P1: OTA/XYZ P2: ABC JWBT634-fm JWBT634-Grimes May 11, 2012 8:28 Printer: Hamilton Printing The Art and Science of Technical Analysis P1: OTA/XYZ P2: ABC JWBT634-fm JWBT634-Grimes May 11, 2012 8:28 Printer: Hamilton Printing Founded in 1807, John Wiley & Sons is the oldest independent publishing company in the United States. With offices in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia, Wiley is glob- ally committed to developing and marketing print and electronic products and services for our customers’ professional and personal knowledge and understanding. The Wiley Trading series features books by traders who have survived the mar- ket’s ever changing temperament and have prospered—some by reinventing systems, others by getting back to basics. Whether a novice trader, professional, or somewhere in-between, these books will provide the advice and strategies needed to prosper today and well into the future.
For a list of available titles, please visit our Web site at www. P1: OTA/XYZ P2: ABC JWBT634-fm JWBT634-Grimes May 11, 2012 8:28 Printer: Hamilton Printing The Art and Science of Technical Analysis Market Structure, Price Action, and Trading Strategies ADAM GRIMES John Wiley & Sons, Inc. P1: OTA/XYZ P2: ABC JWBT634-fm JWBT634-Grimes May 11, 2012 8:28 Printer: Hamilton Printing Copyright C 2012 by Adam Grimes. All rights reserved.
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data: Grimes, Adam, 1973– The art and science of technical analysis : market structure, price action, and trading strategies / Adam Grimes. – (Wiley trading series ; 544) Includes bibliographical references and index.63 2042–dc23 2012000874 Printed in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 P1: OTA/XYZ P2: ABC JWBT634-fm JWBT634-Grimes May 11, 2012 8:28 Printer: Hamilton Printing To my wife Betsy. Without her unfailing love and support I could have accomplished nothing. P1: OTA/XYZ P2: ABC JWBT634-fm JWBT634-Grimes May 11, 2012 8:28 Printer: Hamilton Printing P1: OTA/XYZ P2: ABC JWBT634-fm JWBT634-Grimes May 11, 2012 8:28 Printer: Hamilton Printing Contents Preface xi Acknowledgments xv PART I The Foundation of Technical Analysis CHAPTER 1 The Trader’s Edge 3 Defining a Trading Edge 4 Finding and Developing Your Edge 7 General Principles of Chart Reading 8 Indicators 12 The Two Forces: Toward a New Understanding of Market Action 13 Price Action and Market Structure on Charts 15 Charting by Hand 28 CHAPTER 2 The Market Cycle and the Four Trades 31 Wyckoff’s Market Cycle 32 The Four Trades 40 Summary 45 PART II Market Structure CHAPTER 3 On Trends 49 The Fundamental Pattern 49 Trend Structure 51 A Deeper Look at Pullbacks: The Quintessential Trend Trading Pattern 65 vii P1: OTA/XYZ P2: ABC JWBT634-fm JWBT634-Grimes May 11, 2012 8:28 Printer: Hamilton Printing viii CONTENTS Trend Analysis 77 Summary 95 CHAPTER 4 On Trading Ranges 97 Support and Resistance 97 Trading Ranges as Functional Structures 113 Summary 120 CHAPTER 5 Interfaces between Trends and Ranges 121 Breakout Trade: Trading Range to Trend 122 Trend to Trading Range 134 Trend to Opposite Trend (Trend Reversal) 137 Trend to Same Trend (Failure of Trend Reversal) 143 Summary 145 PART III Trading Strategies CHAPTER 6 Practical Trading Templates 149 Failure Test 150 Pullback, Buying Support or Shorting Resistance 154 Pullback, Entering Lower Time Frame Breakout 162 Trading Complex Pullbacks 165 The Anti 170 Breakouts, Entering in the Preceding Base 174 Breakouts, Entering on First Pullback Following 181 Failed Breakouts 183 Summary 186 CHAPTER 7 Tools for Confirmation 189 The Moving Average—The Still Center 190 Channels: Emotional Extremes 195 Indicators: MACD 202 Multiple Time Frame Analysis 213 CHAPTER 8 Trade Management 231 Placing the Initial Stop 232 Setting Price Targets 235 P1: OTA/XYZ P2: ABC JWBT634-fm JWBT634-Grimes May 11, 2012 8:28 Printer: Hamilton Printing Contents ix Active Management 240 Portfolio Considerations 251 Practical Issues 253 CHAPTER 9 Risk Management 263 Risk and Position Sizing 263 Theoretical Perspectives on Risk 279 Misunderstood Risk 282 Practical Risks in Trading 283 Summary 290 CHAPTER 10 Trade Examples 291 Trend Continuation 293 Trend Termination 313 Failure Test Failures 319 Trading Parabolic Climaxes 323 The Anti 327 Trading at Support and Resistance 336 Summary 343 PART IV The Individual, Self-Directed Trader CHAPTER 11 The Trader’s Mind 347 Psychological Challenges of the Marketplace 348 Evolutionary Adaptations 349 Cognitive Biases 353 The Random Reinforcement Problem 356 Emotions: The Enemy Within 357 Intuition 360 Flow 364 Practical Psychology 367 Summary 372 CHAPTER 12 Becoming a Trader 375 The Process 376 Record Keeping 385 Statistical Analysis of Trading Results 388 Summary 397 P1: OTA/XYZ P2: ABC JWBT634-fm JWBT634-Grimes May 11, 2012 8:28 Printer: Hamilton Printing x CONTENTS APPENDIX A Trading Primer 399 APPENDIX B A Deeper Look at Moving Averages and the MACD 409 APPENDIX C Sample Trade Data 425 Glossary 427 Bibliography 443 About the Author 447 Index 449 P1: OTA/XYZ P2: ABC JWBT634-bpreface JWBT634-Grimes May 10, 2012 11:23 Printer: Hamilton Printing Preface he book you are holding in your hands is the product of nearly two decades of my T study and experience as a trader, covering the full span of actively traded markets and time frames.
