MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAM BANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY BACHELOR THESIS Major: Financial – Banking Number : 7340201 Topic: APPLICATION OF FAMA FINANCIAL MODEL TO INDUSTRIAL CORPORATIONS IN VIETNAM Student’s name : Dương Đại Phát Student’s ID : 030631152010 Guiding teacher : Msc Nguy n Minh Nh t HCMC, February 2021 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAM BANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY BACHELOR THESIS Major: Financial – Banking Number : 52340201 Topic: APPLICATION OF FAMA FINANCIAL MODEL TO INDUSTRIAL CORPORATIONS IN VIETNAM Student’s name : Dương Đại Phát Student’s ID : 030631152010 Guiding teacher : Msc Nguy n Minh Nh t HCMC, February 2021 ABSTRACT The study concentrates on one of the primary advantage pricing models which offer a selection of selections for investors enthusiastic about evaluating returns. From 2014 to 2019, the writer selects the Fama Five-factor French style and uses every aspect to calculate hundred listed manufacturing businesses in Vietnam. To be able to make sure that the regression test is wholly explicable, the writer additionally determines Gibbons et al. (1989) GRS F assay if all of the sorted portfolios will likely show beneficial results in the study.
The results show that the factor MRP (market component) is actually a significant professional in all the portfolios and that SMBs play a good role than many other threes. The time series average return of these companies could be defined by Fama French Five-factor variables which don't generate pricing errors. Keywords: Fama French five-factor, asset pricing model; market capitalization; book- to-market equity; profitability; investment; trading businesses DECLARATION OF AUTHENTICITY I affirm that I wrote this and have provided credit for each quote. I certify that I have completed all processes and methods faithfully and honestly.
I mentioned to all of the people who contributed significantly to this effort. I would like to report that all representations and material found here are valid, right and authentic. Ho Chi Minh City, February 2021 ACKNOWLEGEMENTS First of all, I'd like to express my appreciation to Mr. Nguyen Minh Nhat for providing me with helpful advice and motivation during this project.
Secondly, I would like to thank my family and friends who have been there every step of the way during my four years in Banking University. Lastly, best wishes to my lecturers and BUH for their knowledge, encouragement, and understanding. COMMENTS FROM GUILDING TEACHER .2021 Signature of guiding teacher Table of Contents CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION .1 Reason to research .4 Research subject and range. 11 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW AND PREVIOUS RESEARCHES .1 Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT).2 The Fama French three-factor model .3 Carhart four factor model .4 The Fama French five factor model .2 Previous researches from developed countries .3 Previous researches in developing countries.4 Previous research in Vietnam.
23 CHAPTER 3: DATA AND METHODOLOGY .1 Data construction and processing method .4 Testing methods and Hypotheses of research. 32 CHAPTER 4: EMPERICAL RESULTS .4 About the result. 40 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS .1 Reason to research The financial exchange and the banking sector are critical aspects of the national economy. Early years, clearly for all investors (institutional or individual), the key aim is to get the best possible return from investments.
Choosing stocks for your portfolio are close to gambling. Knowing the statesman will definitely have a chance to find the side which will benefit a certain match. A business share price can change regularly to match its actual market valuation, resulting in higher profit margins and thorough examination of pricing fluctuations, risk, past success and unpredictable future. Investors like to consider whether or not their investments are successful before buying.
Understanding of different fundamental forces is the key option to make successful investment, the same with the skilled bettor that the football game requires to be understood which influences can carry the outcome. During over one hundred years of study, researchers have identified many pricing models. Studies started in the mid-1960s and went on as part of the global economy, usually including the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) from Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965) and Mossin (1968). In this model, only beta (market risk factor) is used to calculate the anticipated return of the stock.
There is a considerable denial regarding the reliability of CAPM theory. According to Basu (1977), he noticed that all the above alternative interpretations fail absolutely in the Indian sense. As a result, Rolf W. Banz (1981) found that the CAPM was misspecified and that others have accepted that the calculation is inadequate for NYSE stocks.
After that, Fama and French conducted observational research that investigated the relationship between income and stocks, company scale, B/M ratios and beta. Finally, the French three-factor model was released. This model was later replaced the CAPM model after 30 years of use. The three-factor model was, by all accounts, a popular model for forecasting business demand in the 1980s and in the future.
The Fama-French three-factor model was checked for its usage in the global capital markets in Australia, Canada, Germany, France, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. Price and scale play a part in both sectors. In 1997, Mark Carhart substituted the three-factor model with a revised four-factor model that used a momentum factor to measure the monthly valuation of an asset. The Carhart model is also used as an example to evaluate and administer mutual funds.
Analysis has shown that the complementarity effect can affect returns for the plurality, but not everyone. Novy-Marx (2013) concludes that businesses with significantly higher earnings produce significantly more sales. Aharoni, Grundy, and Zeng (2013) find that a rise in spending and a decline in profit margins were associated with an increase in profit. From these results, Fama and French developed that diversification enhances return.
