Tình Hình Thâm Hụt Ngân Sách Nhà Nước Việt Nam Từ 2012 Đến 2015: Nguyên Nhân và Giải Pháp

Khóa luận tốt nghiệp nghiên cứu tốt nghiệp ngoại ngữ the budget deficit in vietnam from 2012 until 2015 situation reasons and, vận dụng lý thuyết vào thực tế, đề xuất giải pháp cụ

• Tác giả: Nguyen Thu Thao
• Người hướng dẫn: M.A. Nguyen Thi Hien Hanh
• Trường học: Banking Academy
• Chuyên ngành: Economics
• Đề tài: The Budget Deficit In Vietnam From 2012 Until 2015: Situation, Reasons And Solutions
• Loại tài liệu: Graduation Thesis
• Năm xuất bản: 2015
• Địa điểm: Hanoi

Mục lục chi tiết

• DECLARATION
• ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
• ABSTRACT
• 1. CHAPTER 1: THEORITICAL BACKGROUND OF BUDGET DEFICIT
• 1.1. The state budget
• 1.2. The state budget deficit
• 1.3. Calculation of budgetary balance
• 1.4. Classification of budget deficit
• 1.4.1. Structural deficit
• 1.4.2. Cyclical deficit
• 1.5. Causes of budget deficit
• 1.6. Impacts of budget deficit on the economy
• 1.6.1. Impact on interest rate and investment
• 1.6.2. Impact on inflation
• 1.6.3. Impact on trade balance and exchange rates
• 2. CHAPTER II: BUDGET DEFICIT IN VIETNAM (2012- NOW): SITUATION AND REASONS
• 2.1. Situation of budget deficit in Vietnam
• 2.1.1. Budget deficit in 2012
• 2.1.2. Budget deficit in 2013
• 2.1.3. Budget deficit in 2014
• 2.1.4. Budget plan for 2015
• 2.2. Reasons for budget deficit in Vietnam
• 3. CHAPTER III: SOLUTIONS TO BUDGET DEFICIT IN VIETNAM
• 3.1. Renewing the method of budget deficit calculation
• 3.2. Determining the proactive and rational deficit
• LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES
• LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
• INTRODUCTION
• 0.1. Research rationale
• 0.2. Aims of study
• 0.3. Research questions
• 0.4. Scope of the study
• 0.5. Research methodology
• 0.6. Structure of the thesis

Tóm tắt

I. Tổng quan về tình hình thâm hụt ngân sách nhà nước Việt Nam 2012 2015

Tình hình thâm hụt ngân sách nhà nước Việt Nam giai đoạn 2012-2015 đã trở thành một vấn đề đáng quan tâm trong bối cảnh kinh tế toàn cầu biến động. Trong giai đoạn này, ngân sách nhà nước đã liên tục ghi nhận tình trạng thâm hụt, với tỷ lệ thâm hụt cao so với các nước trong khu vực. Việc phân tích nguyên nhân và hệ quả của tình trạng này là cần thiết để tìm ra giải pháp hiệu quả.

1.1. Định nghĩa và phân loại thâm hụt ngân sách

Thâm hụt ngân sách được định nghĩa là tình trạng mà trong đó chi tiêu của chính phủ vượt quá doanh thu. Có nhiều cách phân loại thâm hụt ngân sách, bao gồm thâm hụt cấu trúc và thâm hụt chu kỳ.

1.2. Tình hình thâm hụt ngân sách giai đoạn 2012 2015

Trong giai đoạn này, ngân sách nhà nước Việt Nam đã ghi nhận nhiều năm thâm hụt, với các số liệu cụ thể cho từng năm cho thấy sự gia tăng chi tiêu vượt mức doanh thu.

II. Nguyên nhân chính dẫn đến thâm hụt ngân sách nhà nước Việt Nam

Có nhiều nguyên nhân dẫn đến tình trạng thâm hụt ngân sách tại Việt Nam trong giai đoạn 2012-2015. Các nguyên nhân này không chỉ đến từ các yếu tố khách quan mà còn từ sự quản lý kém của các cơ quan có thẩm quyền. Việc hiểu rõ nguyên nhân sẽ giúp xây dựng các giải pháp phù hợp.

2.1. Nguyên nhân khách quan

Các yếu tố như chu kỳ kinh tế và thiên tai bất ngờ đã ảnh hưởng lớn đến doanh thu ngân sách, dẫn đến tình trạng thâm hụt.