I owe much to authors and traders who have come before me, for no one produces anything significant in a vacuum. I would not have been successful without the help and guidance of my mentors, but I learned many of the lessons here from my own mistakes. In some ways, this work represents a radical break from many of the books that have preceded it, and I hope it encourages you to question much of the traditional thinking of technical analysis. This book does not present a rigid system to be strictly followed, nor a set of setups and patterns that can be assembled at the trader’s whim.
Rather, it offers a comprehen- sive approach to the problems of technically motivated, directional trading. The book is structured to be read from beginning to end, but individual sections and chapters stand on their own. Through the entire work, deliberate repetition of important concepts helps to build a complete perspective on many of the problems traders face. The tools and techniques must be adapted to the trader’s personality and business situation, but most will find a firm foundation between these covers.
There are some underlying themes, perhaps not expressed explicitly, that tie this work together, and they may be surprising to many readers: Trading is hard. Markets are extremely competitive. They are usually very close to efficient, and most observed price movements are random. It is therefore exceedingly difficult to derive a method that makes superior risk-adjusted profits, and it is even more difficult to successfully apply such a method in actual trading.
Last, it is essential to have a verifiable edge in the markets—otherwise no consistent profits are possible. This approach sets this work apart from the majority of trading books published, which suggest that simple patterns and proper psychology can lead a trader to impressive profits. Perhaps this is possible, but I have never seen it work in actual practice. This book is divided into four parts: r Part One begins with a look at some of the probability theory supporting the con- cepts of successful trading.
Next comes an in-depth look at a specific approach to chart reading that focuses on clarity and consistency lays the foundation for build- ing and understanding of price patterns in markets. This section concludes with an xi P1: OTA/XYZ P2: ABC JWBT634-bpreface JWBT634-Grimes May 10, 2012 11:23 Printer: Hamilton Printing xii PREFACE overview of the Wyckoff market cycle, which is already well known in the literature of technical analysis. r Part Two focuses on the details of trends, trading ranges, and critically, the tran- sitions from one to the other in considerable detail. This is a deep look at the un- derlying foundation of price movements, and there is information here that, to my knowledge, has never appeared in print before.
r Part Three might appear, at first glance, to be the meat of this book, as it includes specific trading patterns and examples of those patterns applied to real markets. It also advocates a way of looking at indicators and other confirming factors that re- quires a deep understanding of the nuances of these tools. One of the key elements of any trading plan is how the trader sizes the trade and manages the position as it develops; these elements are also covered in considerable depth. Much attention is devoted to the many risks traders will encounter, both from the market and from themselves.
Though most traders are going to be tempted to turn directly to this sec- tion, remember that these patterns are only the tip of the spear, and they are mean- ingless unless they are placed within the context provided by Parts One and Two. r Part Four is specifically written for the individual trader, and begins by focusing on elements of psychology such as cognitive biases and issues of emotional control. Chapter 11 takes a look at many of the challenges developing traders typically face. Though it is impossible to reduce the trader development process to a one-size-fits- all formula, the majority of traders struggle with the same issues.
Most traders fail because they do not realize that the process of becoming a trader is a long one, and they are not prepared to make the commitment. This section concludes with a look at some performance analysis tools that can help both the developing and the established trader to track key performance metrics and to target problems before they have a serious impact on the bottom line. r Last, there are three appendixes in this work. The first appendix is a trading primer that will be useful for developing traders or for managers who do not have a famil- iarity with the language used by traders.
Like any discipline, trading has its own id- ioms and lingo, an understanding of which is important for effective communication.