VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY VU THI HUONG KHUE A STUDY ON A RANKING METHOD FOR THE PROVINCIAL ROAD TRAFFIC SAFETY INDEX IN VIETNAM MASTER’S THESIS VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY VU THI HUONG KHUE A STUDY ON A RANKING METHOD FOR THE PROVINCIAL ROAD TRAFFIC SAFETY INDEX IN VIETNAM MAJOR: INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING CODE: 8900201.04QTD RESEARCH SUPERVISOR: Assoc. VU HOAI NAM Hanoi, 2021 COMMITMENT I pledge that this thesis is my own intellectual product. The thesis was conducted with integrity and no data has ever been published in any other works. Hanoi, July the …., 2021 Author Vu Thi Huong Khue ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would first like to thank my thesis supervisor Assoc.
Vu Hoai Nam of the Department of Highway and Traffic engineering at National University of Civil Engineering. The door to Assoc. Vu Hoai Nam office was always open whenever I ran into a trouble spot or had a question about my research or writing. He consistently allowed this paper to be my own work, but steered me in the right the direction whenever he thought I needed it.
I would also like to acknowledge the experts as the second readers of this thesis: Prof. Nguyen Dinh Duc – Director of the Infrastructure Engineering program at Vietnam Japan University; Prof. Hironori Kato – Co-Director of the Infrastructure Engineering program at Vietnam Japan University; Dr. Phan Le Binh – Lecturer of the Infrastructure Engineering program at Vietnam Japan University; Prof.
Shinichi Takeda – Lecturer of the Infrastructure Engineering program at Vietnam Japan University; and other lecturers of the Infrastructure Engineering program at Vietnam Japan University. Without their valuable comments, this research could not have been successfully conducted. Finally, I must express my very profound gratitude to my parents and to my boyfriend for providing me with unfailing support and continuous encouragement throughout my years of study and through the process of researching and writing this thesis. This accomplishment would not have been possible without them.
Author Vu Thi Huong Khue CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS CHAPTER 1. Goals and objectives. Findings and Research contributions. Vietnam road safety in the recent years.
Road safety statistics. Current road safety ranking by Vietnamese Government. Literature Review on Road safety ranking methods. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method.
Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method. Several studies by Vietnamese researchers. The requirements of the new method in the context of Vietnam. The selection of new road safety performance indicators for the model.
The requirements of the proposal indicators. Type of indicators. The proposal indicators. Ranking Model Development.
The method procedure. Traffic accident data source. Population data source. Results score ranking.
The DEA as the reference method. Reasons of choosing DEA model. Results DEA score ranking. Comparison and Discussion.
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS. Recommendations and further studies. 59 LIST OF TABLES Page Table 2.1: The percentage changing of road traffic accidents, deaths and injuries due to RTAs from 2016 to 2018 .2: List of criticized provinces by the Deputy Prime Minister .1: Road traffic accidents statistics characteristics. Risk indicators characteristics .2: List of provinces stayed in low position in increasing RSIs or tend to reduce RSIs but still being in the Government's criticism list (2016-2018) .3: List of provinces and cities having sudden increase/decrease in statistics from 2016 to 2018 .4: z-value transforming of 63 Vietnamese provinces from 2016 to 2018 (R1) 40 Table 4.5: z-value transforming of 63 Vietnamese provinces from 2016 to 2018 (R2) 41 Table 5.1: Input and output data for DEA method.1: The denominators Nij of the data set in 2016 .2: The denominators Nij of the data set in 2017 .3: The denominators Nij of the data set in 2018.
81 i LIST OF FIGURES Pages Figure 2.1: Mean and standard deviation of Total number of road traffic accidents, total number of deaths and injuries due to RTAs from 2016 to 2018 .2: Twenty provinces and cities having the highest and the lowest total number of road traffic accidents, total number of deaths and injuries due to RTAs in 2016 .3: Twenty provinces and cities having the highest and the lowest total number of road traffic accidents, total number of deaths and injuries due to RTAs in 2017 .4: Twenty provinces and cities having the highest and the lowest total number of road traffic accidents, total number of deaths and injuries due to RTAs in 2018 .5: Road safety factors trend in 63 provinces nationwide from 2016 to 2018.6: The distribution chart of road traffic accidents, deaths and injuries due to road traffic accidents and population of 63 provinces and cities nationwide in 2018 .7: The distribution chart of road traffic accidents, deaths and injuries due to road traffic accidents and car registered of 63 provinces and cities nationwide in 2018 .8: The distribution chart of road traffic accidents, deaths and injuries due to road traffic accidents of 63 provinces 2016-2018 .1: Normal distribution color and scale for road safety ranking principles .2: Research methodology flowchart .1: Distribution chart of RTAs, F and J from the smallest to the largest in 63 provinces nationwide (2016-2018) .2: Distribution chart of R1 in 63 provinces and cities nationwide (2016-2018) .3: Distribution chart of R2 in 63 provinces and cities nationwide (2016-2018) .4: z-values distribution of R1 on control chart .5: z-values distribution of R2 on control chart .6: z-score and rank of 63 provinces from 2016 to 2018 by using R1 .7: z-score and rank of 63 provinces from 2016 to 2018 by using R2 .8: Road safety distribution map in 63 provinces from 2016 to 2018 by ranking R1 .9: Road safety distribution map in 63 provinces from 2016 to 2018 by ranking R2 .1: DEA score and rank of 63 provinces from 2016 to 2018 .2: Road safety distribution map in 63 provinces from 2016 to 2018 by using DEA method. 51 ii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS WHO World Health Organization M.T Ministry of Transport M.S Ministry of Public Security N.C National Traffic Safety Committee AHP Analytic Hierarchy Process DEA Data Envelopment Analysis RTAs Road traffic accidents RSIs Road safety indicators/indices RS Road safety F Fatalities/Deaths J Injuries/Injured people S. Standard deviation iii CHAPTER 1. Overview Road safety is an essential element of daily life and the government or public agencies are constantly drove to assure that their citizens can take place without incident.
