Master Thesis Reassurances Name: Pham Viet Dinh Major: Sustainable Hydraulic Structures Student ID # 148ULG010 This is my thesis with the topic "Probabilistic reliability analysis of Red river dike system protecting Giao Thuy - Nam Dinh" under the guidance of Assoc. Mai Van Cong - Thuyloi University and Prof. Radu Sarghiuta - University of Liege. I hereby declare that this thesis is the scientific study of my own.
The results and data in the thesis are honest and no one published it in any other research. Ha Noi, October 2016 Pham Viet Dinh Dinh Pham Viet — 148ULGO10 Master Thesis Acknowledgments Afiera period of research, my master thesis with the topic "Probabilistic reliability analysis of Red river dike system protecting Giao Thuy Nam Dinh" has been completed with the enthusiastic help of lecturers, friends, colleagues and my family To obtain results as today, I would like 10 express deep gratitude to the Assoc. Mai Van Cong from Thuyloi University and Prof. Radu Sarghiua from University of Liege those who were enthusiastic to guide and provide knowledge, documentation, scientific information as well as contribute valuable comments during the implementation of this thesis.
Lalso sincerely thank the help, the assistance in terms of expertise and experience of the teachers teaching in class, undergraduate and postgraduate training office classmate in Thuyloi University and all my family, friends have motivated, inspired, create favorable conditions in all aspects to completing this thesis. In the process of implementation of the thesis, due to the time and limited knowledge, there are surely unavoidable mistakes, so Ï wish to receive the comments of teachers, colleagues to help me improve knowledge in terms of learning and researching. Sincere thanks! HaNoi, October 2016 Pham Viet Dinh Dinh Pham Vier ~ L48ULGOIO Master Thesis Table of contents ‘Chapter 1: General introduction 1. Reasonable of this study 1.3, Intemational related research applications.4, Present situation of flood risks in Vietnam.6, Study approach (Chapter 2: Boundary conditions & description of study area 2.
Description of dike systems in Vietnam, 2. The influen of hydrology ce ‘The influence ofthe tide 2. The influence ofirrigation planning, traffic and construction 4, The influence of the protected area l0 2. The influence ofotber factors l0 2.4, Present situations of Huu Hong river dikes 2.5, Practical issues in application ofthe standard criteria and norms 2.6, Overview of traditional design methods: 26.
Background information Dinh Pham Vier ~ L48ULGOIO Master Thesis 2. Shortcoming in traditional design methods 2. Overview of probabilistic design method. Historical de ‘lopment of probabilistic design method in the world 2.
The approach of the method of probabilisie design 2. Conclusion chapter2 Chapter 3: Safety assessinent& reliability analysis of Huy Hong river dike 3. Reliability analysis of components in system 3.3, Mathematical basis of probabilistic design 3.4, Reliability analysis of system. Application of the probabilistic des in reliability of river dike system ofthe Huu Hong river dike 7 3.
Case study: Safety assessment of existing river dike system in Giao Thuy district 38 3. Possible failure mechanisms of the river dike.3, Fault Tree Analys 46 3.4, Conclusion chapter 3 46 ‘Chapter4: Application of probabilistic reliability analysis to assess safety of Huu Hong river dike system 4s 4.1, Failure mechanisms to consider. Instability revetment mechanism sĩ 4.3, Scouring mechanism at dike toe.4, Piping mechanism 9 Dinh Pham Vier ~ L48ULGOIO Master Thesis 4.5, Inner slope instability mechanism.6, Fault Tree Analysis 6 4.2, Establishing fragility curve os 4.3, Conclusion chapter 4 “Chapter5: Conclusions and recommendations kì 5. Exis ng problems ? 5.4, Further research directions ” References 16 Appendix 1 n Parameters and documentation used to calculate forthe Huu Hong river dike n Appendix 2 86 Result of probabilistic reliability analysis $6 Dinh Pham Vier ~ L48ULGOIO Master Thesis List of figures ‘Figure 2-1: Storms, natural disasters affect the coastal areas in Vietnam, Figure 2.2: Administrative maps of Nam Dinh province.