A five-factor model for understanding financial decision-making was released in the Journal of Financial Economics in early 2015. Their aim is to remove gains from the equation and prioritize investments (CMA-Conservative Minus Aggressive Investment). This model has been tested in 23 developing markets, and reported to be successful in four regions – North America, Japan, the Asia Pacific and Europe (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, UK,. The Fama five-factor model is attracting massive interest from investors in general and from the equity market in particular.
However, most researchers have not yet explicitly solved the problem. In the analysis of Vo Hong Duc and Mai Duy Tan (2014), they graded the portfolio by running several regression models and splitting the portfolio according to their findings. However, implementing the same portfolios will lead to surprise, such as various sets of variables that might be associated and bound to each other. In comparison, modelling portfolios on just 14 individuals is not necessary to achieve reputation.
However, to the best of the author's understanding, "Application of Fama French factors to industrial companies in Viet Nam stock market", I think the article would analyze the introduction of the concept into the Vietnam stock market and help investors maximizing their value in the stock market.2 Research objective The aim of this thesis was to: Firstly, analyze the influence of the five-factor model, including industry, scale, valuation, benefit, and investment factors has on listed industrial stocks returns in the Vietnam stock market. Secondly, describe the relevant valuation model and the fluctuation of the Vietnamese capital market returns in a simple and detailed manner. Finally, offer several ideas on how owners, regulators, and other stockholders may enhance the continuing management of the fund.3 Research questions To accomplish the above study's purpose, these are the questions it seeks to address: - Does a company's book-to-market ratio, profitability, scale, market premium, and investment risk impact the portfolio's returns? Is there a favorable or negative connection between the stock results and the external factors? - The Fama French five-factor model is sufficient method for describing the shifts in returns in the equity market in Viet Nam? - Why investors make use of analysis to raise equity capital and reduce investment risks? 1.4 Research subject and range The study emphasis is on utilizing the Fama French Five-Factor Pricing Model for mentioned manufacturing firms on the HNX and HOSE exchanges. Research range: - The time frame for the study is from 2014 to 2019.
Prioritizing the objective to create an accurate analysis, any earlier return data is disregarded in this study. - Firms from the study are expected to be majored in Industrials, listed as securities, and need to provide accessible data concerning Market Price, Total Assets, Total Liabilities, Shares Outstanding, Book Value and Treasury bill taken from the VNCB from the three-month duration of the survey. - Space: This analysis used closed market details of the reported market capitalization of industrial firms on HOSE and HNX. Companies outside of the banking industry, including insurance companies, insurers and brokerage companies, are not listed in these rankings.5 Methodlogy The aim of the analysis was to evaluate the Fama French Five Factor Model in Vietnamese industrial firms, a quantitative methodology was implemented: - Follow the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) procedure to quantify the Betas, and analyze the association between variables and portfolios.
- Using Gibbons, Ross, and Shanken (1989) GRS model to approximate the fundamental influence of the model on the list of firms. - Excel Office is used to synthesize data and equations accompanied by the usage of Stata version 13 to execute regression and other related hypothesis testing procedures. Research model: 𝑟 𝑟 (𝑟 𝑟 ) 𝑠 𝑟 Where: the expected return on asset i, the risk-free rate of Treasury bill, the excess market return, , (Small minus Big) the size factor, (High minus Low) the value factor, (Robust minus Weakness) the profitability factor and (Conservative minus Aggressive) the investment factor. The coefficients is the asset’s sensibility, the intercept and the error term of asset i at time t.6 Research contribution The thesis provides many unique contributions: The purpose of the study is to validate the usability of Fama French five-factor pricing models.
Thus, the study can clarify more precisely the factors of the Fama French model for investors and researchers who are studying and discovering the ways to predict future income rates by limiting the immediate risks. As a consequence, the concept can be extended directly to the Vietnam capital exchange. Experimentally, by assessing the feasibility of the templates, analyzing the test findings, and presenting any hints to investors and individuals when choosing and handling the portfolio.7 Research outline Chapter 1: Introduction This chapter introduces the motives for conducting this project, the research aims, the research subject, the research range and the scope of work. Chapter 2: Literature review This chapter presents the theoretical background behind the current study, and previous research into a similar subject.
Chapter 3: Data and methodology This chapter outlines the study architecture and the specifics of the experiment. The author defines the dependent and influencing variables, gives guidance for constructing a portfolio, and describes regression analysis and the steps involved in using it. Chapter 4: Empirical results This chapter includes a regression study to demonstrate the effects of the key model discussed in Chapter 3. This section includes data on all variables, including association, graph, and compare and contrast of models.
Any segment concludes with a description of the findings and a reference to previous research. Chapter 5: Conclusions and recommendations Overall, I noticed that this study was useful in many respects. The author offers a deeper interpretation of this analysis and gives suggestions for company owners, bank officers and public policy leaders. The shortcomings of the analysis are stated and recommendations for future studies are made.
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW AND PREVIOUS RESEARCHES 2.1 Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) In 1976, Ross did not merely expand an established theory but to establish a new idea. This theory, regarded as the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), became extremely popular.