2.2. Nguyên nhân chủ quan

Quản lý ngân sách kém và chính sách tài khóa không hiệu quả đã góp phần làm gia tăng thâm hụt ngân sách trong giai đoạn này.

III. Giải pháp giảm thiểu thâm hụt ngân sách nhà nước Việt Nam

Để khắc phục tình trạng thâm hụt ngân sách, cần có những giải pháp đồng bộ và hiệu quả. Các giải pháp này bao gồm việc giảm chi tiêu, tăng cường thu ngân sách và cải cách chính sách tài khóa.

3.1. Giải pháp giảm chi tiêu

Cần xem xét và cắt giảm các khoản chi không cần thiết trong ngân sách để giảm áp lực thâm hụt.

3.2. Giải pháp tăng thu ngân sách

Tăng cường quản lý thuế và mở rộng cơ sở thuế sẽ giúp tăng doanh thu ngân sách, từ đó giảm thâm hụt.

IV. Ứng dụng thực tiễn và kết quả nghiên cứu về thâm hụt ngân sách

Nghiên cứu về tình hình thâm hụt ngân sách đã chỉ ra rằng việc áp dụng các giải pháp tài chính hợp lý có thể giúp cải thiện tình hình ngân sách. Các kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy sự cần thiết phải có các chính sách tài khóa linh hoạt và hiệu quả.

4.1. Kết quả từ các giải pháp đã thực hiện

Một số giải pháp đã được áp dụng và cho thấy hiệu quả trong việc giảm thâm hụt ngân sách trong thời gian ngắn hạn.

4.2. Bài học từ các nước khác

Nghiên cứu kinh nghiệm từ các quốc gia khác có thể cung cấp những bài học quý giá cho Việt Nam trong việc quản lý ngân sách.

V. Kết luận và triển vọng tương lai về thâm hụt ngân sách nhà nước

Tình hình thâm hụt ngân sách nhà nước Việt Nam trong giai đoạn 2012-2015 đã chỉ ra nhiều thách thức nhưng cũng mở ra cơ hội cho cải cách. Việc thực hiện các giải pháp tài chính hiệu quả sẽ giúp cải thiện tình hình ngân sách trong tương lai.

5.1. Tóm tắt các vấn đề chính

Tình hình thâm hụt ngân sách đã được phân tích từ nhiều góc độ, từ nguyên nhân đến giải pháp.

5.2. Triển vọng tương lai

Cần có những chính sách tài khóa bền vững để đảm bảo ngân sách nhà nước hoạt động hiệu quả trong tương lai.

Trích đoạn nội dung tài liệu

STATE BANK OF VIETNAM BANKING ACADEMY Foreign Language Faculty ---------- GRADUATION THESIS THE BUDGET DEICIT IN VIETNAM FROM 2012 UNTIL 2015: SITUATION, REASONS AND SOLUTIONS Student : Nguyen Thu Thao Class : ATCB-K14 Student Code : 14A7510221 Supervisor : Nguyen Thi Hien Hanh (M.A) Hanoi, 20th May 2015 GRADUATION THESIS BANKING ACADEMY DECLARATION I hereby declare that this graduation thesis is the product of my own work except for quotations and citations which have been duly indicated and acknowledged by means of complete references. I also declare that it has not been previously or simultaneously submitted for any degree or examination in any other university. Signature Nguyen Thu Thao NGUYEN THU THAO ATCB-K14 GRADUATION THESIS BANKING ACADEMY ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS My sincerest gratitude goes towards a great number of people who helped me in my process of writing this paper. First of all, I would like to express my deep appreciation to my supervisor, M.

Nguyen Thi Hien Hanh from Foreign Language Faculty. I have been amazingly fortunate to have a supervisor who gave me the freedom to do research on my own and at the same time the guidance to recover when my steps faltered. Without her instruction and encouragement, the thesis could not have materialized. I am also grateful to all my lecturers in Banking Academy who have tirelessly taught me invaluable knowledge and skills over the past four years at university.

Last but not least, my special thanks go to my family and all my friends who have been a constant source of love, concern, support and strength, greatly assisting me in completing my work. NGUYEN THU THAO ATCB-K14 GRADUATION THESIS BANKING ACADEMY ABSTRACT This graduation thesis presents the real situation of the state budget deficit in Vietnam from 2012 until now. Firstly, some basic knowledge about this phenomenon is covered in the theoretical background. Based on this foremost information, the next part of the thesis provides readers with the situation of state budget deficit in Vietnam.