Nonetheless, road traffic accidents currently act as the 9th leading cause of fatality in the world (roughly 1.35 million deaths per year due to road traffic collisions) (WHO, 2018). [1] On the one hand, to assess the effort of each nation as well as each area in ensuring road safety, countries use road safety indicators as a ranking scale. As the result, experts and specialists study and develop policies, indices to improve and ensure road safety. [1] Vietnam has been applying simple indicators to indicate the road safety performance of the provinces and the cities.
However, these indicators have shown the evidence of drawbacks and need to be adjusted or replaced to achieve better evaluations on the national and regional road safety level. Background Safety can be simply illustrated as the nonappearance of a hazard or vulnerability. In the field of transportation, road safety can be defined by the human capacity in moving freely without injury or fatality. An admirably harmless traffic network would not occur collisions within differing travelers.
Although non-accident is an excellent situation in theory and various transportation offices set a goal of zero fatalities on routes, people endure getting wounded or died on paths and roadways along the country. The objection offer in the road safety course is to reduce the density of road collisions and the following fatalities and wounds by fully applying presently possible instruments, expertise, and technology. [1] In additions, road safety experts usually assess safety by the amount and proportion of traffic collisions and by the severity of those accidents, which represented by three parameters: crash frequency, crash rates and crash outcomes. In the simplest terms, 1 crash frequency is the total road accidents appearing per year or another time unit.
Meanwhile, crash rates are the road collisions standardized by a specific group of people or metric of exposure. For example, crashes per 100,000 people; crashes per miles traveled, etc. Crash outcomes can be determined by the kinds of injuries suffered to the crashes’ victims, ordinarily classified by the casualties and fatalities. Exposure stands for the amount of movements in which accidents may take place.
The traffic volume frequently attributes the travelling turns, calling the number of people per kilometer of driving achieved. Therefore, any individual activity is displayed the hazard of collision, in particular the road traffic accidents. [2] It is evident that people have many ways to circulate: walking, by bike, by car, by public transport, etc. However, these ways absolutely not affect the similar accidents stage.
Therefore, the chosen exposure is a condition that affect to the number of deaths and injured people in road crashes. Moreover, the danger threat to the road users is possibly depended on different means of traffic transport. For instance, the lower the hazard of accident to walkers, the higher the rate of pedestrians in traffic participating. [2] Accident rate is the threat of accident per unit of exposure and is a statistical factor of traffic collisions.
Despite the fact that an accident rate is not similar to a probability estimation, it is an effective parameter because the accident probability can be considered to be proportional to the accident rate, in the theoretical meaning. In fact, the greater the accident percentage, the greater the probability of an accident on a trip. Occasionally, the definitions of “risk of accident”, “level of risk”, or “accident risk” will be synonymous with accident rate. Moreover, the accident rate is not independent on the exposure although it is defined per unit of exposure.
Admirably, an exposure must be characterized when it is separated with the accident rate. Unfortunately, this argument is still in theory. [2] Additionally, the probability of traffic collision is influenced by a huge amount of risk indicators associating the traffic system elements, including infrastructure and traffic 2 control devices, vehicles and road users. An accident risk indicator is any factor raising the probability of traffic collisions.
In another word, although risk indicators are demographically linked to the probability of accidents, but not all of them can be observed as road collisions causes. [2] Injury severity hand over the accident’s consequence in terms of injured people or property damage. In theory, the harshness of an accident outcome is a continuous variable extending from the tiniest obstacle to accidents with numerous deaths. In reality, elementary scales, assuming just several disconnected values, are frequently created to illustrate collision or harm severity.
For example, administrator road collision data in almost nations categorize road traffic crash by severity in consonance with the simple scale below: fatal accident, accident resulting in serious injury, accident resulting in slight injury and property damage accidents. However, this raw classification is not commensurate between nations and regions. Problem statement Recently, the increasing number of fatalities and injuries caused by the road traffic accident is still a complicated problem that each country has to cope with. An average of 1.3 million people dies and between 20 and 50 million people are injured in road traffic accidents each year (WHO, 2018).
This report shows that road traffic injuries are in a great concern to the community, especially for underdeveloped and developing countries. [3] Vietnam is the country having a high rate of 23.4 fatalities per 100,000 capitals due to traffic accidents (WHO, 2018). In the recent years, Vietnam puts a lot of effort to struggling with the deduction of human loss in road safety. The common approaches that the Vietnamese government has been applying are the 5Es namely Engineering, Enforcement, Education, Economics and Enablement.