 with great competition in the field of net interest income has helped banks' products and services no longer be encapsulated in capital mobilization and then credit to enjoy pure interest income. Income from typical non-interest segments such as insurance, asset management, securities trading, foreign exchange trading,. is increasingly occupying a significant part of the income structure of Vietnamese commercial banks. According to the scheme on restructuring the system of credit institutions according to Decision No.
986/QD-TTg in 2018 on the development strategy of the banking industry, Clause 6b, Section I, Article 1 and Clause 7a, Section I, Article 1 set out the strategy for the banking industry from 2018 to 2025, it is necessary to promote product diversification, banking services. Thus, the strategy of Vietnam's banking industry in the coming time aims to diversify revenue sources, especially raising the proportion of non-interest income to total operating income (Le Thanh Tam, 2022). The reason for this trend first comes from the risk from traditional credit activities when banks are always the passive party when granting credit to customers. By diversifying income sources by thoroughly utilizing the technical facilities and staff of each bank, it will help maximize profits (Huynh Thi Huong Thao, 2020).
However, according to M.Mostak Ahamed (2017), when commercial banks shift their income structure to reduce the proportion of traditional lending income in the TOI structure, it will cause fierce competition among banks, which can make diversification of income sources a burden for low-competitive banks. Also according to M.Mostak Ahamed (2017), when banks have low asset quality, meaning that lending is not really effective compared to the whole industry, diversification of income sources will be implemented to reduce fluctuations of business results. Meanwhile, banks with higher asset quality and better lending efficiency will not see the effect of diversifying income sources and may consider diversification as an unnecessary expense when upgrading 1 facilities as well as training and recruiting personnel to serve other countries. According to the web portal of the Institute of Financial Strategy and Policy, the Covid-19 pandemic has helped retail banking activities appear different development trends than before.
That is, banks focus on developing the retail segment based on digital technology application, along with accelerating the digital transformation process, focusing on meeting the needs and experiences for customers in the direction of enhancing personalization and diversifying customer choices. Mobile banking products and services and online banking are increasingly developing with many new, convenient, fast and increasingly user-friendly utilities for customers. Thus, the COVID-19 epidemic can be considered as a very important period for each bank to find a foothold in diversifying income sources when customers have formed the habit of using the bank's services through this time. Based on the above-mentioned issues, based on the situation of banks in the period from 2015-2022 along with what was learned during the internship at the Headquarters of Prosperity Commercial Joint Stock Bank, the author chose the topic "The impact of diversification of income sources on probability at Vietnamese commercial banks" to add a research paper with quantitative methods thereby finding out how diversification of income sources will affect income efficiency for Vietnam's banking industry in the period of 2015-2022.
From finding out that impact, the research paper will make conclusions as well as suggest orientations to influence the process of diversifying income sources in Vietnam's banking industry. International research To study and assess the factors that influenced the profitability of banks in Spain between 1999 and 2009, Antonio Trujillo-Ponce used data from banks in Spain with a total of 697 samples. By using the Generalized Method of Moments Estimation with a regression model where the dependent variables are ROA and ROE. The independent variables selected by the author include: Loan/Total Assets (%) ; Non-performing Loans/Gross Loans; Loans Loss Provisions/Net Loans; Equity/Total Assets(%); Customer Deposits/Total Liabilities(%); Annual Customers Deposit growth rate(%); Cost to Income Ratio(%); Total Assets,logarithm; Revenue Diversification, measured as a Herfindahl–Hirschman index; Industry Concentration, measured as a Herfindahl– Hirschman index; Annual real GDP growth rate; CPI annual inflation rate; Interest rate on the MRO of the ECB.
The conclusions of the study indicate that banks with better asset quality and larger capitalization will have a positive impact on ROA, however, an increase in the ratio of equity to total assets negatively impacts ROE. The model also showed that during the study period, diversification of income sources did not seem to affect the ROE and ROA of the Spanish banking system. In addition, the author also points out that there is a difference between commercial banks and savings banks here as commercial banks tend to have better profitability but are subject to more income risk. For the purpose of investigating whether shifting to non-interest income sources improves the profitability of Indian banks, M.
Mostak Ahamed et al. (2017) studied 107 banks that accounted for 95% of India's total banking assets between 1998 and 2014. The study also used a regression model where the dependent variable is ROA, independent variables include indicators of asset quality, and the Herfindahl-Hirschman- index to show the degree of diversification of income sources in the bank. The regression results of the study show that the profitability of banks here will improve with 3 diversification.
In addition, the study also shows that diversification of income sources has a more positive impact on banks with low asset quality. Having the same Generalized Method of Moments Estimation with the independent variable ROA and ROE as well as having the Herfindahl-Hirschman-index in the list of independent variables, Ali Osman GÜRBÜZ et al. used data from 26 banks in Turkey between 2005 and 2011 to study the relationship between non-interest income generation activities and banks' performance row here. The conclusion of the study shows that income diversification has the effect of sharply increasing the operating efficiency of banks but leads to increased risk.
In addition, the authors also believe that the research phase is not the peak period of diversification of the Turkish banking system. Domestic research With the use of the Feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) method, Dr. Thuy Ha has studied the impact of diversification on the business risks of Vietnam's commercial banking system. The study assesses the impact of income diversification on business risks of Vietnamese commercial banks with sample data of 25 commercial banks in the period 2010-2020.
The quantitative analysis technique used is the simple logistic regression equation. The model results show that income diversification has an adverse effect on banks' business risks. In addition, the model results also show that there are two groups of impact factors, factors that affect opposite to risks such as: Liquidity risk, deposits to total assets, economic growth calculated by GDP, inflation and factors affecting the same direction as risks such as: bank size, loan-to-total asset ratio. However, the authors of this study have not yet made a detailed assessment of the impact of diversification on the bank's business performance.
4 The study by Nguyen Dang Thao Huyen (2022) is the research closest to the author's topic of choice when focusing on assessing the impact of diversification on the profitability of Vietnamese commercial goods. The study used samples of 32 Vietnamese commercial banks with quantitative research methods between 2011 and 2018 to analyze the impact of income diversification on the profitability of Vietnamese commercial banks. The author uses the GMM estimation method to read the results because of the advantages of overcoming self-correlation, variance of change error and endogenous phenomena in the model. Quantitative results measuring profitability by variable ROAA or ROAE show that diversification of bank income affects bank profits in the same direction and is statistically significant.
Based on the results, it can be affirmed that when commercial banks increase income diversification, it will help banks achieve more profits. Thereby helping bank administrators have more basis to reduce dependence on interest income sources and increase non-interest income. Research objectives The main purpose of the paper is to address two main issues including: First, assessing whether in Vietnam, diversification of income sources really affects the profitability of the commercial banking system. If so, it is necessary to study in which direction the impact is and compared to other factors, the effect is larger or smaller in the period 2015-2022.