Figure 2-3: Location of Nam Dinh province on the map (from google map) Figure 2-4: Overall system map dikes in Giao Thuy district -Nam Dinh province. Figure 2-5: Representative cross-section of Huu Hong river dike, Figure 2-6: Several photos of current situation of Huu Hong dike Figure 3-1: Framework of risk analysis (CUR 141 ~ 1990). Figure 3-2: Reliability funetion is shown in the plane RS Figure 3.3: Definition ofthe probability of failure andthe reliability index. 28 Figure 3-4: Diagram of failure analysis of serial system and parallel system 37 Figure 3-5: Diagram of flood defense system of Huu Hong river dike ~ Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province 39 Figure 36: The failure mechanisms can occur in iver dikes (CUR/TAW 1995) 40 Figure 37: Overflowing scheme 41 Figure 38: Instability revetment scheme Figure 3-9: Scouring mechanism at dike oe scheme 4B Figure 3-10; Ruptuing scheme Figure 3-11: Sand flowing scheme: Figure 3-12: Slope sliding scheme 45 Figure 3-13: Fault Tree diagram of flood defenses system ~ Huu Hong dikes.
Figure 4-1: Real measured data ofdike crest level 49 Figure 4-2: Distribution of dike crest level based on real measured data by using BESTFIT software, 49 Figure 4-3: Real measured data offlood water evel 50 Dinh Pham Vier ~ L48ULGOIO Master Thesis Figure 4-4: Distribution of flood water level based on real measured data by using BESTEIT. 50 Figure 45: Influence of random variables tothe overflowing mechanism. sĩ Figure 4-6: Influence of random variables to instability revetment mechanism “ Figure 4-7; Real measured daa of flood flow. % Figure 48: Distbution of flood flow by using BESTEIT software.
37 Figure 4-9: Influence of random variables to scouring mechanism at dike toe. sẽ Figure 4-10: Real measured data ofupstream water level Cy Figure 4-11: Distribution of upstream water level based on real measured data by using BESTEIT software o Figure 4-12: Influence of random variables to the rupturing mechanism, e Figure 4-13: Influence of random variables to sand flowing mechanism @ Figure 4-14: Results ofinner sliding stability by using Geostudio 2007 software 64 Figure 4-15: Diagram of Fault Tree Analysis for Hu Hong river dike system 66 Figure 4-16: Result of failure probability after using OpenFTA software bu igure 4-17: Graph ofthe iterative period with the highest wate level at Ba Lat hydrology station « Figure 4-18; Fragility curve of comeladion between Pf,,.„, and FWL a Figure 6-1: Iterative period according to highest water level at Hon Dau, Ba Lat hydrology station 18 Figure 6-2: Diagram of height of wave sl Figure 6-3: Figure AI- Appendix Al - TCVN 8421-2010 ~ Graph of determining wave factors by the windin deep water and shallow water 2 Figure 6-4: Figure A2- Appendix Al - TCVN 8421-2010 ~ Graph of determining coelicient k,83 Figure 6-5: Result of inner sliding stability by using Geostudio 2007 software 85 Figure 6-6: Result ofoverflowing mechanism in case FWL = 3.62m $6 Dinh Pham Vier ~ L48ULGOIO Master Thesis Figure 6-7: Result of instability revetment mechanism in ease FWL = 3. $6 Figure 6-8; Result of scouring mechanism at dike toe in case FWL = 3,62m, fo Figure 6-9: Result of rupturing mechanism in cas FWL. 62m fo Figure 6-10: Result of sand flowing mechanism in ease FWL, 62m.