Vietnam has run a consecutive budget deficit for over ten years and the deficit is among the highest ones compared with other countries in the region. Budget expenditures tend to rise and often exceed budget revenues. The causes of this problem in the case of Vietnam are then clarified. The reasons are not only from objective conditions such as economic cycles or unexpected natural disasters, but also from the poor management of competent authorities.

The final words draw the solutions that are necessary for the Government and related ministries to solve the issue, namely, expenditure reduction, revenue increase, borrowings, and money issuance. The paper also figures out and assesses some weaknesses of all solutions applied so that the government could decide which one should be used in each specific context in softening budget deficit. NGUYEN THU THAO ATCB-K14 GRADUATION THESIS BANKING ACADEMY TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS.

5 LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES. 7 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS. Aims of study. Scope of the study.

Structure of the thesis. 2 CHAPTER I: THEORITICAL BACKGROUND OF BUDGET DEFICIT. The state budget. The state budget deficit.

Calculation of budgetary balance. Classification of budget deficit. Causes of budget deficit. Impacts of budget deficit on the economy.

Impact on interest rate and investment. Impact on inflation. Impact on trade balance and exchange rates. 15 NGUYEN THU THAO ATCB-K14 GRADUATION THESIS BANKING ACADEMY CHAPTER II: BUDGET DEFICIT IN VIETNAM (2012- NOW): SITUATION AND REASONS.

Situation of budget deficit in Vietnam. Budget deficit in 2012. Budget deficit in 2013. Budget deficit in 2014.

Budget plan for 2015. Reasons for budget deficit in Vietnam. 31 CHAPTER III: SOLUTIONS TO BUDGET DEFICIT IN VIETNAM. Renewing the method of budget deficit calculation.

Determining the proactive and rational deficit. 48 NGUYEN THU THAO ATCB-K14 GRADUATION THESIS BANKING ACADEMY LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES No. Name Page Table 1 State budget balance in 2012 19 Table 2 State budget balance in 2013 22 Table 3 State budget balance in 2014 23 Table 4 Budget plan for 2015 26 Table 5 State budget balance Quarter I/2015 28 Table 6 Tax revenue situation in Vietnam (2012-2014) 38 Figure 1 Budget deficit to GDP ratio in Vietnam (2012-2015) 18 Figure 2 State budget revenue structure in 2015 27 Figure 3 State budget expenditure structure in 2015 28 Figure 4 Forms of government borrowings 40 Figure 5 Public borrowing situation in Vietnam 2011-2012 43 NGUYEN THU THAO ATCB-K14 GRADUATION THESIS BANKING ACADEMY LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS Abbreviation Full name MOF Ministry of Finance ADB The Asian Development Bank WB World Bank GFS Government Finance Statistics IMF International Monetary Funds GDP Gross Domestic Products FDI Foreign Direct Investment ODA Official Development Assistance CPI Consumer price index PRC People’s Republic of China MPI Ministry of Planning and Investment SBV The State Bank of Vietnam NGUYEN THU THAO ATCB-K14 GRADUATION THESIS BANKING ACADEMY INTRODUCTION 1. Research rationale In recent years, the state budget has played an important part in helping the States fulfill their functions and duties.

Nevertheless, the use of state budget still has many shortcomings about management, leading to the prolonged budget deficit situation. State budget deficit has been relatively popular in most areas over the world. This is an extremely complicated problem, having both positive and negative impacts on economy, politics, and society…. Even United States, an economic superpower, has also faced this issue.

Therefore, not only our State but also the others give deep concerns. In the context of global economy with many big fluctuations of oil prices or high inflation, finding out solutions to adjust budget deficit in the nations over the world in general and in Vietnam in particular has been urgent and necessary. Vietnam is not an exception of budget deficit problem. Deficit, budget deficit solutions and budget innovation are regularly posed issues.

However, the problem of finding the essence, causes, consequences and solutions to handle the budget deficit is too difficult to be addressed basically. Stemming from that situation, I choose the topic “The budget deficit in Vietnam in the period of 2012-2015: Situation, Reasons and Solutions” as my graduation thesis’s title in the hope of analyzing, assessing, proposing measures to improve budget deficit in Vietnam with the theoretical and practical significances in the current period and the next years. Aims of study The general purpose of this thesis is to analyze the situation and proposing solutions to limit the budget deficit in the coming period. Specifically, the thesis is to clarify the basic theoretical backgrounds about budget deficit limitation: definitions, causes, as a basis of reference for assessing the budget deficit situation in Vietnam and proposing solutions for the next period.

