KBr Ory QE VNU UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINES FACULTY OF POLITICAL ECONOMY GRADUATION THESIS Q EVALUATING ENERGY SECURITY PERFORMANCE IN VIETNAM FROM 2000-2021 ADVISOR: Dr. Nguyen Thi Anh Tuyet STUDENT: Nguyen Thanh Truc STUDENT ID: 20051189 CLASS: Economics QH2020E CLC-3 TRAINING PROGRAM: CLC 3; Ha Noi ~ October 2023 ẻ isos wl KBr Ory QE VNU UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINES FACULTY OF POLITICAL ECONOMY GRADUATION THESIS Q EVALUATING ENERGY SECURITY PERFORMANCE IN VIETNAM FROM 2000-2021 ADVISOR: Dr. Nguyen Thi Anh Tuyet STUDENT: Nguyen Thanh Truc STUDENT ID: 20051189 CLASS: Economics QH2020E CLC-3 TRAINING PROGRAM: CLC 3; Ha Noi ~ October 2023 ẻ isos wl ACKNOWLEDGMENT This graduation thesis is the result of my own endless efforts over the past period, along with the guidance and help of the teachers and staff of the Faculty of Political Economics and the VNU University of Economics and Business. First of all, I would like to send my sincere gratitude to Dr.
Nguyen Thi Anh Tuyet, who gave me dedicated guidance, warm words of encouragement and tireless efforts, helped me complete this thesis. Thanks to her help, I learned not only knowledge, but also research-oriented spirit and sharp analytical thinking, which are valuable weapons for my educational and career journey. I would also like to thank all the teachers ofthe Faculty of Political Economics, who have opened the door of knowledge for me, instilled passion and aroused my love for economics. The commitment and dedication ofthe teachers instilled in me a sense of pride and responsibility for my future career.
I would also like to express my gratitude to the University of Economics and Business, which has equipped me with solid knowledge, valuable skills, and created the best conditions for me in the process of studying and researching. I would also like to express my gratitude to my family and friends. Thanks to the support and companionship of everyone, I was able to overcome difficulties and complete this thesis. Finally, despite my best efforts, this study may still contain shortcomings and errors due to my limited knowledge.
I am acutely aware that the knowledge journey is a process of constant growth and improvement. Therefore, I humbly invite the constructive feedback of esteemed scholars to enhance the quality of this work and its potential contribution to our intellectual community. In sincere appreciation, Student Nguyen Thanh Truc LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre DO Diezen Oil EF Emission factor FO Fuel oil GDP Gross Domestic Product HHI Herfindahl-Hirschman Index IEA International Energy Agency IEVN Institute of Energy, Vietnam KTOE Thousand Tonnes ofOil Equivalent LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas Momentary Average Interruption MAIFI Frequency Index MOIT Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietnam TFEC Total Final Energy Consumption TOE Tonne of Oil Equivalent TPES Total Primary Energy Supply No. Number LIST OF TABLES Table 1.
Reviewed studies on energy security. Reviewed some indicators of Energy Security Table 2. List of energy security indicators. SWOT matrix for energy security Table 3.
Some policy documents of Vietnam on energy development during the period 2000-2021 Table 3. Results of some energy security indicators for the period 2000-2021. Diversity of primary energy sources (HHI) in the period 2000-2021. Primary Energy Supply Development during 2000-2021 (KTOE).
Primary Energy Supply growth rate during 2000-2021 Table 3. Diversity ofelectricity generation (HHI) in the period 2010-2021. Electricity production and import in the period 2010-2021 (GWh). Net energy import dependence (NEID) during 2010-2021 (KTOE).
Net energy import in the period 2015-2021 Table 3. Energy intensity (Eli) and Electricity intensity (Elo) Table 3. Total final energy consumption in fuel in the period 2000-2021. Final Energy Consumption growth rate during 2000-2021.
Energy elasticity (EE) in the period 2000-2021. Energy import cost/GDP in the period 2015-2021 Table 3. Some coal import markets in 2021 [6] Table 3. Some petroleum import markets in 2021 [6] Table 3.
CO2 intensity of GDP (CI) in the period 2015-2021 Table 3. CO2 emissions of types of power plants [2] Table 3. Compare some energy security indicators of Vietnam and countries around the world in 2019 Table 3. SWOT analysis of Vietnam's energy industry.
LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Energy security AAAS dimensions. Components of the APEC energy system (APERC, 2022). Organization of Viet Nam Energy Sector Figure 3.
Structure and diversification level of TPES Figure 3. TPES structure by fuel. Primary Energy Sources during 2000-2021 (KTOE). Structure and diversity ofelectricity generation (HHI) in the period 2010- Figure 3.
Net energy import dependence (NEID) in the period 2010-2021. Final energy consumption structure in 2006-2021 by economic sector. Energy elasticity (EE) in the period 2000-2021 ACKNOWLEDGMENT LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES. TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1.
Rationale of the research 2. General research objectives 2. Specific research objectives. Research subject and scope the research 4.
Scope of the research 5. Structure of the research CHAPTER 1. LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL BASIS OF ENERGY SECURITY. Overview of research on energy security 1.
Overview of foreign research projects. Overview of domestic research projects 1. Theoretical and practical basis for energy security. Energy and its role in the country's development 1.
Defining energy security. Factors affecting energy security. Quantifying energy security performance 1. Energy security in the selected countries and experience for Vietnam.
Overview of research framework. Data collection methods 2. Energy systems approach 2. Methods of data processing and analysis CHAPTER 3.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION. Organization of Viet Nam Energy Sector. Current status of energy development policies and programs in the period 2000-2021 3. Vietnam's energy security situation 2000 - 2021 3.