$8 Figure 6-11: Result of inner slope instability mechanism in case FWL 88 Figure 6 12: Diagram of Fault Tree Analysis in case FWL = 3. sọ Figure 6-13: Result of overflowing mechanism in ease FWL= 2.0m 9 Figure 6-14: Diagram of Fault Tree Analysis in case FWL = 2.0m, sĩ Dinh Pham Vier ~ L48ULGOIO Master Thesis List of tables ‘Table 4-1: List of random variables according to the overflowing mechani n. 30 ‘Table 4-2: The probability of the failure and the influence coefficient ofthe random variables to the overflowing mechanism, sĩ Table 4-3: List ofrandom variables according to the ability revetment mechanism, s ‘Table 4-4: The probability of the failure and the influence coefficient of the random variables to the instability revetment mechanism, s ‘Table 4-5: List of random variables according to the scouring mechanism at dike toe 37 ‘Table 4-6: The probability of the failure and the influence coefficient of the random variables to the scouring mechanism at dike toe. sẽ ‘Table 47: List of random variables according to the piping mechanism, 6 Table 4-8: The probability ofthe failure and the influence coefficient of the random variables to the rupturing mechanism, đt ‘Table 4-9: The probability of the failure and the influence coefficient of the random variables to the sand flowing mechaniem.
a ‘Table 4-10: The probability of the failure of the inner slope instability mechanism, 64 ‘alle 4-11: Results of failure probability of Huu Hong river dike 63 ‘Tale 4-12: Tale ofthe trative period with the highest water level at Ba Lat hydrology station O Table 4-13: Probabilistic calculation with difference value of FWL. 0 Dinh Pham Vier ~ L48ULGOIO Master Thesis ' Chapter 1: General introduction 1. Reasonable of this study Vietnam has about 3260 km of coastline, mainly consists of coastal lowland is protected by a sea dike system, natural dunes, and mountains, More than 165 km of coastline in the Red River delta, populated areas where there are significant changes and dynamic impact destroyed With intense frequently from the sea (storms, changes in sea level, flow, ete.) Therefore, dikes are important structures which are buil, maintained and protected through generations to prevent food water, sea water and to protect the lives and property ofthe government and people, to promote social and economic Social development, linked to national defense, security sovereignty, and national benefits. The process of formation and development ofthe dike system always linked to the life and productive activites of the people from generation to generation Most dikes are now combined as roads in which many dikes pass through tourist areas, urban areas and residential areas.
During the development processes, requirements for dike system as ‘well a the direct impacts of human on the dik re growing and increasing in complex evolution. In recent years, natural disasters and climate changes in Vietnam have had more abnormal and complex. In particular, storms and floods are two types of natural disasters which frequently ‘occur and cause the most severe consequences, especially in the area of coastal estuaries However, most of the system of dikes and storm prevention, flood prevention existing today in Vietnam is designed and constructed based on the experience accumulated from many generations and applied safety standards which only suit economic situation - engineering conditions of the country in some decades ago. Before the adverse effects of weather variations and changes in an abnormal phenomenon of natural disasters đe to climate change, coupled with the requirement to ensure higher evel of safety of the protected areas to serve the sustainable development of economic - society, the research and development applications in reliability theory of optimal design system against storms, floods and on this basis build up the safety assessment criteria according to reliability theory and construction process safety assessment system of dikes in estuaries and coastal areas.
according to theory of reliability in Vietnam condition atthe present time and the future is necessary. Pham Vier Dink ~ L48ULGOIO Master Thesis 1. General information Vietnam has a dense network of rivers and the coast stretching from North to South, so the system of dikes and bank protection structures play an extremely important role in the prevention, disaster mitigation and protecting the safety of the cultural center, the political, economic and residential areas stretching along the vast river basin, the coastal regions of the ‘country. According to the general trend of development, nowadays coastal areas are a key economic zone dynamic contibution and increasingly more important role in the national ‘economy and national security, Therefore, the requirements forthe protection ofthe population and cconomy against the destruction of hurricanes, floods, surges are becoming ever more urgent.