In addition, it is to analyze NGUYEN THU THAO 1 ATCB-K14 GRADUATION THESIS BANKING ACADEMY the budget deficit reduction situation in Vietnam over the period of 2012-2015, indicating success, limitations and causes, as a practical basis for proposing solutions. Another specific purpose of the thesis is to propose solution system to reduce budget deficit in Vietnam. Research questions The thesis will give answers to the following questions:  What is the situation of budget deficit in Vietnam over the period of 2012- 2015?  What are suggested solutions to reduce budget deficit in Vietnam? 4. Scope of the study Scope of research field is the state budget deficit in both theoretical and practical sides.

Time scope of the study is present time for theoretical background, in the period of 2012-2015 for budget deficit situation in Vietnam and the next period for the solutions. Research methodology The secondary data, which comes from websites and organizations’ reports, is predominantly used in the thesis. It is mainly extracted from the MOF reports and generalized to tables and figures. The theoretical framework is abstracted from some books and websites listed for references.

Structure of the thesis Apart from the Introduction and Conclusion, the thesis consists of three chapters: Chapter I: Theoretical background of budget deficit Chapter II: the budget deficit in Vietnam (2012-2015): Situation and Reasons Chapter III: Solutions to budget deficit in Vietnam NGUYEN THU THAO 2 ATCB-K14 GRADUATION THESIS BANKING ACADEMY CHAPTER I: THEORITICAL BACKGROUND OF BUDGET DEFICIT 1. The state budget In the financial system, state budget is a key element, playing an important role in maintaining the operation of the State apparatus. Along with the socio- economic development, there are many definitions of state budget: Classical economists believe that state budget is an annual financial document describing government’s revenues and expenditures. The modern economists also define state budget in different ways.

In Western economists’ opinion, State budget or Government budget is the largest centralized monetary fund of the state. Besides, Chinese economists define state budget as a State’s annual financial revenue and spending plan approved based on laws. In Russian economists’ viewpoint, state budget is a list of state’s revenues and expenditures in a given time. French believe that state budget is all accounting documents describing and showing revenues and expenditures of State in one year.

According to the Vietnamese State Budget Law which was passed on December 16th, 2002: The state budget is the whole State’s revenues and expenditures that are estimated by authorized state agencies and executed in one year to ensure the State’s functions and duties. In the perspective of financial activities, state budget is a specific financial activity of State. Therefore, it should be reflected in both form and its nature. In term of form, state budget is the whole estimated revenues and expenditures of the government in a certain period of time (usually a fiscal year), approved by authorized state agencies and executed in one year to ensure the State’s functions and duties.

In term of nature, state budget reflects economic relationships arising from the distribution process of financial resources between the State and other entities on the principle of direct non-reimbursement. NGUYEN THU THAO 3 ATCB-K14 GRADUATION THESIS BANKING ACADEMY The state budget is a component of national financial system. It comprises of certain financial relationships in the entire national financial relationships. Firstly, the financial relationship between State and residents is demonstrated that residents pay their taxes to the State and the State supports residents with social, medical and educational subsidies, poverty reduction support… Secondly, the financial relationship between the State and the business sector is when enterprises pay taxes to the State and the State provides legal environment, infrastructure and support costs for enterprises… Thirdly, the financial relationship between the State and social organizations is described that the State supports the activities of social organizations which are encouraged.

Finally, the financial relationship of the State with other states and international entities is shown in loans, grants, aids, economic cooperation among states or between the State and non-governmental organizations… In brief, under the most comprehensive angle, state budget is considered as one link of national financial system, reflecting economic relationships arising associated with setting up, distributing and using centralized monetary fund of state when it participates in the distribution of national financial resources to implement its functions on the basis of law. The state budget deficit The status of a budget is divided into three kinds: balanced, surplus and deficit. Budget is balanced when government revenues and expenditures are equal; whereas, it is surplus when anticipated revenues exceed expenditures and conversely it is deficit when anticipated expenditures are greater than revenues. On the other hand, budget deficit is a status of financial health in which expenditures exceed revenues in government budget balance in a certain fiscal year.

It is the imbalance between value of social products raised and amount of money spent of State. Of which, State budget revenue consists of taxes, fees, charge, revenues from leasing properties or selling national resources, grants from foreign NGUYEN THU THAO 4 ATCB-K14 GRADUATION THESIS BANKING ACADEMY countries and others that the government levies.