Diversity of primary energy sources (HHI) 3. Diversity of electricity generation (HHI›). Net energy import dependence (NEID). Energy import cost/GDP (EC) 3.
CO2 intensity of GDP (CI). Compare some energy security indicators of Vietnam and countries around the world CHAPTER 4. SOLUTIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS. SWOT analysis of Vietnam's energy security.
Forecasting world energy development trends. Context of national energy development. SWOT analysis of the energy industry 4. Solutions and recommendations 4.
Solutions for mobilizing and allocating investment capital. Solutions on mechanisms and policies 4. Solutions for environmental protection and response to climate change, science and technology. Solutions for training and human resource development.
Solutions for security, defense and foreign affairs 4. Solutions to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 CONCLUSION. Rationale of the research Throughout human evolution, the source of energy used has changed according with the progress of scientific and technical knowledge. Humans have constantly searched for new energy sources.
The dawn of the new millennium brought a newfound understanding about the future of energy sources, born from the oil-crisis of 1973-1974. Today, energy security is comprehensively considered, encompassing various aspects such as environmental protection, ensuring reasonable prices, and the ability to respond to emergency situations in the face of economic fluctuations, disease outbreaks, political tensions, and global climate change. However, the goal of ensuring national energy security faces many challenges. Vietnam's energy economy has undergone rapid changes over the past few decades, transitioning from an agricultural economy reliant on traditional biomass fuels to a modern mixed economy.
The reality is that Vietnam has numerous domestic energy sources, such as crude oil, coal, natural gas, and hydropower. Yet, the traditional primary resource of hydropower has essentially been fully exploited, and the potential for the development of small hydropower is limited. In the past, crude oil and coal exports significantly contributed to the national budget. However, since 2015, Vietnam has become an energy importer and a net importer of coal, a trend that is increasing due to the high growth rate of energy demand for economic development and daily consumption.
This trend is putting pressure on the infrastructure of the energy sector. Oil and gas output in some large fields has rapidly declined, and the development of new fields in the East Sea faces many challenges. With current reserves, Vietnam can still exploit coal for more than 70 years, crude oil for 20 years, and natural gas for 40 years. According to the Vietnam Energy Outlook Report 2021, from the period 2011 to 2021, the average rate of primary energy consumption increased by 7.2% per year, and this rate is forecasted to reach 8.
This represents a very rapid increase compared to other countries in the region and the world. Therefore, it is projected that from 2021 to 2030, fuel imports will triple and account for three-fourths of Vietnam's energy consumption. The trend toward dependence on coal, oil, and natural gas imports is apparent, which will result in a rising proportion of coal, oil, and natural gas import costs in the gross domestic income. During the period 2000-2021, national energy strategies and development plans for each energy sub-sector were assigned to different agencies, resulting in a lack of cohesion and a fragmented overall picture of the goals set by the national energy development strategy.
Moreover, certain plans failed to sufficiently address energy demand-side factors, and the results of policies and programs aimed at promoting economical and effective energy utilization have been modest. These limitations need to be researched and addressed, especially as Vietnam moves forward with the implementation of the energy goals and commitments outlined in the Paris Agreement on climate change. Numerous domestic and foreign authors, such as Chester (2010), Hughes (2009), and Sovacool (2011) have recognized the importance of energy security and have researched various aspects of it, including the impact of climate change on the energy transition process. Most studies typically focus on analyzing concepts, factors influencing energy security, and methods of measuring it, often associated with specific indicators.
However, research on Vietnam's energy security remains limited, with few documents providing an in-depth analysis of the country's current situation and changes in energy security over an extended period. Therefore, a clear overall picture of the energy industry's development in Vietnam has not yet been presented. In general, the issue of energy security in Vietnam still exhibits several gaps that can be explored for research and improvement. The topic of "Evaluating Energy Security Performance in Vietnam from 2000-2021" is of utmost urgency due to profound changes in the global and Vietnamese energy landscape during this period.
The volatility in the international energy market, geopolitical tensions, and the persistent risks of economic and climate-related disruptions all pose significant threats to Vietnam's energy security. Consequently, conducting a comprehensive assessment of the country's energy policies and strategies over the past two decades is not only timely but also essential. This study will analyze the energy sector and the current state of Vietnam's energy security, examining the impact of energy security policies implemented from 2000 to 2021. It will identify opportunities and challenges in the energy industry in the current context.
The research results will contribute useful information to support policymakers, researchers, and management agencies in assessing the current state of national energy security, and in building and effectively implementing strategies and policies for ensuring Vietnam's sustainable energy future. General research objectives The primary objective of this study is to assess the current situation and complex changes in Vietnam's energy security during the period 2000-2021, while analyzing the impact of implemented policies on enhancing energy security. Additionally, the research will explore emerging opportunities and challenges in Vietnam's energy industry, aiming to develop and propose solutions that contribute to supporting policymakers, researchers, and management agencies in developing strategies and policies to ensure the country's sustainable energy future. Specific research objectives - Identify appropriate metrics to evaluate Vietnam's energy security.
~ Provide a summary oflessons learned from global experiences in developing and implementing energy security policies that are relevant to Vietnam. - Analyze the current state of Vietnam's energy security in the period 2000- 2021, identify changes in energy security developments during this period. Systematic analysis of Vietnam's energy policies and strategies conducted over the period 2000-2021 in the context of national and international developments. From there, evaluate the impact of issued policies on Vietnam's energy security.